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China raises rates by .25 again

Top Day Recommendations

7.06.011

Now we have a downgrade of Portugal’s debt. The market should have baked this in but apparently not. China raises rates by .25 again and this also works to diminish risk taking. Tightest trading in S+P yesterday in eight days. This usually presages a change but there are a few caveats. First day back from a holiday is one reason. Lack of risk taking in front of Friday’s unemployment release is another. German factory orders expand but at a slower pace. Institute for Supply Management services index out today as well.

Week of July 04 - July 08

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Forecast Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 05 10:00 Factory Orders May 1.0% 1.0% -1.2%
Jul 06 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 07/02 NA NA -2.7%
Jul 06 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts Jun NA NA -4.3%
Jul 06 10:00 ISM Services Jun 52.0 54.0 54.6
Jul 07 08:15 ADP Employment Change Jun 50K 60K 38K
Jul 07 08:30 Initial Claims 07/02 425K 425K 428K
Jul 07 08:30 Continuing Claims 06/25 3700K 3700K 3702K
Jul 07 11:00 Crude Inventories 07/02 NA NA -4.375M
Jul 08 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 75K 80K 54K
Jul 08 08:30 Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jun 95K 110K 83K
Jul 08 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jun 9.2% 9.1% 9.1%
Jul 08 08:30 Average Workweek Jun 34.5 34.4 34.4
Jul 08 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Jul 08 10:00 Wholesale Inventories May 1.0% 0.9% 0.8%
Jul 08 15:00 Consumer Credit May $3.0B $3.5B $6.5B

-

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

P is Positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

Some of these numbers are badly skewed due to Monday’s holiday when some markets were closed, others open

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2

Sept P 1223 1282 1324.75 1340.25 1361 1388
Emini S+P
Emini Naz P 2133 2244 2358 2378 2413 2471
Yen N 122.28 123.43 123.01 124.02 124.54 123.56
EC P 139.06 141.92 142.49 144.97 144.39 148.06
Sep 10 Year N 119.18 150.25 122.05 123.09 124.03 126.07
Sep 30 Year N 119.07 120.30 122.24 123.29 125.20 128.19
Sept Soybeans N 12.56 12.83 12.994 13.25 13.37 13.64
Sept Corn N 5.41 5.74 6.165 6.317 6.68 7.29
August Gold N 1456.7 1471.7 1493.2 1525 1507 1529
Sept Silver N 32.23 33.12 32.24 36.13 34.95 35.90
Sept Copper P 427 429 430 437 433 435
Aug Crude P 94.35 94.67 94.99 98.13 95.39 95.79

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.