Top Day Recommendations
7.01.011
Welcome to July.
Today’s notable eco release will be the Institute for Supply Management report at 10. This may be a tree falling in the woods with no one around to hear it however.
Bon voyage to QE2. Greece muddles on. Common sense would have suggested that with this situation and its potential ability to turn into a contagion the EC as a currency would be under attack and gold as an alternative currency would be under accumulation and soaring to higher levels. The reality is that the EC has held up remarkably well and gold continues to be under pressure. The buyer in the EC is the Chinese. They are moving currency reserves from dollars to Euros to partially diffuse the situation to help prevent an unraveling of the situation. With the absence of further stimulus, a commodity asset bubble seems unlikely and yesterday grains were revalued to the downside based on the size of the corn crop. Expect to see liquidation pressure in gold and silver.
Meanwhile, all hope that an 11th hour resolution to the budget impasse comes about.
Week of June 27 - July 01
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Forecast | Briefing.com Consensus | Prior | Revised From | |||||||
| Jun 27 | 08:30 | Personal Income | May | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | |||||||
| Jun 27 | 08:30 | Personal Spending | May | 0.0% | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | |||||||
| Jun 27 | 08:30 | PCE Prices - Core | May | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Forecast | Briefing.com Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| Jun 28 | 09:00 | Case-Shiller 20-city Index | Apr | -3.8% | -3.9% | -3.61% | ||||||||
| Jun 28 | 10:00 | Consumer Confidence | Jun | 59.0 | 60.7 | 60.8 | ||||||||
| Jun 29 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 06/25 | NA | NA | -5.9% | ||||||||
| Jun 29 | 10:00 | Pending Home Sales | May | 2.0% | 0.7% | -11.6% | ||||||||
| Jun 29 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 06/25 | NA | NA | -1.711M | ||||||||
| Jun 30 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 06/25 | 420K | 421K | 429K | ||||||||
| Jun 30 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 06/25 | 3700K | 3700K | 3697K | ||||||||
| Jun 30 | 09:45 | Chicago PMI | Jun | 51.0 | 53.8 | 56.6 | ||||||||
| Jul 01 | 09:55 | Michigan Sentiment - Final | Jun | 71.0 | 71.8 | 71.8 | ||||||||
| Jul 01 | 10:00 | ISM Index | Jun | 49.5 | 51.3 | 53.5 | ||||||||
| Jul 01 | 10:00 | Construction Spending | May | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | ||||||||
| Jul 01 | 15:00 | Auto Sales | Jun | NA | NA | 3.95M | ||||||||
| Jul 01 | 15:00 | Truck Sales | Jun | NA | NA | 5.14M | ||||||||
- Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Some of these numbers are badly skewed due to Monday’s holiday when some markets were closed, others open
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Sept Emini S+P | P | 1233 | 1248 | 1306 | 1321 | 1286 | 1308 |
| Emini Naz | P | 2128 | 2168 | 2297 | 2338 | 2252 | 2297 |
| Yen | PRD (U) | 123.17 | 123.78 | 123.29 | 124.74 | 125.01 | 125.65 |
| EC | P | 138.98 | 140.18 | 144.19 | 145.31 | 143.23 | 145.26 |
| Sep 10 Year | N | 122.31 | 123.27 | 121.24 | 122.31 | 124.26 | 125.26 |
| Sep 30 Year | N | 124.11 | 125.15 | 122.06 | 123.27 | 127.12 | 128.05 |
| Sept Soybea | N | 12.605 | 12.90 | 12.76 | 13.224 | 13.52 | 13.84 |
| ns | |||||||
| Sept Corn | N | 5.957 | 6.32 | 5.85 | 6.22 | 7.13 | 7.56 |
| August Gold | N | 1459.5 | 1481.1 | 1490 | 1512 | 1541 | 1589 |
| Sept Silver | N | 32.46 | 33.40 | 34.13 | 35.17 | 36.02 | 37.71 |
| July Copper | P | 394 | 404 | 416 | 429 | 415 | 421 |
| Aug Crude | P | 86.19 | 86.71 | 93.10 | 96.20 | 9472 | 9821 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.