Top Day Recommendations
7.18.12
Stocks are slightly lower before round two of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Yesterday, he didn’t exactly sound eager to unleash more stimulus. Perhaps more of the Fed’s disposition towards stimulus and the economy in general will be clarified by the release of the Beige Book (the minutes of the last Fed FOMOC meeting) and its release at 2 pm.
In other areas, the housing market is currently underpinned by low interest rates and an oversupply of houses. Finland and Germany sell two year notes with rates at less than zero and corn prices are beginning to trigger demand destruction.
|
Week of July 16 - July 20 |
||||||||
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Jul 16 |
08:30 |
Jun |
|
0.4% |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
|
Jul 16 |
08:30 |
Jun |
|
0.2% |
0.1% |
-0.4% |
|
|
|
Jul 16 |
08:30 |
Empire Manufacturing |
Jul |
|
0.0 |
3.8 |
2.3 |
|
|
Jul 16 |
10:00 |
May |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
Jul 17 |
08:30 |
Jun |
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
-0.3% |
|
|
|
Jul 17 |
08:30 |
Jun |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
Jul 17 |
09:00 |
Net Long-Term TIC Flows |
May |
|
NA |
NA |
$25.6B |
|
|
Jul 17 |
09:15 |
Jun |
|
0.0% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
Jul 17 |
09:15 |
Jun |
|
79.0% |
79.2% |
79.0% |
|
|
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Jul 17 |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
Jul |
|
30 |
30 |
29 |
|
|
Jul 18 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
07/14 |
|
NA |
NA |
-2.1% |
|
|
Jul 18 |
08:30 |
Jun |
|
715K |
743K |
708K |
|
|
|
Jul 18 |
08:30 |
Jun |
|
765K |
765K |
780K |
|
|
|
Jul 18 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
07/14 |
|
NA |
NA |
- 4.696M |
|
|
Jul 18 |
14:00 |
Fed's Beige Book |
Jun |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jul 19 |
08:30 |
07/14 |
|
360K |
365K |
350K |
|
|
|
Jul 19 |
08:30 |
07/07 |
|
3300K |
3300K |
3304K |
|
|
|
Jul 19 |
10:00 |
Jun |
|
4.65M |
4.65M |
4.55 |
|
|
|
Jul 19 |
10:00 |
Jul |
|
-13.0 |
-10.0 |
-16.6 |
|
|
|
Jul 19 |
10:00 |
Jun |
|
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
0.3% |
|
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on
Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on
Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Sept ES |
U |
1306 |
1329 |
1345 |
1366.25 |
1365.5 0 |
1380.00 |
|
Sept Nasdaq |
D |
2464 |
2520.50 |
2558.50 |
2604.50 |
2629.5 0 |
2682.00 |
|
Sept Yen |
U |
124.50 |
125.37 |
126.26 |
126.88 |
126.88 |
127.52 |
|
Sept EC |
U |
120.88 |
121.66 |
122.20 |
123.50 |
123.40 |
124.29 |
|
Sept 10 Year |
U |
134.00 |
134.08 |
134.12 |
135.00 |
134.27 |
135.06 |
|
Sept 30 Year |
U |
148.29 |
150.01 |
150.06 |
152.04 |
152.03 |
153.01 |
|
Nov Soybeans |
U |
14.74 |
15.13 |
15.59 |
16.06 |
15.83 |
16.14 |
|
Sept Corn |
U |
6.614 |
7.01 |
7.514 |
7.95 |
7.64 |
7.884 |
|
Aug Gold |
U |
1533.9 |
1543 |
1558.60 |
1601.80 |
1618.7 |
1664.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept Silver |
U |
25.93 |
26.06 |
26.33 |
27.70 |
27.76 |
28.24 |
|
Sept Copper |
D |
333 |
341 |
338 |
350 |
353 |
358 |
|
Aug Crude |
U |
82.15 |
84.61 |
87.93 |
89.98 |
88.57 |
90.07 |
|
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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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Charles Kespert***********************