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Phone: 800.840.5617
Phone: 312.920.0212
Fax: 855.994.4111


ADDRESS

United Futures Trading Company, Inc.
9247 Broadway
Suite EE
Merrillville, IN 46410

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Congress faced with unemployment report

Top Day Recommendations

 8.05.11

 Now that the wealth effect of QE1 and QE2 have been eradicated by markets focusing on the systemic problems of the euro zone and investors voicing displeasure over the handling of the budget impasse by Congress (82% of those polled) we now are faced with the unemployment report. Consensus calls for an increase of 85,000 jobs. There doesn’t seem to be enough growth in the economy to create more than 85,000 jobs but we’ll see. More than 14 billion shares were traded on Thursday the heaviest selling in more than a year. Perhaps that’s enough to be called climactic. Certainly the breakdown of the 1241 level in the S&P was enough to generate more selling pressure. Overnight, things seem fairly stable, the calm before the storm, perhaps. As investors stare into the gaping maw of a potential recession the question must be asked, are we entering into one? If we are, current conditions would be unique. The US banking system isn’t broken, corporate profits are good and they are sitting on piles of cash, they just aren’t employing anybody. Added to that, interest rates are effectively at a very stimulative rate of zero. Problems in Europe remain very real however. They have a single currency but not a single bond market, a serious structural problem.

 

Week of August 01 - August 05
 

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com Forecast

Briefing.com Consensus

Prior

Revised From

Aug 01

10:00

ISM Index

Jul

 

51.0

54.0

55.3

 

Aug 01

10:00

Construction Spending

Jun

 

0.2%

0.0%

-0.6%

 

Aug 02

08:30

Personal Income

Jun

 

0.0%

0.1%

0.3%

 

Aug 02

08:30

Personal Spending

Jun

 

-0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

 

Aug 02

08:30

PCE Prices - Core

Jun

 

0.3%

0.2%

0.3%

 

Aug 02

15:00

Auto Sales

Aug

 

NA

4.1M

3.86M

 

Aug 02

15:00

Truck Sales

Aug

 

NA

5.2M

4.98M

 

Aug 03

07:00

MBA Mortgage Index

07/30

 

NA

NA

-5%

 

Aug 03

07:30

Challenger Job Cuts

Jul

 

NA

NA

5.2%

 

Aug 03

08:15

ADP Employment Change

Jul

 

100K

95K

157K

 

Aug 03

10:00

Factory Orders

Jun

 

-1.0%

-1.0%

0.8%

 

Aug 03

10:00

ISM Services

Jul

 

52.0

53.1

53.3

 

Aug 03

10:30

Crude Inventories

07/30

 

NA

NA

2.296M

 

Aug 04

08:30

Initial Claims

07/30

 

420K

405K

398K

 

Aug 04

08:30

Continuing Claims

07/23

 

3700K

3700K

3703K

 

Aug 05

08:30

Nonfarm Payrolls

Jul

 

50K

78K

18K

 

Aug 05

08:30

Nonfarm Private Payrolls

Jul

 

75K

100K

57K

 

Aug 05

08:30

Unemployment Rate

Jul

 

9.3%

9.1%

9.2%

 

Aug 05

08:30

Hourly Earnings

Jul

 

0.1%

0.2%

0.0%

 

Aug 05

08:30

Average Workweek

Jul

 

34.3

34.3

34.3

 

Aug 05

15:00

Consumer Credit

Jun

 

$5.0B

$5.0B

$5.076B

 


 

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

P is Positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

 

Levels are for the most active futures contract

                       Daily Support and Resistance

             Trend            S2                S1                DS                DR                 R1                 R2

 

Sept Emini S+P

N

1240.50

1264.50

1173.25

1244.25

1326.25

1364.25

Emini Naz

N

2280

2319

2163

2287

2417

2475

Yen

P

125.54

127.60

124.18

129.42

131.19

132.56

EC

P

140.56

142.02

140.09

142.94

145.04

146.60

Sep 10 Year

P

123.13

124.10

126.30

128.22

126.15

127.09

Sep 30 Year

P

123.08

125.22

131.09

134.31

129.18

131.00

Sept Soybeans

N

131.67

133.25

13.11

13.55

137.50

140.17

Sept Corn

PRD (d)

6.42

6.54

6.69

7.05

6.84

7.05

Dec Gold

P

1591.3

1610.1

1639

1681

1642

1656

Sept Silver

P

38.05

38.97

37.85

41.66

41.13

42.38

Sept Copper

N

432

440

410

433

453

458

Sept

Crude

N

91.47

93.66

8180

9067

99.33

102.80

 

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.  Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.  Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

 

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 Charles Kespert

******************

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

 

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.