07-31-2013
Top Day Market News
End of the month and the volatility should ramp up starting with the ADP private jobs forecast. This data point is a convenient way to recalibrate estimates of the unemployment figure Friday. Then we get an advance reading of GDP at 8:30. Chicago Purchasing Managers comes in just before the weekly oil supply numbers from the EIA, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy. Oil has now turned over and is pointed lower.
All of this will be eclipsed by the conclusion of the two day Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the rate decision at 2:00. This may turn out to be a non event as there isn’t a post release press conference scheduled this time. The last time, the Fed Chairman went on almost interminably which only made trading that much convoluted.
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Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
|
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Jul 29 |
10:00 |
Pending Home Sales |
Jun |
-1.0% |
-1.7% |
6.7% |
|
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Jul 30 |
09:00 |
Case-Shiller 20-city Index |
May |
10.0% |
10.5% |
12.1% |
|
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Jul 30 |
10:00 |
Consumer Confidence |
Jul |
83.5 |
81.6 |
81.4 |
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Jul 31 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
07/27 |
NA |
NA |
-1.2% |
|
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Jul 31 |
08:15 |
ADP Employment Change |
Jul |
175K |
175K |
188K |
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Jul 31 |
08:30 |
GDP-Adv. |
Q2 |
-0.7% |
1.1% |
1.8% |
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Jul 31 |
08:30 |
Chain Deflator-Adv. |
Q2 |
1.6% |
1.2% |
1.2% |
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Jul 31 |
08:30 |
Employment Cost Index |
Q2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
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Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
|
Jul 31 |
09:45 |
Chicago PMI |
Jul |
51.5 |
51.5 |
51.6 |
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Jul 31 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
07/27 |
NA |
NA |
-2.825M |
|
Jul 31 |
14:00 |
FOMC Rate Decision |
Jul |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
Aug 01 |
07:30 |
Challenger Job Cuts |
Jul |
NA |
NA |
4.8% |
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Aug 01 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
07/27 |
345K |
345K |
343K |
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Aug 01 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
07/20 |
2995K |
2995K |
2997K |
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Aug 01 |
10:00 |
ISM Index |
Jul |
51.5 |
51.5 |
50.9 |
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Aug 01 |
10:00 |
Construction Spending |
Jun |
-0.3% |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
Aug 01 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
07/27 |
NA |
NA |
41 bcf |
|
Aug 01 |
14:00 |
Auto Sales |
Jul |
NA |
NA |
5.7M |
|
Aug 01 |
14:00 |
Truck Sales |
Jul |
NA |
NA |
6.8M |
|
Aug 02 |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
Jul |
175K |
175K |
195K |
|
Aug 02 |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Private Payrolls |
Jul |
190K |
195K |
202K |
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Aug 02 |
08:30 |
Unemployment Rate |
Jul |
7.6% |
7.5% |
7.6% |
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Aug 02 |
08:30 |
Hourly Earnings |
Jul |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
Aug 02 |
08:30 |
Average Workweek |
Jul |
34.5 |
34.5 |
34.5 |
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Aug 02 |
08:30 |
Personal Income |
Jun |
0.6% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
Aug 02 |
08:30 |
Personal Spending |
Jun |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
|
Aug 02 |
08:30 |
PCE Prices - Core |
Jun |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
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Aug 02 |
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
Jun |
2.3% |
2.2% |
2.1% |
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
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Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
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Sept ES |
U |
1659 |
1673 |
1678 |
1694 |
1698 |
1709 |
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Sept Nasdaq |
U |
3006 |
3040 |
3069 |
3098 |
3090 |
3106 |
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Sept Yen |
U |
98.41 |
100.13 |
101.68 |
102.42 |
102.84 |
103.83 |
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Sept EC |
U |
130.70 |
131.70 |
132.23. |
133.02 |
133.30 |
133.90 |
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Sept 10 Year |
D |
125.15 |
126.02 |
126.05 |
126.19 |
127.09 |
127.29 |
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Sept 30 Year |
D |
132.08 |
133.15 |
133.08 |
134.11 |
135.31 |
137.08 |
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Nov Soybeans |
D |
11.55 |
11.91 |
11.84 |
12.18 |
12.80 |
13.32 |
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Sept Corn |
D |
4.55 |
4.73 |
4.90 |
4.985 |
5.27 |
5.63 |
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Aug Gold |
D |
1272 |
1303 |
1317 |
1336 |
1356 |
1379 |
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Sept Silver |
D |
18.91 |
19.42 |
19.49 |
20.06 |
20.52 |
21.11 |
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Sept Copper |
U |
305 |
310 |
301 |
308 |
319 |
324 |
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Sept Crude |
D |
100.86 |
102.72 |
102.32 |
104.19 |
107.42 |
110.30 |
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