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BOE and ECB leave interest rates unchanged

                         Top Day Recommendations

8.04.11  

Last night, Japan unilaterally intervened in the currency market. As of 8 AM the yen is down 472 pips. Their timing was impeccable. The wind was at their back as the Swiss had intervened just 20 hours earlier, the US stock market was coming off of a multi-week low and the risk trade (yen off) was back on, at least for the moment. Of course both the yen and the Swiss have been suffering from strong currencies which were killing their exports.

  

Sorry about the chart yesterday; didn’t format particularly well. Mea culpa.

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Street is looking for 85,000 in new jobs on Friday. Still abysmal. Politicians haven’t exactly covered themselves with glory lately. The brinksmanship displayed leading up to the

 

“just round midnight” increase of the debt limit has completely destroyed the wealth effect of QE1 and QE2. Now QE3 or Rainbow1 or Bridge to Nowhere2 or whatever the Fed ends up calling it, seems more inevitable than ever. As for the currencies, the race to zero is still on track despite the interventions seen over the past 36 hours.

 

 

BOE and ECB leave interest rates unchanged.

 

 

 

 

Week of August 01 - August 05

 

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com  Briefing.com

Prior

Revised

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast

Consensus

 

From

 

Aug

10:00

 ISM Index

Jul

 

51.0

54.0

55.3

 

 

01

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

10:00

Construction

Jun

 

0.2%

0.0%

-0.6%

 

 

01

Spending

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

 Personal Income

Jun

 

0.0%

0.1%

0.3%

 

 

02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

 Personal Spending

Jun

 

-0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

 

 

02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

 PCE Prices - Core

Jun

 

0.3%

0.2%

0.3%

 

 

02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

15:00

 Auto Sales

Aug

 

NA

4.1M

3.86M

 

 

02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

15:00

 Truck Sales

Aug

 

NA

5.2M

4.98M

 

 

02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

07:00

MBA Mortgage Index

07/30

 

NA

NA

-5%

 

 

03

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

07:30

Challenger Job Cuts

Jul

 

NA

NA

5.2%

 

 

03

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:15

ADP Employment

Jul

 

100K

95K

157K

 

 

03

Change

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

10:00

 Factory Orders

Jun

 

-1.0%

-1.0%

0.8%

 

 

03

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

10:00

 ISM Services

Jul

 

52.0

53.1

53.3

 

 

03

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

10:30

Crude Inventories

07/30

 

NA

NA

2.296M

 

 

03

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

 Initial Claims

07/30

 

420K

405K

398K

 

 

04

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com  Briefing.com

Prior

Revised

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast

Consensus

 

From

 

Aug

08:30

 Continuing Claims

07/23

 

3700K

3700K

3703K

 

 

04

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

 Nonfarm Payrolls

Jul

 

50K

78K

18K

 

 

05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

 Nonfarm Private

Jul

 

75K

100K

57K

 

 

05

Payrolls

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

 Unemployment Rate

Jul

 

9.3%

9.1%

9.2%

 

 

05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

 Hourly Earnings

Jul

 

0.1%

0.2%

0.0%

 

 

05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

 Average Workweek

Jul

 

34.3

34.3

34.3

 

 

05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

15:00

 Consumer Credit

Jun

 

$5.0B

$5.0B

$5.076B

 

 

05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

 

Legend

P is Positive 

N is Negative 

PRD is Potential Reversal Day 

S2 is strong support 

S1 is good support 

DS is Daily Support 

DR is Daily Resistance 

R1 is Good Resistance 

R2 is Strong Resistance

 

Levels are for the most active futures contract

  

Daily Support and Resistance

 

Trend            S2                S1                DS                DR                 R1

R2

  

Sept

N

1240.50

1264.5

1237.25

1264

1326.25

1364.25

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

Emini

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

S+P

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Emini

N

2280

2319

2265

2327

2417

2475

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Naz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yen

P

125.54

127.60

128.84

128.84

131.19

132.56

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EC

P

140.56

142.02

141.75

143.76

145.04

146.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 10

P

123.13

124.10

126.23

127.11

126.15

127.09

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 30

P

123.08

125.22

130.13

132.06

129.18

131.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sept

N

131.67

133.25

13.45

13.72

137.50

140.17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Soybea

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ns

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sept

P

6.42

6.54

6.92

7.13

6.84

7.05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec

P

1591.3

1610.1

1655

1687

1642

1656

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sept

P

38.05

38.97

40.86

4235

41.13

42.38

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sept

N

432

440

427

438

453

458

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Copper

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sept

N

91.47

93.66

89.76

93.36

99.33

102.80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crude

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

 

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

 

 

********************************************

 

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

 

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

  

Charles Kespert

 

***********************

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

 

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.