Top Day Recommendations
6.30.11
Weekly jobless claims come in at 428K. An elevated level. This fails to move markets, however.
Chicago Purchasing Managers comes in at 10. 56.6% was the last reading. This is the most important metric of the day. Overnight, basically more of the same. Equities drift higher going into month end and the holiday.
The end of QE2 is nigh. One indication of this is the NOB and how it has turned over; that’s the bond against the 10 year note. See the chart. We are heading back to Zero.
Looking at some other markets under the crosscurrents…
The slope on the crude oil remains negative. The market tagged and rode the lower Bollinger band and now prices are migrating back to a median price.
As for the EC, the currency everyone’s been watching through the teargas of Greece…
Fundamentals had suggested a breakdown (which is probably inevitable) but you can go broke waiting for the inevitable. The Bollingers have flattened out suggesting a tag of the 146.50 level before heading down again.
Week of June 27 - July 01
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Forecast | Briefing.com Consensus | Prior | Revised From | |||||||||||||
| Jun 27 | 08:30 | Personal Income | May | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | |||||||||||||
| Jun 27 | 08:30 | Personal Spending | May | 0.0% | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | |||||||||||||
| Jun 27 | 08:30 | PCE Prices - Core | May | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||||||||||||||
| Jun 28 | 09:00 | Case-Shiller 20-city Index | Apr | -3.8% | -3.9% | -3.61% | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 28 | 10:00 | Consumer Confidence | Jun | 59.0 | 60.7 | 60.8 | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 29 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 06/25 | NA | NA | -5.9% | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 29 | 10:00 | Pending Home Sales | May | 2.0% | 0.7% | -11.6% | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 29 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 06/25 | NA | NA | -1.711M | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 30 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 06/25 | 420K | 421K | 429K | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 30 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 06/25 | 3700K | 3700K | 3697K | |||||||||||||||
| Jun 30 | 09:45 | Chicago PMI | Jun | 51.0 | 53.8 | 56.6 | |||||||||||||||
| Jul 01 | 09:55 | Michigan Sentiment - Final | Jun | 71.0 | 71.8 | 71.8 | |||||||||||||||
| Jul 01 | 10:00 | ISM Index | Jun | 49.5 | 51.3 | 53.5 | |||||||||||||||
| Jul 01 | 10:00 | Construction Spending | May | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | |||||||||||||||
| Jul 01 | 15:00 | Auto Sales | Jun | NA | NA | 3.95M | |||||||||||||||
| Jul 01 | 15:00 | Truck Sales | Jun | NA | NA | 5.14M | |||||||||||||||
- Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Some of these numbers are badly skewed due to Monday’s holiday when some markets were closed, others open
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Sept Emini S+P | P | 1233 | 1248 | 1295 | 1314 | 1286 | 1308 |
| Emini Naz | P | 2128 | 2168 | 2279 | 2315 | 2252 | 2297 |
| Yen | N | 123.17 | 123.78 | 123.16 | 124.80 | 125.01 | 125.65 |
| EC | P | 138.98 | 140.18 | 143.18 | 144.91 | 143.23 | 145.26 |
| Sep 10 Year | N | 122.31 | 123.27 | 122.14 | 123.12 | 124.26 | 125.26 |
| Sep 30 Year | N | 124.11 | 125.15 | 123.01 | 124.10 | 127.12 | 128.05 |
| Sept Soybeans | N | 12.605 | 12.90 | 13.15 | 13.35 | 13.52 | 13.84 |
| Sept Corn | PRD (u) | 5.957 | 6.32 | 6.635 | 6.945 | 7.13 | 7.56 |
| August Gold | PRD (U) | 1459.5 | 1481.1 | 1502.8 | 1521.3 | 1541 | 1589 |
| July Silver | PRD (U) | 32.46 | 33.40 | 34.10 | 35.19 | 36.02 | 37.71 |
| July Copper | PRD (U) | 394 | 404 | 413 | 429 | 415 | 421 |
| Aug Crude | PRD (U) | 86.19 | 86.71 | 9300 | 96.18 | 9472 | 9821 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.