Top Day Recommendations
8.10.11
Glad to say that even though the structural problems facing both the US and the Euro Zone remain, the seven broadcast trucks circling the New York Stock Exchange (like vultures in the barren trees) have left. The markets first fell then rebounded after the Fed said that the cost of money would be just north of nothing for the next several years. There were several unbelievable swings yesterday, notably the Swiss Franc which was approximately 900 higher on the day at one point. Overnight, the Swiss increased their money supply which should make central banks still on the buy side happy.
Just wholesale inventories today and crude stats at 10:30. Last week supply surprised to the upside. The recent fall in the price of crude is equivalent to a tax cut. Still haven’t seen movement at the pumps however in terms of price; not exactly surprising.
Huge reversal yesterday. That should be it going forward.
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Briefing.com |
Prior |
Revised |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forecast |
Consensus |
|
From |
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Q2 |
|
-0.6% |
-0.6% |
1.8% |
|
|
|
|
09 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Q2 |
|
2.0% |
2.2% |
0.7% |
|
|
|
|
09 |
|
|
|
||||||
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|
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|
|
|
Aug |
14:15 |
FOMC Rate Decision |
Aug |
|
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
|
|
09 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
Aug |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
08/06 |
|
NA |
NA |
+7.1% |
|
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
||||||
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|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
Aug |
10:00 |
Wholesale |
Jun |
|
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.8% |
|
|
|
10 |
Inventories |
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|
|
|||||
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|
|
|
|
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||
|
Aug |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
08/06 |
|
NA |
NA |
0.950M |
|
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
14:00 |
Jul |
|
NA |
NA |
- |
|
|
|
|
10 |
|
$165.0B |
|
|
|||||
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
||
|
Aug |
08:30 |
08/06 |
|
410K |
409K |
400K |
|
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|
|
11 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
7/30 |
|
3700K |
3700K |
4730K |
|
|
|
|
11 |
|
|
|
||||||
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|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Jun |
|
-$48.0B |
-$48.0B |
-$50.2B |
|
|
|
|
11 |
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Jul |
|
1.0% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
12 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Jul |
|
0.7% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Briefing.com |
Prior |
Revised |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forecast |
Consensus |
|
From |
|
|
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
09:55 |
Aug |
|
62.0 |
62.5 |
63.7 |
|
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|
|
12 |
|
|
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||||||
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
10:00 |
Jun |
|
0.5% |
0.5% |
1.0% |
|
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|
|
12 |
|
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Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2011/08/08-12/#ixzz1URFvDRdj
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1
R2
|
Sept |
N |
1077 |
11374 |
1107 |
1205 |
1283 |
1370 |
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Emini |
|
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|
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|
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S+P |
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Emini |
N |
1970 |
2078 |
2031 |
2220 |
2345 |
2503 |
|
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||
|
Naz |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Yen |
P |
121.32 |
124.43 |
128.72 |
131.52 |
130.89 |
134.24 |
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EC |
P |
138.40 |
140.48 |
141.12 |
144.69 |
144.45 |
146.40 |
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|
Sep 10 |
P |
123.18 |
125.10 |
128.03 |
131.09 |
128.24 |
130.14 |
|
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|
Year |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sep 30 |
P |
123.21 |
127.30 |
134.07 |
140.00 |
135.26 |
139.13 |
|
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|
Year |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
N |
12.77 |
13.09 |
12.74 |
13.33 |
13.64 |
14.00 |
|
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|
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Soybea |
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
ns |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
P |
6.41 |
6.67 |
6.61 |
6.91 |
7.16 |
7.39 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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||
|
Corn |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec |
P |
1576.2 |
1621.0 |
1712 |
1777 |
1705 |
1729 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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||
|
Gold |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
P |
34.65 |
36.49 |
36.72 |
39.35 |
41.23 |
44.13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
Silver |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
N |
378 |
395 |
390 |
406 |
441 |
470 |
|
|
|
|
|
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||
|
Copper |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
N |
73.84 |
83.59 |
75.65 |
86.60 |
96.28 |
105.30 |
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Crude |
|
|
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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
******************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.