Top Day Recommendations
7.06.011
Now we have a downgrade of Portugal’s debt. The market should have baked this in but apparently not. China raises rates by .25 again and this also works to diminish risk taking. Tightest trading in S+P yesterday in eight days. This usually presages a change but there are a few caveats. First day back from a holiday is one reason. Lack of risk taking in front of Friday’s unemployment release is another. German factory orders expand but at a slower pace. Institute for Supply Management services index out today as well.
Week of July 04 - July 08
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Forecast | Briefing.com Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| Jul 05 | 10:00 | Factory Orders | May | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.2% | ||||||||
| Jul 06 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 07/02 | NA | NA | -2.7% | ||||||||
| Jul 06 | 07:30 | Challenger Job Cuts | Jun | NA | NA | -4.3% | ||||||||
| Jul 06 | 10:00 | ISM Services | Jun | 52.0 | 54.0 | 54.6 | ||||||||
| Jul 07 | 08:15 | ADP Employment Change | Jun | 50K | 60K | 38K | ||||||||
| Jul 07 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 07/02 | 425K | 425K | 428K | ||||||||
| Jul 07 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 06/25 | 3700K | 3700K | 3702K | ||||||||
| Jul 07 | 11:00 | Crude Inventories | 07/02 | NA | NA | -4.375M | ||||||||
| Jul 08 | 08:30 | Nonfarm Payrolls | Jun | 75K | 80K | 54K | ||||||||
| Jul 08 | 08:30 | Nonfarm Private Payrolls | Jun | 95K | 110K | 83K | ||||||||
| Jul 08 | 08:30 | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | ||||||||
| Jul 08 | 08:30 | Average Workweek | Jun | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 | ||||||||
| Jul 08 | 08:30 | Hourly Earnings | Jun | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | ||||||||
| Jul 08 | 10:00 | Wholesale Inventories | May | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | ||||||||
| Jul 08 | 15:00 | Consumer Credit | May | $3.0B | $3.5B | $6.5B | ||||||||
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Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Some of these numbers are badly skewed due to Monday’s holiday when some markets were closed, others open
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Sept | P | 1223 | 1282 | 1324.75 | 1340.25 | 1361 | 1388 |
| Emini S+P | |||||||
| Emini Naz | P | 2133 | 2244 | 2358 | 2378 | 2413 | 2471 |
| Yen | N | 122.28 | 123.43 | 123.01 | 124.02 | 124.54 | 123.56 |
| EC | P | 139.06 | 141.92 | 142.49 | 144.97 | 144.39 | 148.06 |
| Sep 10 Year | N | 119.18 | 150.25 | 122.05 | 123.09 | 124.03 | 126.07 |
| Sep 30 Year | N | 119.07 | 120.30 | 122.24 | 123.29 | 125.20 | 128.19 |
| Sept Soybeans | N | 12.56 | 12.83 | 12.994 | 13.25 | 13.37 | 13.64 |
| Sept Corn | N | 5.41 | 5.74 | 6.165 | 6.317 | 6.68 | 7.29 |
| August Gold | N | 1456.7 | 1471.7 | 1493.2 | 1525 | 1507 | 1529 |
| Sept Silver | N | 32.23 | 33.12 | 32.24 | 36.13 | 34.95 | 35.90 |
| Sept Copper | P | 427 | 429 | 430 | 437 | 433 | 435 |
| Aug Crude | P | 94.35 | 94.67 | 94.99 | 98.13 | 95.39 | 95.79 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.