Top Day Recommendations
8.09.11
Sad to say, the seven broadcast trucks circling the New York Stock Exchange are still there this morning. Markets rebound overnight in front of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting and rate decision this afternoon at 2. Of course, the hope is that the Fed will come to the rescue of these damaged markets with an assuring outlook or perhaps an operation or two. Hope and delusion both spring eternal. Gold made a new nominal high last night at 1782.50. The reason the word “nominal” is used is that gold’s high in 1980 at $850.00 translates to $2,400 an ounce in today’s devalued currency. ECB continues to buy peripheral debt. Growth is weak. Recession is unlikely.
Be very light in terms of exposure at 2:15 pm. The disappointment could be severe.
Week of August 08 - August 12
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Briefing.com |
Prior |
Revised |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forecast |
Consensus |
|
From |
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Q2 |
|
-0.6% |
-0.6% |
1.8% |
|
|
|
|
09 |
|
|
|
||||||
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Q2 |
|
2.0% |
2.2% |
0.7% |
|
|
|
|
09 |
|
|
|
||||||
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|
|
|
Aug |
14:15 |
FOMC Rate Decision |
Aug |
|
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
|
|
09 |
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
Aug |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
08/06 |
|
NA |
NA |
+7.1% |
|
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
10:00 |
Wholesale |
Jun |
|
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.8% |
|
|
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Briefing.com |
Prior |
Revised |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forecast |
Consensus |
|
From |
|
|
10 |
|
Inventories |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
08/06 |
|
NA |
NA |
0.950M |
|
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
14:00 |
Jul |
|
NA |
NA |
- |
|
|
|
|
10 |
|
$165.0B |
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Aug |
08:30 |
08/06 |
|
410K |
409K |
400K |
|
|
|
|
11 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
7/30 |
|
3700K |
3700K |
4730K |
|
|
|
|
11 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Jun |
|
-$48.0B |
-$48.0B |
-$50.2B |
|
|
|
|
11 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Jul |
|
1.0% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
12 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Jul |
|
0.7% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
12 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
09:55 |
Aug |
|
62.0 |
62.5 |
63.7 |
|
|
|
|
12 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
10:00 |
Jun |
|
0.5% |
0.5% |
1.0% |
|
|
|
|
12 |
|
|
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Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2011/08/08-12/#ixzz1URFvDRdj |
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Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1
R2
|
Sept |
N |
1077 |
11374 |
1084 |
1163 |
1283 |
1370 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Emini |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
S+P |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Emini |
N |
1970 |
2078 |
1989 |
2128 |
2345 |
2503 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Naz |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yen |
P |
121.32 |
124.43 |
127.87 |
130.21 |
130.89 |
134.24 |
|
|
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||
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|
EC |
P |
138.40 |
140.48 |
140.68 |
143.41. |
144.45 |
146.40 |
|
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|
Sep 10 |
P |
123.18 |
125.10 |
127.13 |
129.09 |
128.24 |
130.14 |
|
|
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|
|
|
|
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||
|
Year |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sep 30 |
P |
123.21 |
127.30 |
132.19 |
136.24 |
135.26 |
139.13 |
|
|
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||
|
Year |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
N |
12.77 |
13.09 |
12.88 |
13.17 |
13.64 |
14.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Soybea |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ns |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
P |
6.41 |
6.67 |
6.58 |
6.87 |
7.16 |
7.39 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Corn |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec |
P |
1576.2 |
1621.0 |
1688 |
1747 |
1705 |
1729 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Gold |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
P |
34.65 |
36.49 |
37.28 |
40.41 |
41.23 |
44.13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Silver |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
N |
378 |
395 |
388 |
408 |
441 |
470 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Copper |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
N |
73.84 |
83.59 |
76.85 |
84.63 |
96.28 |
105.30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Crude |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
**********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.