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End of the month and the volatility should ramp up starting with the ADP private jobs forecast.

07-31-2013

Top Day Market News

End of the month and the volatility should ramp up starting with the ADP private jobs forecast. This data point is a convenient way to recalibrate estimates of the unemployment figure Friday. Then we get an advance reading of GDP at 8:30. Chicago Purchasing Managers comes in just before the weekly oil supply numbers from the EIA, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy. Oil has now turned over and is pointed lower.

All of this will be eclipsed by the conclusion of the two day Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the rate decision at 2:00. This may turn out to be a non event as there isn’t a post release press conference scheduled this time. The last time, the Fed Chairman went on almost interminably which only made trading that much convoluted.

 

 

 

 

Date

 

ET

 

Release

 

For

Briefing.com Forecast

Briefing.com Consensus

 

Prior

Jul 29

10:00

Pending Home Sales

Jun

-1.0%

-1.7%

6.7%

 Jul 30

 09:00

Case-Shiller 20-city Index

 May

 10.0%

 10.5%

 12.1%

Jul 30

10:00

Consumer Confidence

Jul

83.5

81.6

81.4

Jul 31

07:00

MBA Mortgage Index

07/27

NA

NA

-1.2%

 Jul 31

 08:15

ADP Employment Change

 Jul

 175K

 175K

 188K

Jul 31

08:30

GDP-Adv.

Q2

-0.7%

1.1%

1.8%

Jul 31

08:30

Chain Deflator-Adv.

Q2

1.6%

1.2%

1.2%

 Jul 31

 08:30

Employment Cost Index

 Q2

 0.4%

 0.4%

 0.3%

               

 

 

 

Date

 

ET

 

Release

 

For

Briefing.com Forecast

Briefing.com Consensus

 

Prior

Jul 31

09:45

Chicago PMI

Jul

51.5

51.5

51.6

 Jul 31

 10:30

 Crude Inventories

 07/27

 NA

 NA

-2.825M

Jul 31

14:00

FOMC Rate Decision

Jul

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

Aug 01

 07:30

 Challenger Job Cuts

 Jul

 NA

 NA

 4.8%

Aug 01

 08:30

 Initial Claims

 07/27

 345K

 345K

 343K

Aug 01

 08:30

 Continuing Claims

 07/20

 2995K

 2995K

 2997K

Aug 01

 10:00

 ISM Index

 Jul

 51.5

 51.5

 50.9

Aug 01

 10:00

Construction Spending

 Jun

 -0.3%

 0.2%

 0.5%

Aug 01

 10:30

Natural Gas Inventories

 07/27

 NA

 NA

 41 bcf

Aug 01

 14:00

 Auto Sales

 Jul

 NA

 NA

 5.7M

Aug 01

 14:00

 Truck Sales

 Jul

 NA

 NA

 6.8M

Aug 02

 08:30

 Nonfarm Payrolls

 Jul

 175K

 175K

 195K

Aug 02

 08:30

Nonfarm Private Payrolls

 Jul

 190K

 195K

 202K

Aug 02

 08:30

 Unemployment Rate

 Jul

 7.6%

 7.5%

 7.6%

Aug 02

 08:30

 Hourly Earnings

 Jul

 0.2%

 0.2%

 0.4%

Aug 02

 08:30

 Average Workweek

 Jul

 34.5

 34.5

 34.5

Aug 02

 08:30

 Personal Income

 Jun

 0.6%

 0.5%

 0.5%

Aug 02

 08:30

 Personal Spending

 Jun

 0.4%

 0.4%

 0.3%

Aug 02

 08:30

 PCE Prices - Core

 Jun

 0.2%

 0.2%

 0.1%

Aug 02

 10:00

 Factory Orders

 Jun

 2.3%

 2.2%

 2.1%

 

MARKET PLACE

 

 

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night

Levels are for the most active futures contract

 

Daily Support and Resistance

 

 

Trend

WS2

WS1

DS

DR

WR1

WR2

Sept ES

U

1659

1673

1678

1694

1698

1709

 

Sept Nasdaq

U

3006

3040

3069

3098

3090

3106

Sept Yen

U

98.41

100.13

101.68

102.42

102.84

103.83

Sept EC

U

130.70

131.70

132.23.

133.02

133.30

133.90

Sept 10 Year

D

125.15

126.02

126.05

126.19

127.09

127.29

Sept 30 Year

D

132.08

133.15

133.08

134.11

135.31

137.08

Nov Soybeans

D

11.55

11.91

11.84

12.18

12.80

13.32

Sept Corn

D

4.55

4.73

4.90

4.985

5.27

5.63

Aug Gold

D

1272

1303

1317

1336

1356

1379

Sept Silver

D

18.91

19.42

19.49

20.06

20.52

21.11

Sept Copper

U

305

310

301

308

319

324

Sept Crude

D

100.86

102.72

102.32

104.19

107.42

110.30