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Between events in the Ukraine and in Gaza, volatility returned and complacency was put on high alert.

7.18.2014

Top Day Market News

Yesterday introduced the third element. The exogenous event that can break technical formations. Between events in the Ukraine and in Gaza, volatility returned and complacency was put on high alert. Crude shot higher on intense short covering and some fresh new buying while gold climbed the charts and stocks saw shots across the bow. In the immediate aftermath of early trading overnight, there was some semblance of stability but the balance or regaining of same probably will rely on how the US and Russia navigate the next few days. In retrospect, it’s difficult to believe commercial air wouldn’t completely avoid Ukrainian airspace but before recent events that airspace saw 400 flights a day by commercial carriers.

Today we get U of Michigan consumer sentiment and leading economic indicators.


 

Week

 

of July

 

14 - July 18

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com Forecast

Briefing.com Consensus

Prior

Revised From

Jul 15

08:30

Retail Sales

Jun

 

0.7%

0.7%

0.3%

 

Jul 15

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

Jun

 

0.6%

0.6%

0.1%

 

Jul 15

08:30

Empire Manufacturing

Jul

 

10.0

13.2

19.3

 

Jul 15

08:30

Export Prices ex-ag.

Jun

 

NA

NA

0.1%

 

Jul 15

08:30

Import Prices ex-oil

Jun

 

NA

NA

0.0%

 

Jul 15

10:00

Business Inventories

May

 

0.5%

0.6%

0.6%

 

Jul 16

07:00

MBA Mortgage Index

07/12

 

NA

NA

1.9%

 

Jul 16

08:30

PPI

Jun

 

0.2%

0.2%

-0.2%

 

Jul 16

08:30

Core PPI

Jun

 

0.2%

0.2%

-0.1%

 

Jul 16

09:00

Net Long-Term TIC Flows

May

 

NA

NA

-

$24.2B

 

Jul 16

09:15

Industrial Production

Jun

 

0.4%

0.4%

0.6%

 

Jul 16

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Jun

 

79.2%

79.2%

79.1%

 

Jul 16

10:00

NAHB Housing Market Index

Jul

 

50

50

49

 

 

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com Forecast

Briefing.com Consensus

Prior

Revised From

Jul 16

10:30

Crude Inventories

07/12

 

NA

NA

- 2.370M

 

Jul 16

14:00

Fed's Beige Book

Jul

 

 

 

 

 

Jul 17

08:30

Initial Claims

07/12

 

315K

311K

304K

 

Jul 17

08:30

Continuing Claims

07/05

 

2575K

2563K

2584K

 

Jul 17

08:30

Housing Starts

Jun

 

975K

1020K

1001K

 

Jul 17

08:30

Building Permits

Jun

 

1025K

1037K

991K

 

Jul 17

10:00

Philadelphia Fed

Jul

 

10.0

12.5

17.8

 

Jul 17

10:30

Natural Gas Inventories

07/12

 

NA

NA

93 bcf

 

Jul 18

09:55

Mich Sentiment

Jul

 

87.0

84.0

82.5

 

Jul 18

10:00

Leading Indicators

Jun

 

0.6%

0.5%

0.5%

 


Numbers below are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Support and Resistance Grid

 

 

Trend

WS2

WS1

DS

DR

WR1

WR2

Sept ES

U

1929.50

1946

1942

1970

1978

1994

Sept Nasdaq

U

3798

3846

3847

3715

3933

3966

Sept Yen

D

97.45

98.12

98.15

98.95

99.22

99.65

Sept EC

U

135.40

135.76

135.06

135.54

136.51

136.90

Sept 10 Year Note

D

123.16

124..1

124.31

125.22

125.75

126.11

Sept 30 Year Bond

U

133.28

135.21

137.12

138.25

138.15

139.16

Aug Soybeans

U

1084

11.40

11.54

11.93

12.70

13.45

Sept Corn

PRD(U)

10.84

11.40

3.73

3.86

12.70

13.45

Aug Gold

D

1298.20

1319

1301.30

1329.10

1353

1367

Sept Silver

PRD(U)

20.56

21.13

20.82

21.36

21.80

22.09

Sept Copper

D

320.50

323.90

319.20

323.00

330.

332.70

Aug Crude

PRD(U)

97.95

99.26

101.67

104.30

12.98

105.47