Top Day Recommendations
7.14.011
Welcome to Bastille Day. Overnight gold set yet another new high in nominal terms. Today’s a busy day in terms of economic releases with retail sales, continuing jobless claims, the producer price index and its core rate all having being unleashed upon the marketplace at 8:30. Retail sales come in better than expected at +0.1%. The PPI comes in at -0.4 with the core rate at +0.3. Jobless claims come at a better number of plus 405,000 down from a previous 427K but still the 14 straight week about 400,000.
Of course yesterday’s comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke were surprised in the sense that he put QE3 back on the table is a possibility if the economy continues to falter. This led to an immediate knee-jerk reaction of dollar weakness has of course the inflation of assets by the degradation of the currency would have that response by the market. The main focus of discussion immediately in yesterday’s aftermarket was Moody’s stating that they would downgrade US debt if the debt ceiling is not raised in the government goes into shutdown. The Swiss franc continues to trade at record levels against the EC and intervention does not seem likely. One side note: the tape action on copper looks sloppy. This becomes noteworthy in the sense of copper as a barometer for general economic strength or weakness and also as a thermometer gauging the temperature of China.
Week of July 11 - July 15
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Forecast | Briefing.com Consensus | Prior | Revised From | ||||||
| Jul 12 | 08:30 | Trade Balance | May | -$44.0B | -$44.0B | -$43.7B | ||||||||
| Jul 13 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 07/09 | NA | NA | -5.2% | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Forecast | Briefing.com Consensus | Prior | Revised From | |||||||||
| Jul 13 | 08:30 | Export Prices ex-ag. | Jun | NA | NA | 0.5% | |||||||||||
| Jul 13 | 08:30 | Import Prices ex-oil | Jun | NA | NA | 0.4% | |||||||||||
| Jul 13 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 07/09 | NA | NA | -0.889M | |||||||||||
| Jul 13 | 14:00 | Treasury Budget | Jun | -$45.0B | -$45.0B | -$68.4B | |||||||||||
| Jul 13 | 14:00 | FOMC Minutes | Jun 22 | ||||||||||||||
| Jul 14 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 07/09 | 425K | 418K | 418K | |||||||||||
| Jul 14 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 07/02 | 3700K | 3700K | 3681K | |||||||||||
| Jul 14 | 08:30 | Retail Sales | Jun | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | |||||||||||
| Jul 14 | 08:30 | Retail Sales ex-auto | Jun | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | |||||||||||
| Jul 14 | 08:30 | PPI | Jun | -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.2% | |||||||||||
| Jul 14 | 08:30 | Core PPI | Jun | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |||||||||||
| Jul 14 | 10:00 | Business Inventories | May | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | |||||||||||
| Jul 15 | 08:30 | CPI | Jun | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.2% | |||||||||||
| Jul 15 | 08:30 | Core CPI | Jun | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | |||||||||||
| Jul 15 | 08:30 | Empire Manufacturing | Jul | 0.0 | 1.0 | -7.8 | |||||||||||
| Jul 15 | 09:15 | Industrial Production | Jun | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |||||||||||
| Jul 15 | 09:15 | Capacity Utilization | Jun | 77.0% | 76.8% | 76.7% | |||||||||||
| Jul 15 | 09:55 | Mich Sentiment | Jul | 70.0 | 71.4 | 71.5 | |||||||||||
- Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Sept Emini S+P | N | 1313 | 1324 | 1303.75 | 1324.25 | 1355 | 1368 |
| Emini Naz | N | 2323 | 2366 | 2329 | 2367 | 2436 | 2464 |
| Yen | P | 121.74 | 122.91 | 125.98 | 127.08 | 124.18 | 125.45 |
| EC | N | 139.41 | 140.37 | 139.71 | 142.13 | 144.48 | 146.83 |
| Sep 10 Year | P | 121.08 | 122.15 | 124.11 | 125.02 | 124.13 | 125.05 |
| Sep 30 Year | P | 121.28 | 123.13 | 126.00 | 127.08 | 125.22 | 126.18 |
| Sept Soybeans | P | 12.88 | 13.16 | 13.57 | 13.87 | 13.60 | 13.76 |
| Sept Corn | PRD (U) | 6.02 | 6.22 | 6.67 | 7.00 | 6.54 | 6.66 |
| August Gold | P | 1465.80 | 1505.2 | 1571 | 1603 | 1565 | 1585 |
| Sept Silver | P | 32.69 | 34.68 | 36.65 | 39.82 | 37.78 | 39.98 |
| Sept Copper | P | 421 | 431 | 434 | 443 | 448 | 455 |
| Aug Crude | P | 91.66 | 94.68 | 95.65 | 99.33 | 99.15 | 101.82 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.