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OECD projects that Germany will enter a recession in the second half
Market News
Top Day Market News

9.07.12

Here we go. The unemployment report has finally arrived. The question is clear; the ADP private jobs forecast came in at a better than expected 201K while the Street had been looking for 140K.  The Street is looking for 125K in today’s report. This number should be beaten and beaten soundly based on the ADP showing strength in all sectors, but then again…

Overnight, Intel downgrades based on forward guidance and this briefly spiked the Nasdaq to the downside. The OECD which represents 34 of the most developed nations projects that Germany will enter a recession in the second half while Britain will emerge from one and the US is showing better strength. As far as the ECB bond buying proposal which helped propel the US market to 4 year highs, the program is called an Outright Monetary Transaction. ECB will buy bonds for 1 to 3 year maturities. Borrowers must meet certain conditions (read austerities). The IMF will help determine these conditions. To avoid inflation, for each euro spent by the ECB to buy bonds, they will withdraw a like amount from the system by taking deposits or selling notes. Of course, the ability for Germany to participate in this is still being adjudicated but this will probably be resolved next week. Beyond that, the German fear is what happens if and when a borrower defaults. Vol will increase.

 

Week of September 03 - September 07

 

Date

 

ET

 

Release

 

For

 

Actual

Briefing.com

Forecast

Briefing.com

Consensus

 

Prior

Revised

From

Sep

04

 

10:00

 

ISM Index

 

Aug

 

 

49.0

 

50.0

 

49.8

 

Sep

04

 

10:00

Construction

Spending

 

Jul

 

 

0.5%

 

0.5%

 

0.4%

 

Sep

04

 

14:00

 

Auto Sales

 

Aug

 

 

NA

 

NA

 

5.0M

 

Sep

04

 

14:00

 

Truck Sales

 

Aug

 

 

NA

 

NA

 

6.0M

 

Sep

05

 

07:00

 

MBA Mortgage Index

 

09/01

 

 

NA

 

NA

 

-4.3%

 

Sep

05

 

08:30

 

Productivity-Rev.

 

Q2

 

 

1.8%

 

1.8%

 

1.6%

 

Sep

05

 

08:30

Unit Labor Costs - Rev

 

Q2

 

 

1.4%

 

1.4%

 

1.7%

 

Sep

06

 

07:30

 

Challenger Job Cuts

 

Aug

 

 

NA

 

NA

 

-44.5%

 

Sep

06

 

08:15

ADP Employment

Change

 

Aug

 

 

150K

 

140K

 

163K

 

Sep

06

 

08:30

 

Initial Claims

 

09/01

 

 

375K

 

375K

 

374K

 

Sep

06

 

08:30

 

Continuing Claims

 

08/25

 

 

3300K

 

3300K

 

3316K

 

Sep

06

 

10:00

 

ISM Services

 

Aug

 

 

51.0

 

52.2

 

52.6

 

Sep

06

 

11:00

 

Crude Inventories

 

09/01

 

 

NA

 

NA

 

3.778M

 

Sep

07

 

08:30

 

Nonfarm Payrolls

 

Aug

 

 

140K

 

130K

 

163K

 

Sep

07

 

08:30

Nonfarm Private

Payrolls

 

Aug

 

 

155K

 

145K

 

172K

 

Sep

07

 

08:30

 

Unemployment Rate

 

Aug

 

 

8.2%

 

8.3%

 

8.3%

 

Sep

07

 

08:30

 

Hourly Earnings

 

Aug

 

 

0.2%

 

0.2%

 

0.1%

 

Sep

07

 

08:30

 

Average Workweek

 

Aug

 

 

34.5

 

34.5

 

34.5

 

 

 

MARKET PLACE

 

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

 

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on

Sunday night

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on

Sunday night

Levels are for the most active futures contract

 

Daily Support and Resistance

 

 

Trend

WS2

WS1

DS

DR

WR1

WR2

Sept ES

D

1384.50

1394.50

1412

1451

1415.5

0

1425.25

Sept Nasdaq

D

2702

2745

2785

2870

2796.0

0

2821.00

Sept Yen


U

126.39

127.03

125.91

127.42

128.12

128.57

Sept EC


U

123.90

124.86

125.88

127.13

126.59

127.36

DEC Sept 10 Year


D

132.06

132.30

148.03

150.14

134.18

135.00

Dec 30 Year


D

147.29

149.21

132.05

133.06

152.14

153.15

Nov Soybeans


D

16.72

17.14

17.13

17.58

17.84

18.13

Dec Corn


D

7.78

7.89

7.90

8.10

8.14

8.28

DEC Gold


U

1630.00

1661.3

1682.2

1717.0

1709.7

1726.8

Dec Silver


U

29.74

30.76

31.85

33.06

32.26

32.84

Dec Copper


U

335

340

349

356

351

356

Oct Crude


D

92.30

94.43

92.82

97.29

98.20

98.84

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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