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Chinese are moving currency reserves from dollars to Euros

Top Day Recommendations

7.01.011

Welcome to July.

Today’s notable eco release will be the Institute for Supply Management report at 10. This may be a tree falling in the woods with no one around to hear it however.

Bon voyage to QE2. Greece muddles on. Common sense would have suggested that with this situation and its potential ability to turn into a contagion the EC as a currency would be under attack and gold as an alternative currency would be under accumulation and soaring to higher levels. The reality is that the EC has held up remarkably well and gold continues to be under pressure. The buyer in the EC is the Chinese. They are moving currency reserves from dollars to Euros to partially diffuse the situation to help prevent an unraveling of the situation. With the absence of further stimulus, a commodity asset bubble seems unlikely and yesterday grains were revalued to the downside based on the size of the corn crop. Expect to see liquidation pressure in gold and silver.

Meanwhile, all hope that an 11th hour resolution to the budget impasse comes about.

Week of June 27 - July 01

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Forecast Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 27 08:30 Personal Income May 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
Jun 27 08:30 Personal Spending May 0.0% -0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4%
Jun 27 08:30 PCE Prices - Core May 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Forecast Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 28 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Apr -3.8% -3.9% -3.61%
Jun 28 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun 59.0 60.7 60.8
Jun 29 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 06/25 NA NA -5.9%
Jun 29 10:00 Pending Home Sales May 2.0% 0.7% -11.6%
Jun 29 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/25 NA NA -1.711M
Jun 30 08:30 Initial Claims 06/25 420K 421K 429K
Jun 30 08:30 Continuing Claims 06/25 3700K 3700K 3697K
Jun 30 09:45 Chicago PMI Jun 51.0 53.8 56.6
Jul 01 09:55 Michigan Sentiment - Final Jun 71.0 71.8 71.8
Jul 01 10:00 ISM Index Jun 49.5 51.3 53.5
Jul 01 10:00 Construction Spending May 0.3% 0.0% 0.4%
Jul 01 15:00 Auto Sales Jun NA NA 3.95M
Jul 01 15:00 Truck Sales Jun NA NA 5.14M

- Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

P is Positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

Some of these numbers are badly skewed due to Monday’s holiday when some markets were closed, others open

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2

Sept Emini S+P P 1233 1248 1306 1321 1286 1308
Emini Naz P 2128 2168 2297 2338 2252 2297
Yen PRD (U) 123.17 123.78 123.29 124.74 125.01 125.65
EC P 138.98 140.18 144.19 145.31 143.23 145.26
Sep 10 Year N 122.31 123.27 121.24 122.31 124.26 125.26
Sep 30 Year N 124.11 125.15 122.06 123.27 127.12 128.05
Sept Soybea N 12.605 12.90 12.76 13.224 13.52 13.84
ns
Sept Corn N 5.957 6.32 5.85 6.22 7.13 7.56
August Gold N 1459.5 1481.1 1490 1512 1541 1589
Sept Silver N 32.46 33.40 34.13 35.17 36.02 37.71
July Copper P 394 404 416 429 415 421
Aug Crude P 86.19 86.71 93.10 96.20 9472 9821

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.