Top Day Recommendations
Greek PM wins his vote of confidence as the vote breaks perfectly along party lines. Now comes the hard part. The citizens outside Parliament didn’t seem too eager to adopt austerity measures. The trade in the wake of the decision was fairly interesting to the point of being predictable. First, the most modest of relief rallies was immediately followed by the more traditional response of "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" and the EC lost a cent. This cent has since been made up as we now approach the next risk event, the FOMC interest rate decision which will sneak up on you as the communiqué will be released at 12:30. Then we have yet another press conference by the Fed Chairman. (Weren’t these supposed the quarterly?) Will there be a hint of QE3? Can interest rates stay at 0 forever or will the end of QE2 result in a normalization of rates?
And even before that we have the IEA numbers for crude and its products at 10:30.
FedEx beat earnings and guidance was good.
The ratings agencies are starting to ramp up attention on Spain. 21% unemployment can do that.
As with all FOMC rate decision days, it’s best to tread lightly. Quantum revisions are more probable than not in terms of valuation.
Week of June 20 - June 24
|Date||ET||Release||For||Actual||Briefing.com Forecast||Briefing.com Consensus||Prior||Revised From|
|Jun 21||10:00||Existing Home Sales||May||4.70M||4.78M||5.05M|
|Jun 22||07:00||MBA Mortgage Index||06/17||NA||NA||+13%|
|Jun 22||10:00||FHFA Housing Price Index||Apr||NA||NA||0.3%|
|Jun 22||10:30||Crude Inventories||06/18||NA||NA||-3.406M|
|Jun 22||12:30||FOMC Rate Decision||Jun||0.25%||0.25%||0.25%|
|Jun 23||08:30||Initial Claims||06/18||425K||418K||414K|
|Jun 23||08:30||Continuing Claims||06/11||3700K||3680K||3675K|
|Jun 23||10:00||New Home Sales||May||290K||305K||323K|
|Jun 24||08:30||GDP - Third Estimate||Q1||1.8%||1.8%||1.8%|
|Jun 24||08:30||GDP Deflator - Third Estimate||Q1||1.9%||1.9%||1.9%|
|Jun 24||08:30||Durable Orders||May||2.5%||1.0%||-3.6%|
|Jun 24||08:30||Durable Orders -ex Transportation||May||-0.5%||0.6%||-1.6%||-1.5|
- Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Some of these numbers are badly skewed due to Monday’s holiday when some markets were closed, others open
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
|Sept Emini S+P||P||1233.50||1249.90||1275||1296||1284.50||1303.00|
|Sep 10 Year||N||121.83||122.23||123.15||124.03||124.25||125.21|
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL