Top Day Recommendations
8.11.11
The main feature of yesterday was the thrashing of European bank stocks, partially Soc Gen. Down 20% in one session. Impressive by any standard of measurement. Yesterday, the Fed Chairman and the President met behind closed doors. Now that would have been an interesting conversation to monitor. Overnight, more glimmers of hope followed by more shudders of fear. It’s like being in the ocean, the bottom is muddy and you just can’t trust it. The market is hanging on the next headline and today will feature weekly jobless claims. Above or below 400K.
Margin requirement on gold goes up 22% today. Not enough to shake the trees. Not even close to the punishing margin increase in silver to 21K previously. That was a game changer. ECB says rates will remain low.
The way to trade high vol is to reduce your size and tighten your stops. Assume nothing. Since the vol is so high you can easily become a day trader rather than a swing trader.
Markets move through their ranges in the turn of an hour, not days.
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Briefing.com |
Prior |
Revised |
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|
|
Forecast |
Consensus |
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From |
|
|
Aug |
08:30 |
Q2 |
|
-0.6% |
-0.6% |
1.8% |
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|
09 |
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Aug |
08:30 |
Q2 |
|
2.0% |
2.2% |
0.7% |
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|
|
09 |
|
|
|
||||||
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Aug |
14:15 |
FOMC Rate Decision |
Aug |
|
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
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|
09 |
|
|
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Aug |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
08/06 |
|
NA |
NA |
+7.1% |
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|
10 |
|
|
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||||||
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Aug |
10:00 |
Wholesale |
Jun |
|
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.8% |
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|
10 |
Inventories |
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|
|||||
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|
Aug |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
08/06 |
|
NA |
NA |
0.950M |
|
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
||||||
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Aug |
14:00 |
Jul |
|
NA |
NA |
- |
|
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|
10 |
|
$165.0B |
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|||||
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|
Aug |
08:30 |
08/06 |
|
410K |
409K |
400K |
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11 |
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Aug |
08:30 |
7/30 |
|
3700K |
3700K |
4730K |
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|
11 |
|
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Aug |
08:30 |
Jun |
|
-$48.0B |
-$48.0B |
-$50.2B |
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|
11 |
|
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Aug |
08:30 |
Jul |
|
1.0% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
|
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|
|
12 |
|
|
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||||||
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|
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Aug |
08:30 |
Jul |
|
0.7% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
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|
12 |
|
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||||||
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Aug |
09:55 |
Aug |
|
62.0 |
62.5 |
63.7 |
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|
12 |
|
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Aug |
10:00 |
Jun |
|
0.5% |
0.5% |
1.0% |
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|
12 |
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Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2011/08/08-12/#ixzz1URFvDRdj |
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Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1
R2
|
Sept |
N |
1077 |
11374 |
1075 |
1163 |
1283 |
1370 |
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Emini |
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S+P |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
Emini |
N |
1970 |
2078 |
2044 |
2169 |
2345 |
2503 |
|
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||
|
Naz |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yen |
P |
121.32 |
124.43 |
129.48 |
131.12 |
130.89 |
134.24 |
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EC |
P |
138.40 |
140.48 |
140.99 |
143.40 |
144.45 |
146.40 |
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Sep 10 |
P |
123.18 |
125.10 |
129.05 |
130.23 |
128.24 |
130.14 |
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Year |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sep 30 |
P |
123.21 |
127.30 |
136.01 |
139.25 |
135.26 |
139.13 |
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Year |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Nov |
N |
12.77 |
13.09 |
12.905 |
13.29 |
13.64 |
14.00 |
|
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Soybea |
|
|
|
|
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ns |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dect |
P |
6.41 |
6.67 |
6.83 |
6.96 |
7.16 |
7.39 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Corn |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec |
P |
1576.2 |
1621.0 |
1749.50 |
1835 |
1705 |
1729 |
|
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|
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|
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Gold |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
P |
34.65 |
36.49 |
38.10 |
40.06 |
41.23 |
44.13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Silver |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
N |
378 |
395 |
381 |
414 |
441 |
470 |
|
|
|
|
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|
Copper |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept |
N |
73.84 |
83.59 |
80.56 |
85.46 |
96.28 |
105.30 |
|
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Crude |
|
|
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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
******************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.