Top Day Recommendations
6.24.11
Curious day yesterday with the IEA making a meager release from the strategic petroleum reserves. The amount of oil is equivalent to 16 hours of US demand. But it was significant in its message. Now the Federal Reserve apparently wants to manage the oil market. They can’t lower rates anymore. Stimulus thru QE2 is coming to an end. Now what? Well you can stimulate growth through lower oil prices. Higher gasoline prices are a tax on us all. The Fed knew that oil prices would be transitory when margin requirements were about to be raised. They couldn’t knock down Brent because they have no influence over margin rates on foreign exchanges but they do have influence over the SPR. Then there was another boost to equity values in the afternoon when there was a Reuter’s story that Greece had reached a 5 year austerity agreement with the IMF and the EU. The problem isn’t with the EU and the IMF, it’s the Greek parliament. They begin debate on Monday evening.
Durables come in better than expected at 1.6%. GDP for Q1 at 1.9%. Tone improves on this release.
Week of June 20 - June 24
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Forecast | Briefing.com Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| Jun 21 | 10:00 | Existing Home Sales | May | 4.70M | 4.78M | 5.05M | ||||||||
| Jun 22 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 06/17 | NA | NA | +13% | ||||||||
| Jun 22 | 10:00 | FHFA Housing Price Index | Apr | NA | NA | 0.3% | ||||||||
| Jun 22 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 06/18 | NA | NA | -3.406M | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Forecast | Briefing.com Consensus | Prior | Revised From | |||||||||||||
| Jun 22 | 12:30 | FOMC Rate Decision | Jun | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 23 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 06/18 | 425K | 418K | 414K | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 23 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 06/11 | 3700K | 3680K | 3675K | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 23 | 10:00 | New Home Sales | May | 290K | 305K | 323K | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 24 | 08:30 | GDP - Third Estimate | Q1 | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 24 | 08:30 | GDP Deflator - Third Estimate | Q1 | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 24 | 08:30 | Durable Orders | May | 2.5% | 1.0% | -3.6% | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 24 | 08:30 | Durable Orders -ex Transportation | May | -0.5% | 0.6% | -1.6% | -1.5 | ||||||||||||||
- Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Some of these numbers are badly skewed due to Monday’s holiday when some markets were closed, others open
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Sept Emini S+P | PRD (D) | 1233.50 | 1249.90 | 1262 | 1286 | 1284.50 | 1303.00 |
| Emini Naz | N | 2130 | 2160 | 2206 | 2260 | 2236 | 2282 |
| Yen | PRD (D) | 122.80 | 123.89 | 123.80 | 124.98 | 125.59 | 126.30 |
| EC | PRD (D) | 138.40 | 140.58 | 140.82 | 142.93 | 144.75 | 146.74 |
| Sep 10 Year | PRD
(U) |
121.83 | 122.23 | 123.27 | 124.22 | 124.25 | 125.21 |
| Sep 30 Year | N | 122.17 | 124.07 | 125.24 | 126.29 | 127.02 | 128.07 |
| Soybeans | N | 12.91 | 13.12 | 12.95 | 13.36 | 13.72 | 141.11 |
| Corn | N | 6.26 | 6.63 | 6.51 | 7.12 | 7.64 | 8.29 |
| August Gold | P | 1499.8 | 1519.8 | 1504 | 1542 | 1551.4 | 1563.0 |
| July Silver | P | 33.60 | 34.75 | 34.30 | 36.03 | 36.70 | 37.50 |
| July Copper | N | 392 | 401 | 404 | 410 | 418 | 426 |
| Aug Crude | P | 87.14 | 90.21 | 88.98 | 93.76 | 98.37 | 103.40 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.