08-01-0213
Top Day Market News
The Federal Open Market Committee Meeting came and went (thankfully without a press conference afterwards) and the Fed gave the intention of keeping rates artificially low even after the cessation of QE. To taper is not to tighten. The market had somewhat of a mixed response in the turbulent wake as the Bond market (allegedly the most intelligent market out there) declined on a better than expected reading for advance Q2, then trimmed that response upon seeing a substantial downward revision to Q1, then finally a rally on the realization that the Fed will continue purchasing 85 billion dollars a month in treasury bonds due to the continuing downside risks to the economy.
The big number today would be the Institute for Supply Management index out at 10. This is just a run up to the always potentially flammable unemployment number on Friday.
Overnight, the dollar was initially strong in a counter move to Wednesday while crude maintained its gains from a draw in stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma the hub for the benchmark West Texas Intermediate which in turn encouraged spreading against Brent crude.
I rolled the support resistance numbers out to December gold as the August chart is already showing discontinuous holes which recalls the observation that a fishnet is a collection of holes held in place by string.
|
|
|
||||||
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
|
|
Jul 29 |
10:00 |
Pending Home Sales |
Jun |
-1.0% |
-1.7% |
6.7% |
|
|
Jul 30 |
09:00 |
Case-Shiller 20-city Index |
May |
10.0% |
10.5% |
12.1% |
|
|
Jul 30 |
10:00 |
Consumer Confidence |
Jul |
83.5 |
81.6 |
81.4 |
|
|
Jul 31 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
07/27 |
NA |
NA |
-1.2% |
|
|
Jul 31 |
08:15 |
ADP Employment Change |
Jul |
175K |
175K |
188K |
|
|
Jul 31 |
08:30 |
GDP-Adv. |
Q2 |
-0.7% |
1.1% |
1.8% |
|
|
Jul 31 |
08:30 |
Chain Deflator-Adv. |
Q2 |
1.6% |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
|
Jul 31 |
08:30 |
Employment Cost Index |
Q2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
|
|
Jul 31 |
09:45 |
Chicago PMI |
Jul |
51.5 |
51.5 |
51.6 |
|
|
Jul 31 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
07/27 |
NA |
NA |
-2.825M |
|
|
Jul 31 |
14:00 |
FOMC Rate Decision |
Jul |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
|
Aug 01 |
07:30 |
Challenger Job Cuts |
Jul |
NA |
NA |
4.8% |
|
|
Aug 01 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
07/27 |
345K |
345K |
343K |
|
|
Aug 01 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
07/20 |
2995K |
2995K |
2997K |
|
|
Aug 01 |
10:00 |
ISM Index |
Jul |
51.5 |
51.5 |
50.9 |
|
|
Aug 01 |
10:00 |
Construction Spending |
Jun |
-0.3% |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
|
Aug 01 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
07/27 |
NA |
NA |
41 bcf |
|
|
Aug 01 |
14:00 |
Auto Sales |
Jul |
NA |
NA |
5.7M |
|
|
Aug 01 |
14:00 |
Truck Sales |
Jul |
NA |
NA |
6.8M |
|
|
Aug 02 |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
Jul |
175K |
175K |
195K |
|
|
Aug 02 |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Private Payrolls |
Jul |
190K |
195K |
202K |
|
|
Aug 02 |
08:30 |
Unemployment Rate |
Jul |
7.6% |
7.5% |
7.6% |
|
|
Aug 02 |
08:30 |
Hourly Earnings |
Jul |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
|
Aug 02 |
08:30 |
Average Workweek |
Jul |
34.5 |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
Aug 02 |
08:30 |
Personal Income |
Jun |
0.6% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
Aug 02 |
08:30 |
Personal Spending |
Jun |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
|
Aug 02 |
08:30 |
PCE Prices - Core |
Jun |
0.2 |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
Aug 02 |
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
Jun |
2.3% |
2.2% |
2.1% |
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Sept ES |
U |
1659 |
1673 |
1675 |
1698 |
1698 |
1709 |
|
Sept Nasdaq |
U |
3006 |
3040 |
3073 |
3114 |
3090 |
3106 |
|
Sept Yen |
U |
98.41 |
100.13 |
101.03 |
102.73 |
102.84 |
103.83 |
|
Sept EC |
U |
130.70 |
131.70 |
131.60 |
133.87 |
133.30 |
133.90 |
|
Sept 10 Year |
D |
125.15 |
126.02 |
125.24 |
126.27 |
127.09 |
127.29 |
|
Sept 30 Year |
D |
132.08 |
133.15 |
132.27 |
134.27 |
135.31 |
137.08 |
|
Nov Soybeans |
D |
11.55 |
11.91 |
11.96 |
12.13 |
12.80 |
13.32 |
|
Sept Corn |
PRD(U) |
4.55 |
4.73 |
4.94 |
5.01 |
5.27 |
5.63 |
|
Dec Gold |
D |
1272 |
1303 |
12.99 |
13.33 |
1356 |
1379 |
|
Sept Silver |
D |
18.91 |
19.42 |
19.28 |
20.00 |
20.52 |
21.11 |
