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The Fed Chairman paints a picture of low inflation and sluggish eco recovery.

07-17-2013

Top Day Market News

Housing starts and building permits at 8:30 followed by Crude inventories at 10:30 AM. The real key to the day will be the release of the Fed’s Beige Book and testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke.  The last release of the Beige book and the subsequent press conference sparked a serious rally.

 

The difference this time around is that Bernanke’s semi- annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony (probably his last) was just  released an hour before the market opens. This is a first and will catch some looking the wrong way.

 

The Fed Chairman paints a picture of low inflation and sluggish eco recovery. Doesn’t seem eager to taper. Policy seems dictated by 6.5% unemployment.

 

 

 

Week of July 15 - July 19

 

Date

 

ET

 

Release

 

For

 

Actual

Briefing.com Forecast

Briefing.com Consensus

 

Prior

Revised From

Jul 15

08:30

Retail Sales

Jun

 

0.9%

0.7%

0.6%

 

Jul 15

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

Jun

 

0.7%

0.4%

0.3%

 

Jul 15

08:30

Empire Manufacturing

Jul

 

3.0

3.6

7.8

 

Jul 15

10:00

Business Inventories

May

 

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.3%

 

Jul 16

08:30

CPI

Jun

 

0.3%

0.3%

0.1%

 

Jul 16

08:30

Core CPI

Jun

 

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

 

 Jul 16

 09:00

Net Long-Term TIC Flows

 May

 

 NA

 NA

-$37.3B

 

Jul 16

09:15

Industrial Production

Jun

 

0.5%

0.3%

0.0%

 

Jul 16

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Jun

 

77.9%

77.7%

77.6%

 

                   

 

 

 

Date

 

ET

 

Release

 

For

 

Actual

Briefing.com Forecast

Briefing.com Consensus

 

Prior

Revised From

 Jul 16

 10:00

NAHB Housing Market Index

 Jul

 

 49

 51

 52

 

Jul 17

07:00

MBA Mortgage Index

07/13

 

NA

NA

-4.0%

 

Jul 17

08:30

Housing Starts

Jun

 

925K

958K

914K

 

Jul 17

08:30

Building Permits

Jun

 

975K

1000K

974K

 

 Jul 17

 10:30

 Crude Inventories

 07/13

 

 NA

 NA

-9.874M

 

Jul 17

14:00

Fed's Beige Book

Jul

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Jul 18

08:30

Initial Claims

07/13

 

345K

348K

360K

 

Jul 18

08:30

Continuing Claims

07/06

 

2960K

2950K

2977K

 

Jul 18

10:00

Philadelphia Fed

Jul

 

3.0

5.3

12.5

 

Jul 18

10:00

Leading Indicators

Jun

 

0.2%

0.3%

0.1%

 

 Jul 18

 10:30

Natural Gas Inventories

 07/13

 

 NA

 NA

 82 bcf

 

 

MARKET PLACE

 

 

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

 

Legend U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on

Sunday night

Levels are for the most active futures contract

 

Daily Support and Resistance

 

 

Trend

WS2

WS1

DS

DR

WR1

WR2

Sept ES

U

1608

1639

1665

1678

1697

1705

Sept Nasdaq

U

2906

2985

3063

3079

3107

3149

Sept Yen

D

97.07

98.53

100.16

101.36

105.51

103.65

Sept EC

PRD(U)

125.13

128.05

130.80

132.12

132.05

134.67

Sept 10 Year

D

123.02

124.15

134.19

135.10

127.04

128.06

Sept 30 Year

PRD(U)

130.23

132.10

12.68

13.00

1335.0

136.21

Nov Soybeans

U

11.87

12.22

12.68

13.00

12.94

13.31

Sept Corn

U

5.06

5.25

5.39

5.55

5.64

5.93

Aug Gold

D

1182

1232

1279.1

1298.2

1315

1347

Sept Silver

U

18.01

18.63

19.71

20.10

20.51

21.47

 

Sept Copper

U

295

305

314

322

322

330

Aug Crude

U

99.95

103.17

104.76

106.90

108.42

110.59