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Phone: 800.840.5617
Phone: 312.920.0212
Fax: 855.994.4111


ADDRESS

United Futures Trading Company, Inc.
9247 Broadway
Suite EE
Merrillville, IN 46410

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Gold sets another new high overnight

Top Day Recommendations

7.14.011

Welcome to Bastille Day. Overnight gold set yet another new high in nominal terms. Today’s a busy day in terms of economic releases with retail sales, continuing jobless claims, the producer price index and its core rate all having being unleashed upon the marketplace at 8:30. Retail sales come in better than expected at +0.1%. The PPI comes in at -0.4 with the core rate at +0.3. Jobless claims come at a better number of plus 405,000 down from a previous 427K but still the 14 straight week about 400,000.

Of course yesterday’s comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke were surprised in the sense that he put QE3 back on the table is a possibility if the economy continues to falter. This led to an immediate knee-jerk reaction of dollar weakness has of course the inflation of assets by the degradation of the currency would have that response by the market. The main focus of discussion immediately in yesterday’s aftermarket was Moody’s stating that they would downgrade US debt if the debt ceiling is not raised in the government goes into shutdown. The Swiss franc continues to trade at record levels against the EC and intervention does not seem likely. One side note: the tape action on copper looks sloppy. This becomes noteworthy in the sense of copper as a barometer for general economic strength or weakness and also as a thermometer gauging the temperature of China.

Week of July 11 - July 15

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Forecast Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 12 08:30 Trade Balance May -$44.0B -$44.0B -$43.7B
Jul 13 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 07/09 NA NA -5.2%
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Forecast Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 13 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jun NA NA 0.5%
Jul 13 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jun NA NA 0.4%
Jul 13 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/09 NA NA -0.889M
Jul 13 14:00 Treasury Budget Jun -$45.0B -$45.0B -$68.4B
Jul 13 14:00 FOMC Minutes Jun 22
Jul 14 08:30 Initial Claims 07/09 425K 418K 418K
Jul 14 08:30 Continuing Claims 07/02 3700K 3700K 3681K
Jul 14 08:30 Retail Sales Jun -0.3% -0.2% -0.2%
Jul 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jun -0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Jul 14 08:30 PPI Jun -0.2% -0.2% 0.2%
Jul 14 08:30 Core PPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Jul 14 10:00 Business Inventories May 0.9% 0.9% 0.8%
Jul 15 08:30 CPI Jun -0.1% -0.1% 0.2%
Jul 15 08:30 Core CPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Jul 15 08:30 Empire Manufacturing Jul 0.0 1.0 -7.8
Jul 15 09:15 Industrial Production Jun 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Jul 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jun 77.0% 76.8% 76.7%
Jul 15 09:55 Mich Sentiment Jul 70.0 71.4 71.5

- Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

P is Positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2

Sept Emini S+P N 1313 1324 1303.75 1324.25 1355 1368
Emini Naz N 2323 2366 2329 2367 2436 2464
Yen P 121.74 122.91 125.98 127.08 124.18 125.45
EC N 139.41 140.37 139.71 142.13 144.48 146.83
Sep 10 Year P 121.08 122.15 124.11 125.02 124.13 125.05
Sep 30 Year P 121.28 123.13 126.00 127.08 125.22 126.18
Sept Soybeans P 12.88 13.16 13.57 13.87 13.60 13.76
Sept Corn PRD (U) 6.02 6.22 6.67 7.00 6.54 6.66
August Gold P 1465.80 1505.2 1571 1603 1565 1585
Sept Silver P 32.69 34.68 36.65 39.82 37.78 39.98
Sept Copper P 421 431 434 443 448 455
Aug Crude P 91.66 94.68 95.65 99.33 99.15 101.82

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.