Top Day Recommendations
6.17.11
Quadruple witching day so expect the unexpected. There’s also U of Michigan consumer sentiment and Leading Economic Indicators. Greece reshuffles their cabinet (the Defense Minister is now the Finance Minister, the Finance Minister is now the Environmental Minister) and apparently the workout for Greek debt will be a Vienna style solution. The can has been kicked further down the road. The ultimate valuation for the EC is lower, say 130.00. The EC finance ministers meet again on Sunday.
Week of June 13 - June 17
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| Jun 14 | 08:30 | Retail Sales | May | -1.0% | -0.7% | 0.5% | ||||||||
| Jun 14 | 08:30 | Retail Sales ex-auto | May | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | ||||||||
| Jun 14 | 08:30 | PPI | May | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.8% | ||||||||
| Jun 14 | 08:30 | Core PPI | May | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | ||||||||
| Jun 14 | 10:00 | Business Inventories | Apr | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | ||||||||
| Jun 15 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 06/10 | NA | NA | -0.4% | ||||||||
| Jun 15 | 08:30 | CPI | May | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | ||||||||
| Jun 15 | 08:30 | Core CPI | May | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | ||||||||
| Jun 15 | 08:30 | Empire Manufacturing | Jun | 7.0 | 10.0 | 11.9 | ||||||||
| Jun 15 | 09:00 | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | Apr | NA | NA | $27.2B | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| Jun 15 | 09:15 | Industrial Production | May | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | ||||||||
| Jun 15 | 09:15 | Capacity Utilization | May | 77.0% | 77.0% | 76.9% | ||||||||
| Jun 15 | 10:00 | NAHB Housing Market Index | Jun | 16 | 16 | 16 | ||||||||
| Jun 15 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 06/11 | NA | NA | -4.845K | ||||||||
| Jun 16 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 06/11 | 425K | 421K | 427K | ||||||||
| Jun 16 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 06/04 | 3700K | 3690K | 3676K | ||||||||
| Jun 16 | 08:30 | Housing Starts | May | 540K | 540K | 523K | ||||||||
| Jun 16 | 08:30 | Building Permits | May | 560K | 548K | 551K | ||||||||
| Jun 16 | 08:30 | Current Account Balance | Q1 | -$130.0B | -$130.0B | -$113.3B | ||||||||
| Jun 16 | 10:00 | Philadelphia Fed | Jun | 5.0 | 7.0 | 3.9 | ||||||||
| Jun 17 | 09:55 | Mich Sentiment | Jun | 72.0 | 73.5 | 74.3 | ||||||||
| Jun 17 | 10:00 | Leading Indicators | May | 0.2% | 0.4% | -0.3 | ||||||||
- Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Some of these numbers are badly skewed due to Monday’s holiday when some markets were closed, others open
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Sept Emini S+P | N | 1240 | 1249.25 | 1254 | 1278 | 1285 | 1306 |
| Emini Naz | N | 2162 | 2189 | 2176 | 2214 | 2272 | 2323 |
| Yen | PRD | 123.61 | 124.07 | 123.54 | 124.78 | 125.26 | 125.99 |
| EC | N | 140.49 | 141.78 | 140.32 | 142.56 | 145.49 | 147.86 |
| Sep 10 Year | P | 122.11 | 123.02 | 123.03 | 124.18 | 124.01 | 124.18 |
| Sep 30 Year | P | 123.13 | 124.18 | 124.22 | 126.28 | 126.20 | 127.17 |
| Soybeans | N | 13.53 | 13.70 | 13.41 | 13.66 | 14.11 | 14.35 |
| Corn | N | 7.014 | 7.44 | 6.905 | 7.20 | 8.14 | 8.42 |
| August Gold | P | 1509.7 | 1529.3 | 1523.2 | 1535.2 | 1549.4 | 1566.3 |
| July Silver | N | 34.91 | 35.70 | 34.84 | 35.56 | 37.34 | 38.50 |
| July Copper | N | 393 | 398 | 406 | 415 | 413 | 422 |
| Aug Crude | PRD | 95.66 | 97.58 | 94.18 | 96.12 | 102.10 | 104.86 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.