Top Day Recommendations
8.05.11
Now that the wealth effect of QE1 and QE2 have been eradicated by markets focusing on the systemic problems of the euro zone and investors voicing displeasure over the handling of the budget impasse by Congress (82% of those polled) we now are faced with the unemployment report. Consensus calls for an increase of 85,000 jobs. There doesn’t seem to be enough growth in the economy to create more than 85,000 jobs but we’ll see. More than 14 billion shares were traded on Thursday the heaviest selling in more than a year. Perhaps that’s enough to be called climactic. Certainly the breakdown of the 1241 level in the S&P was enough to generate more selling pressure. Overnight, things seem fairly stable, the calm before the storm, perhaps. As investors stare into the gaping maw of a potential recession the question must be asked, are we entering into one? If we are, current conditions would be unique. The US banking system isn’t broken, corporate profits are good and they are sitting on piles of cash, they just aren’t employing anybody. Added to that, interest rates are effectively at a very stimulative rate of zero. Problems in Europe remain very real however. They have a single currency but not a single bond market, a serious structural problem.
Week of August 01 - August 05
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Aug 01 |
10:00 |
Jul |
51.0 |
54.0 |
55.3 |
|||
|
Aug 01 |
10:00 |
Jun |
0.2% |
0.0% |
-0.6% |
|||
|
Aug 02 |
08:30 |
Jun |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|||
|
Aug 02 |
08:30 |
Jun |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|||
|
Aug 02 |
08:30 |
Jun |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|||
|
Aug 02 |
15:00 |
Aug |
NA |
4.1M |
3.86M |
|||
|
Aug 02 |
15:00 |
Aug |
NA |
5.2M |
4.98M |
|||
|
Aug 03 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
07/30 |
NA |
NA |
-5% |
||
|
Aug 03 |
07:30 |
Challenger Job Cuts |
Jul |
NA |
NA |
5.2% |
||
|
Aug 03 |
08:15 |
ADP Employment Change |
Jul |
100K |
95K |
157K |
||
|
Aug 03 |
10:00 |
Jun |
-1.0% |
-1.0% |
0.8% |
|||
|
Aug 03 |
10:00 |
Jul |
52.0 |
53.1 |
53.3 |
|||
|
Aug 03 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
07/30 |
NA |
NA |
2.296M |
||
|
Aug 04 |
08:30 |
07/30 |
420K |
405K |
398K |
|||
|
Aug 04 |
08:30 |
07/23 |
3700K |
3700K |
3703K |
|||
|
Aug 05 |
08:30 |
Jul |
50K |
78K |
18K |
|||
|
Aug 05 |
08:30 |
Jul |
75K |
100K |
57K |
|||
|
Aug 05 |
08:30 |
Jul |
9.3% |
9.1% |
9.2% |
|||
|
Aug 05 |
08:30 |
Jul |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|||
|
Aug 05 |
08:30 |
Jul |
34.3 |
34.3 |
34.3 |
|||
|
Aug 05 |
15:00 |
Jun |
$5.0B |
$5.0B |
$5.076B |
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
|
Sept Emini S+P |
N |
1240.50 |
1264.50 |
1173.25 |
1244.25 |
1326.25 |
1364.25 |
|
Emini Naz |
N |
2280 |
2319 |
2163 |
2287 |
2417 |
2475 |
|
Yen |
P |
125.54 |
127.60 |
124.18 |
129.42 |
131.19 |
132.56 |
|
EC |
P |
140.56 |
142.02 |
140.09 |
142.94 |
145.04 |
146.60 |
|
Sep 10 Year |
P |
123.13 |
124.10 |
126.30 |
128.22 |
126.15 |
127.09 |
|
Sep 30 Year |
P |
123.08 |
125.22 |
131.09 |
134.31 |
129.18 |
131.00 |
|
Sept Soybeans |
N |
131.67 |
133.25 |
13.11 |
13.55 |
137.50 |
140.17 |
|
Sept Corn |
PRD (d) |
6.42 |
6.54 |
6.69 |
7.05 |
6.84 |
7.05 |
|
Dec Gold |
P |
1591.3 |
1610.1 |
1639 |
1681 |
1642 |
1656 |
|
Sept Silver |
P |
38.05 |
38.97 |
37.85 |
41.66 |
41.13 |
42.38 |
|
Sept Copper |
N |
432 |
440 |
410 |
433 |
453 |
458 |
|
Sept Crude |
N |
91.47 |
93.66 |
8180 |
9067 |
99.33 |
102.80 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
******************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.