Top Day Recommendations
6.16.11
Jobless claims come under better than expected but still above 400K at 414K. Continuing claims at 3.7 million. That’s a disturbingly huge number. On a better note, housing starts up 3.5% with permits up to 612K against an expected 563K.
Overnight, 2 year Greek paper is flirting with 30%. That’s basically a default number. Greece doesn’t need a restructure at this point, it needs a monstrous handout. Of course, the stock market woke up to all of this yesterday and valuations were revalued lower. June traditionally isn’t the best of months for stocks but this performance is exceeding the need. The 1250 target level in the S+P mentioned at the end of last month was effectively reached with yesterday’s dismal showing. Gold has become a currency of first and last resort. I’ve included a chart of Ec/gold as the obvious money flow is to sell the EC and buy gold with it. The trend line looks fairly solid. The chart moves higher when you read left to right. The only caveat with gold is if everything goes into a death spiral and gold has to be sold as part of a universal margin call. Yesterday’s action had the feel of 2008. If the Euro zone really melts, the foreign banks are at risk. The ECB is capitalized with 10 billion dollars and holds 74 billion in debt.
Week of June 13 - June 17
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| Jun 14 | 08:30 | Retail Sales | May | -1.0% | -0.7% | 0.5% | ||||||||
| Jun 14 | 08:30 | Retail Sales ex-auto | May | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | ||||||||
| Jun 14 | 08:30 | PPI | May | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.8% | ||||||||
| Jun 14 | 08:30 | Core PPI | May | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | ||||||||
| Jun 14 | 10:00 | Business Inventories | Apr | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | ||||||||
| Jun 15 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 06/10 | NA | NA | -0.4% | ||||||||
| Jun 15 | 08:30 | CPI | May | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | ||||||||
| Jun 15 | 08:30 | Core CPI | May | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | ||||||||
| Jun 15 | 08:30 | Empire Manufacturing | Jun | 7.0 | 10.0 | 11.9 | ||||||||
| Jun 15 | 09:00 | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | Apr | NA | NA | $27.2B | ||||||||
| Jun 15 | 09:15 | Industrial Production | May | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | ||||||||
| Jun 15 | 09:15 | Capacity Utilization | May | 77.0% | 77.0% | 76.9% | ||||||||
| Jun 15 | 10:00 | NAHB Housing Market Index | Jun | 16 | 16 | 16 | ||||||||
| Jun | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 06/11 | NA | NA | -4.845K | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| 15 | ||||||||||||||
| Jun 16 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 06/11 | 425K | 421K | 427K | ||||||||
| Jun 16 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 06/04 | 3700K | 3690K | 3676K | ||||||||
| Jun 16 | 08:30 | Housing Starts | May | 540K | 540K | 523K | ||||||||
| Jun 16 | 08:30 | Building Permits | May | 560K | 548K | 551K | ||||||||
| Jun 16 | 08:30 | Current Account Balance | Q1 | -$130.0B | -$130.0B | -$113.3B | ||||||||
| Jun 16 | 10:00 | Philadelphia Fed | Jun | 5.0 | 7.0 | 3.9 | ||||||||
| Jun 17 | 09:55 | Mich Sentiment | Jun | 72.0 | 73.5 | 74.3 | ||||||||
| Jun 17 | 10:00 | Leading Indicators | May | 0.2% | 0.4% | -0.3 | ||||||||
- Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Some of these numbers are badly skewed due to Monday’s holiday when some markets were closed, others open
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Sept Emini S+P | N | 1240 | 1249.25 | 1249.25 | 1277 | 1285 | 1306 |
| Emini Naz | N | 2162 | 2189 | 2187.50 | 2234.50 | 2272 | 2323 |
| Yen | PRD | 123.61 | 124.07 | 123.19 | 124.24 | 125.26 | 125.99 |
| EC | N | 140.49 | 141.78 | 139.28 | 143.22 | 145.49 | 147.86 |
| Sep 10 Year | P | 122.11 | 123.02 | 122.28 | 124.20 | 124.01 | 124.18 |
| Sep 30 Year | P | 123.13 | 124.18 | 124.10 | 126.24 | 126.20 | 127.17 |
| Soybeans | N | 13.53 | 13.70 | 13.45 | 13.77 | 14.11 | 14.35 |
| Corn | N | 7.014 | 7.44 | 7.01 | 7.50 | 8.14 | 8.42 |
| August Gold | P | 1509.7 | 1529.3 | 1515.2 | 1536.4 | 1549.4 | 1566.3 |
| July | N | 34.91 | 35.70 | 34.82 | 35.98 | 37.34 | 38.50 |
| Silver | |||||||
| July Copper | N | 393 | 398 | 405 | 417 | 413 | 422 |
| Aug Crude | P | 95.66 | 97.58 | 93.05 | 98.95 | 102.10 | 104.86 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.