Top Day Recommendations
8.04.11
Last night, Japan unilaterally intervened in the currency market. As of 8 AM the yen is down 472 pips. Their timing was impeccable. The wind was at their back as the Swiss had intervened just 20 hours earlier, the US stock market was coming off of a multi-week low and the risk trade (yen off) was back on, at least for the moment. Of course both the yen and the Swiss have been suffering from strong currencies which were killing their exports.
Sorry about the chart yesterday; didn’t format particularly well. Mea culpa.
The Street is looking for 85,000 in new jobs on Friday. Still abysmal. Politicians haven’t exactly covered themselves with glory lately. The brinksmanship displayed leading up to the
“just round midnight” increase of the debt limit has completely destroyed the wealth effect of QE1 and QE2. Now QE3 or Rainbow1 or Bridge to Nowhere2 or whatever the Fed ends up calling it, seems more inevitable than ever. As for the currencies, the race to zero is still on track despite the interventions seen over the past 36 hours.
BOE and ECB leave interest rates unchanged.
Week of August 01 - August 05
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Briefing.com |
Prior |
Revised |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forecast |
Consensus |
|
From |
|
|
Aug |
10:00 |
Jul |
|
51.0 |
54.0 |
55.3 |
|
|
|
|
01 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
10:00 |
Construction |
Jun |
|
0.2% |
0.0% |
-0.6% |
|
|
|
01 |
Spending |
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Jun |
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
02 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Jun |
|
-0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
02 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Jun |
|
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
02 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
15:00 |
Aug |
|
NA |
4.1M |
3.86M |
|
|
|
|
02 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
15:00 |
Aug |
|
NA |
5.2M |
4.98M |
|
|
|
|
02 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
07/30 |
|
NA |
NA |
-5% |
|
|
|
03 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
07:30 |
Challenger Job Cuts |
Jul |
|
NA |
NA |
5.2% |
|
|
|
03 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
08:15 |
ADP Employment |
Jul |
|
100K |
95K |
157K |
|
|
|
03 |
Change |
|
|
|
|||||
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Aug |
10:00 |
Jun |
|
-1.0% |
-1.0% |
0.8% |
|
|
|
|
03 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
10:00 |
Jul |
|
52.0 |
53.1 |
53.3 |
|
|
|
|
03 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
07/30 |
|
NA |
NA |
2.296M |
|
|
|
03 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
07/30 |
|
420K |
405K |
398K |
|
|
|
|
04 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Briefing.com |
Prior |
Revised |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forecast |
Consensus |
|
From |
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
07/23 |
|
3700K |
3700K |
3703K |
|
|
|
|
04 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Jul |
|
50K |
78K |
18K |
|
|
|
|
05 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Jul |
|
75K |
100K |
57K |
|
|
|
|
05 |
Payrolls |
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Jul |
|
9.3% |
9.1% |
9.2% |
|
|
|
|
05 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Jul |
|
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
05 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Jul |
|
34.3 |
34.3 |
34.3 |
|
|
|
|
05 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
15:00 |
Jun |
|
$5.0B |
$5.0B |
$5.076B |
|
|
|
|
05 |
|
|
|
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|
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|
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1
R2
|
Sept |
N |
1240.50 |
1264.5 |
1237.25 |
1264 |
1326.25 |
1364.25 |
|
|
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Emini |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
S+P |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Emini |
N |
2280 |
2319 |
2265 |
2327 |
2417 |
2475 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Naz |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yen |
P |
125.54 |
127.60 |
128.84 |
128.84 |
131.19 |
132.56 |
|
|
|
|
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||
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EC |
P |
140.56 |
142.02 |
141.75 |
143.76 |
145.04 |
146.60 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Sep 10 |
P |
123.13 |
124.10 |
126.23 |
127.11 |
126.15 |
127.09 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Year |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sep 30 |
P |
123.08 |
125.22 |
130.13 |
132.06 |
129.18 |
131.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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||
|
Year |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
N |
131.67 |
133.25 |
13.45 |
13.72 |
137.50 |
140.17 |
|
|
|
|
|
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||
|
Soybea |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ns |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
P |
6.42 |
6.54 |
6.92 |
7.13 |
6.84 |
7.05 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Corn |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec |
P |
1591.3 |
1610.1 |
1655 |
1687 |
1642 |
1656 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Gold |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
P |
38.05 |
38.97 |
40.86 |
4235 |
41.13 |
42.38 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Silver |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
N |
432 |
440 |
427 |
438 |
453 |
458 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Copper |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
N |
91.47 |
93.66 |
89.76 |
93.36 |
99.33 |
102.80 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Crude |
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.