Top Day Recommendations
7.19.11
Just housing starts and building permits today. Starts come in at +14.6% with permits at 624K. Both are better than expected. Crude was higher going into Wednesday’s expiration of August crude. The EC was better overnight as we approach yet another ECU meeting on July 21st. Some say credible solutions are ready to be proffered at this meeting to deal with the Euro zone debt contagion. Consequently, the market saw short covering. The housing data gave a boost to stock indices while IBM beat the Street in earnings.
Week of July 18 - July 22
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Forecast | Briefing.com Consensus | Prior | Revised From | |||||||||||||
| Jul 18 | 09:00 | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | May | NA | NA | $30.6B | |||||||||||||||
| Jul 18 | 10:00 | NAHB Housing Market Index | Jul | 14 | 14 | 13 | |||||||||||||||
| Jul 19 | 08:30 | Housing Starts | Jun | 570K | 570K | 560K | |||||||||||||||
| Jul 19 | 08:30 | Building Permits | Jun | 600K | 609K | 609K | 612K | ||||||||||||||
| Jul 20 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Purchase Index | 07/16 | NA | NA | -5.1% | |||||||||||||||
| Jul 20 | 10:00 | Existing Home Sales | Jun | 4.90M | 4.93M | 4.81M | |||||||||||||||
| Jul 20 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 07/16 | NA | NA | -3.124M | |||||||||||||||
| Jul 21 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 07/16 | 390K | 411K | 405K | |||||||||||||||
| Jul 21 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 07/9 | 3700K | 3700K | 3727K | |||||||||||||||
| Jul 21 | 10:00 | Philadelphia Fed | Jul | 0.0 | 0.0 | -7.70 | |||||||||||||||
| Jul 21 | 10:00 | Leading Indicators | Jun | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | |||||||||||||||
| Jul 21 | 10:00 | FHFA Housing Price Index | May | NA | NA | 0.8% | |||||||||||||||
Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2011/07/18-22/#ixzz1SDKegZlf
- Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
| Sept Emini S+P | N | 1272 | 1293 | 1289.50 | 1313 | 1337 | 1361 |
| Emini Naz | N | 2268 | 2395 | 2320 | 2374 | 2401 | 2447 |
| Yen | P | 122.21 | 124.37 | 126.34 | 126.91 | 128.09 | 129.65 |
| EC | N | 136.14 | 138.61 | 139.94 | 141.71 | 143.05 | 145.05 |
| Sep 10 Year | P | 122.27 | 123.27 | 124.15 | 125.05 | 125.19 | 126.12 |
| Sep 30 Year | P | 123.05 | 124.19 | 124.18 | 126.12 | 127.15 | 128.29 |
| Sept Soybeans | P | 13.08 | 13.45 | 13.69 | 14.01 | 14.07 | 14.31 |
| Sept Corn | P | 5.91 | 6.46 | 6.85 | 7.152 | 7.33 | 7.65 |
| August Gold | P | 1523 | 1558 | 1593.2 | 1609.7 | 1612 | 1630 |
| Sept Silver | P | 33.24 | 36.26 | 39.50 | 40.95 | 40.43 | 42.41 |
| Sept Copper | P | 426 | 434 | 437 | 448 | 446 | 451 |
| Sept
Crude |
P | 91.09 | 94.29 | 94.85 | 97.85 | 99.95 | 102.41 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.