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You can contact us by sending mail below or you can call toll free:

Phone: 800.840.5617
Phone: 312.920.0212
Fax: 855.994.4111


ADDRESS

United Futures Trading Company, Inc.
9247 Broadway
Suite EE
Merrillville, IN 46410

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Stock market is discounting mechanism

Top Day Recommendations

8.19.11

 

Thankfully, today is an open date in terms of economic releases. Overnight, more stress with stocks lower universally. Gold surged higher but the line is so steep that one should fully expect margin increases. Stocks are well off their lows and oil has rebounded from good support at $80 basis October. Going forward, remember that the stock market is a discounting mechanism so expect to view August as a month of great opportunity from the vantage of December.

S+P chart continues to unfold classically.

 

On vacation next week. Throwing myself in the North Atlantic. With the Euro Zone crisis, the urge to try and swim to Portugal this year may be diminished.

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com  Briefing.com

Prior

Revised

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast

Consensus

 

From

 

Aug

08:30

Empire Manufacturing

Aug

-7.70

0.0

-0.4

-3.76

 

 

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

09:00

Net Long-Term TIC

Jun

 

NA

NA

$23.6B

 

 

15

Flows

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

10:00

NAHB Housing

Aug

 

15

15

15

 

 

15

Market Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

 Housing Starts

Jul

 

575K

608K

629K

 

 

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

 Building Permits

Jul

 

600K

606K

624K

 

 

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

 Export Prices ex-ag.

Jul

 

NA

NA

0.0%

 

 

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

 Import Prices ex-oil

Jul

 

NA

NA

-0.1%

 

 

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

09:15

 Industrial Production

Jul

 

0.1%

0.4%

0.2%

 

 

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

09:15

 Capacity Utilization

Jul

 

76.6%

77.0%

76.7%

 

 

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

07:00

MBA Mortgage Index

08/13

 

NA

NA

+21.7%

 

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

PPI

Jul

 

0.1%

0.0%

-0.4%

 

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

 Core PPI

Jul

 

0.2%

0.2%

0.4%

 

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

10:30

Crude Inventories

08/13

 

NA

NA

-

 

 

17

 

5.225M

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

 Initial Claims

08/13

 

400K

400K

395K

 

 

18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

 Continuing Claims

08/6

 

3700K

3698K

3688K

 

 

18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

CPI

Jul

 

0.2%

0.2%

-0.2%

 

 

18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

08:30

 Core CPI

Jul

 

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

 

 

18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

10:00

 Existing Home Sales

Jul

 

4.70M

4.87M

4.77M

 

 

18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

10:00

 Philadelphia Fed

Aug

 

0.0

1.0

3.20

 

 

18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug

10:00

 Leading Indicators

Jul

 

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

 

 

18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

 

Legend

P is Positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance 

R2 is Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

 

 

 

Daily Support and Resistance

 

 

 

Trend

S2

S1

DS

DR

 

R1

 

R2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sept

N

1035

1106

1119.15

1179.50

1218

 

1259

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Emini

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

S+P

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Emini

N

1898

2035

2031.50

2154

2255

2334

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Naz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yen

P

125.90

128.09

130.47

131.13

131.87

133.46

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EC

P

139.46

140.92

142.40

144.23

143.89

145.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 10

P

125.07

127.17

130.04

131.17

131.19

133.11

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 30

P

127.17

132.08

137.29

141.09

140.24

144.17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nov

N

12.50

12.92

13.47

13.71

13.65

13.96

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Soybea

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ns

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec

P

6.49

6.81

7.06

7.22

7.34

7.53

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec

P

1613.5

1681

1813

1858

1817

1885

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sept

P

35.45

37.26

40.19

41.44

40.63

42.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sept

N

367

384

391.50

403

414

428

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Copper

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oct

N

71.13

78.21

79.95

86.30

89.87

94.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crude

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

 

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

 

 

 

********************************************

 

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

 

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

 

**********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

 

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.