Top Day Recommendations
9.07.11
Biggest story overnight was the turning back of a constitutional challenge to the German participation in ECB bailouts. This popped the EC momentarily and took equities with it, also momentarily. Also, risk adverse investments (read gold) flashed lower on this as well. The biggest story was the Swiss National Bank really pushing back against an export pricing squeeze for its industries (watches, chocolate, textiles, ceramics) by establishing a minimum exchange rate. On this, the Swiss Franc was down over 10 handles.
Beige book at 2pm, the look into the mind of the Fed, will make for interesting reading.
Oil stats delayed until tomorrow due to Monday’s holiday.
President’s speech on job creation tomorrow. (He could encourage favorable tax treatment for multi nationals repatriating profits if those profits were directed towards R+D and job creation but don’t bank on it).
Week of September 05 - September 09
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Briefing.com |
Prior |
Revised |
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Forecast |
Consensus |
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From |
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Sep |
10:00 |
Aug |
|
52.0 |
51.0 |
52.7 |
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06 |
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Sep |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
09/03 |
|
NA |
NA |
-9.6% |
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07 |
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Sep |
14:00 |
Fed's Beige Book |
Sep |
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07 |
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Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Briefing.com |
Prior |
Revised |
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Forecast |
Consensus |
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From |
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Sep |
08:30 |
09/03 |
|
400K |
400K |
409K |
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08 |
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Sep |
08:30 |
08/27 |
|
3700K |
3700K |
3735K |
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08 |
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Sep |
08:30 |
Jul |
|
-$51.0B |
-$51.5B |
- |
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08 |
|
$53.1B |
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Sep |
11:00 |
Crude Inventories |
09/03 |
|
NA |
NA |
5.281M |
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08 |
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Sep |
15:00 |
Jul |
|
$5.0B |
$5.0B |
$15.5B |
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08 |
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Sep |
10:00 |
Wholesale |
Jul |
|
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.6% |
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09 |
Inventories |
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Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR
R1 R2
|
Sept Emini |
N |
1127 |
1148 |
1144.7 |
1186.50 |
1209 |
1250 |
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5 |
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S+P |
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Emini Naz |
P |
2084 |
2124 |
2125 |
2221 |
2223 |
2309 |
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|
Yen |
P |
128.77 |
125.94 |
128.17 |
129.94 |
130.98 |
131.65 |
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EC |
N |
139.32 |
140.50 |
138.78 |
141.80 |
143.31 |
146.78 |
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Dec 10 |
N |
127.25 |
129.02 |
129.21 |
130.15 |
131.01 |
131.23 |
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Year |
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Dec 30 |
P |
133.07 |
136.25 |
139.13 |
141.23 |
142.05 |
143.31 |
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Year |
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Nov |
P |
13.98 |
14.22 |
14.09 |
14.35 |
14.67 |
14.88 |
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Soybeans |
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Dec Corn |
P |
7.17 |
7.38 |
7.46 |
7.68 |
7.80 |
8.003 |
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Dec Gold |
P |
1741 |
1814 |
1825 |
1910 |
1923 |
1960 |
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Dec Silver |
N |
39.22 |
41.26 |
40.45 |
42.30 |
44.41 |
45.53 |
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Dec |
N |
399 |
405 |
407 |
411 |
420 |
428 |
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Copper |
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Oct |
PRD |
82.43 |
84.54 |
85.28 |
87.35 |
89.33 |
92.01 |
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Crude |
(D) |
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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
******************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.