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All eyes on Greece with the first vote towards its austerity measures

Top Day Recommendations

6.29.11

All eyes on Greece this morning with the first vote towards adoption of austerity measures to allow the release of the first tranche of funding underway as this is written. All this is ultimately doing is throwing liquidity at the problem, not solving the problem. It’s apparent that markets aren’t concerned about any of this for the moment. Going into month end ahead of a holiday, crude and equities are both higher. Complacency rules the pre open as witnessed by the Swiss Franc/EC spread. SF is the EC just sanitized of all its attendant problems. The SF is actually down this morning while the EC is up. Oh well, who ever said that markets need to make sense? Today could be a day of reversals and the closer you get to Friday, expect to see exposures closed. We also get crude inventories today.

Week of June 27 - July 01

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Forecast Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 27 08:30 Personal Income May 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
Jun 27 08:30 Personal Spending May 0.0% -0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4%
Jun 27 08:30 PCE Prices - Core May 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Jun 28 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Apr -3.8% -3.9% -3.61%
Jun 28 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun 59.0 60.7 60.8
Jun 29 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 06/25 NA NA -5.9%
Jun 29 10:00 Pending Home Sales May 2.0% 0.7% -11.6%
Jun 29 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/25 NA NA -1.711M
Jun 30 08:30 Initial Claims 06/25 420K 421K 429K
Jun 30 08:30 Continuing Claims 06/25 3700K 3700K 3697K
Jun 30 09:45 Chicago PMI Jun 51.0 53.8 56.6
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Forecast Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 01 09:55 Michigan Sentiment - Final Jun 71.0 71.8 71.8
Jul 01 10:00 ISM Index Jun 49.5 51.3 53.5
Jul 01 10:00 Construction Spending May 0.3% 0.0% 0.4%
Jul 01 15:00 Auto Sales Jun NA NA 3.95M
Jul 01 15:00 Truck Sales Jun NA NA 5.14M

- Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

P is Positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

Some of these numbers are badly skewed due to Monday’s holiday when some markets were closed, others open

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2

Sept Emini S+P PRD (u) 1233 1248 1279 1310 1286 1308
Emini Naz PRD (u) 2128 2168 2255 2315 2252 2297
Yen N 123.17 123.78 122.92 123.86 125.01 125.65
EC PRD (U) 138.98 140.18 141.38 144.62 143.23 145.26
Sep 10 Year PRD

(d)

122.31 123.27 122.15 124.06 124.26 125.26
Sep 30 Year N 124.11 125.15 125.11 123.18 127.12 128.05
Sept Soybeans N 12.605 12.90 13.13 13.38 13.52 13.84
Sept Corn N 5.957 6.32 6.52 6.89 7.13 7.56
August Gold N 1459.5 1481.1 1494 1512 1541 1589
July Silver N 32.46 33.40 33.38 34.38 36.02 37.71
July Copper N 394 404 406 413 415 421
Aug N 86.19 86.71 91.09 9.51 9472 9821
Crude

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.