Free $25 Commodity Investor Kit

Includes : Charts, Market Information, Informative News Articles, Market Alerts, Exchange Brochures, Research, Managed Futures Information, and much more!!

CONTACT INFORMATION

You can contact us by sending mail below or you can call toll free:

Phone: 800.840.5617
Phone: 312.920.0212
Fax: 855.994.4111


ADDRESS

United Futures Trading Company, Inc.
9247 Broadway
Suite EE
Merrillville, IN 46410

Resource Pages | Friend Pages

The market is focused on Thursday's ADP private job forecast

07.06.11

Filed 8:15 pm

Last Last Week

Aug Crude 97.02 95.03

Aug Heat 297.79 293.16

Aug Gas (Blended) 301.20 293.90

Money flow in crude oil remains positive. The weekly supply and demand data from the International Energy Agency was delayed by a day due to the observance of July 4 on Monday. The market held together very well on Tuesday despite the news that China has indeed raised rates higher again by .25 basis points. Also the market remained well bid even as credit agencies downgraded Portuguese debt to junk. Higher rates and credit risks should have discouraged taking on risk yet the markets traded generally higher. A major bank lowered its expectation for the price of Brent crude to $90 based on the IEA again hitting The Strategic Petroleum Reserve and an increase in Saudi oil production. Another negative was the growing prospect of Qaddafi leaving Libya and for that country moving to revitalize oil shipments. In terms of price action crude oil is short-term overbought. The market will be focused on Thursdays ADP private jobs forecast as well as the jobs forecast by the US government on Friday. One negative was the news that gasoline demand was down 0.9% from last year due to higher prices. Another negative might also be if the ECB raises short-term rates on Thursday. Gasoline prices had been down seven weeks in a row at the pump until this week’s gain. In terms of gasoline supply and demand the trade is looking for an increase of 250,000 to 500,000 barrels. In terms of technical considerations the fact that prices are above the mid point Bollinger band are positive for the crude oil market. Gasoline is technically overbought. Of course, if the number for the ADP private job forecast is positive this will give market another leg up. Conversely, if the private jobs forecast is negative, this should be enough to induce short-term profit-taking in front of Friday’s unemployment number.

Support Resistance

Aug Crude 93.10 99.30

Aug Heat 285.50 304.00

Aug Gas 290.80 305.00

**********************************************************

METALS

Last Last Week

Aug Gold 1529.60 1511.60

Sept Silver 35.90 34.88

Oct Platinum 1729.20 1693.50

Gold traded very well on Tuesday despite the raise in short-term interest rates by China. Gold did attract some buyers due to the downgrade in Portuguese debt. Gold also has aligned itself recently with

the fortunes of the US stock market. Another potential negative for gold was a sharp selloff in the grain complex. At this point in time, gold prices seem to have decoupled from dollar trading. The continuing problems involved with raising the US debt limit to avoid a government shutdown is probably also another positive for gold market. The possibility of a European contagion revolving Portugal, Italy and Spain as well as Greece is probably another positive as well. Silver traded to its best level since June 23. In order for silver to maintain higher price levels, traders will have to see not only price but also volume and open interest increase. Better prices for copper helps to support platinum market.

Support Resistance

Aug Gold 1474.00 1537.50

Sept Silver 33.07 36.90

Oct Plat 1700.00 1766.00

******************************************

SOFTS

Last Last Week

Sept Coffee 267.50 260.70

Oct Sugar 27.68 26.92

The coffee market continues to be well bid. Prices are $.30 higher than last month lows. Coffee traded at it’s at its best level since last May. A severe drop in Vietnamese exports is a price positive. Colder than seasonal temperatures in key Brazilian growing areas remain above frost levels. Tight supplies of good coffee in North America and Europe remain a major price support.

Traders will be looking for a downward revision in Brazilian sugar output next week. This appears to be the new rationale behind the most recent drive to higher prices. Near-term tightness in global supplies is another positive factor. Short covering has also been a key element to

this market. Traders now believe that Brazilian production could be lower than last year for the first time in 10 years. Brazil is the world’s largest sugar exporter. The crop was severely stressed by weather last year and the recovery has been slow. The market remains in an overbought condition and commodity funds remain very long this market.

Support Resistance

Sept Coffee 264.50 275.0

Oct Sugar 26.50 28.50

********************************************

Last Last Week

Sept Soybeans 13.166 13.234

Sept Corn 6.186 6.78

Sept Wheat 6.27 6.742

Money flow in soybeans is positive. Yet another increase in short-term rates by China was a negative. The weather outlook remains negative. Good growing conditions in key areas of the Midwest should continue over the next 10 days. Lack of producer selling is a positive as is a lack of aggressive selling from commodity funds. Last week’s crop report showed that there was less than expected planted acreage and this was a positive for soybeans.

Money flow in corn remains negative. Higher than expected planted acreage last week significantly pressured prices lower. Cash market action remains positive however and export demand news was also positive. July corn has traded $.70 off of last week’s low, the result of the acreage report. Rumors of buying interest from China is a positive. The corn market’s short-term trend remains negative.

A generally stronger US dollar pressured we prices lower. Money flow in wheat remains negative. September wheat is $.49 higher than the lows seen last Friday due to the crop report and the release of acreage intentions. Commodity funds are net short the wheat market. Weather conditions are favorable for the crop. Talk of lower than expected yields from France was a price support.

Support Resistance

Sept Soybeans 13.00 13.34

Sept Corn 6.07 6.83

Sept Wheat 6.087 6.54

Chuck Kespert from NY/NY

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.