9.07.12
Here we go. The unemployment report has finally arrived. The question is clear; the ADP private jobs forecast came in at a better than expected 201K while the Street had been looking for 140K. The Street is looking for 125K in today’s report. This number should be beaten and beaten soundly based on the ADP showing strength in all sectors, but then again…
Overnight, Intel downgrades based on forward guidance and this briefly spiked the Nasdaq to the downside. The OECD which represents 34 of the most developed nations projects that Germany will enter a recession in the second half while Britain will emerge from one and the US is showing better strength. As far as the ECB bond buying proposal which helped propel the US market to 4 year highs, the program is called an Outright Monetary Transaction. ECB will buy bonds for 1 to 3 year maturities. Borrowers must meet certain conditions (read austerities). The IMF will help determine these conditions. To avoid inflation, for each euro spent by the ECB to buy bonds, they will withdraw a like amount from the system by taking deposits or selling notes. Of course, the ability for Germany to participate in this is still being adjudicated but this will probably be resolved next week. Beyond that, the German fear is what happens if and when a borrower defaults. Vol will increase.
|
Week of September 03 - September 07 |
||||||||
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Sep 04 |
10:00 |
|
Aug |
|
49.0 |
50.0 |
49.8 |
|
|
Sep 04 |
10:00 |
Jul |
|
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
Sep 04 |
14:00 |
|
Aug |
|
NA |
NA |
5.0M |
|
|
Sep 04 |
14:00 |
|
Aug |
|
NA |
NA |
6.0M |
|
|
Sep 05 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
09/01 |
|
NA |
NA |
-4.3% |
|
|
Sep 05 |
08:30 |
|
Q2 |
|
1.8% |
1.8% |
1.6% |
|
|
Sep 05 |
08:30 |
Q2 |
|
1.4% |
1.4% |
1.7% |
|
|
|
Sep 06 |
07:30 |
Challenger Job Cuts |
Aug |
|
NA |
NA |
-44.5% |
|
|
Sep 06 |
08:15 |
ADP Employment Change |
Aug |
|
150K |
140K |
163K |
|
|
Sep 06 |
08:30 |
|
09/01 |
|
375K |
375K |
374K |
|
|
Sep 06 |
08:30 |
|
08/25 |
|
3300K |
3300K |
3316K |
|
|
Sep 06 |
10:00 |
|
Aug |
|
51.0 |
52.2 |
52.6 |
|
|
Sep 06 |
11:00 |
Crude Inventories |
09/01 |
|
NA |
NA |
3.778M |
|
|
Sep 07 |
08:30 |
|
Aug |
|
140K |
130K |
163K |
|
|
Sep 07 |
08:30 |
Aug |
|
155K |
145K |
172K |
|
|
|
Sep 07 |
08:30 |
|
Aug |
|
8.2% |
8.3% |
8.3% |
|
|
Sep 07 |
08:30 |
|
Aug |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
Sep 07 |
08:30 |
|
Aug |
|
34.5 |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on
Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on
Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Sept ES |
D |
1384.50 |
1394.50 |
1412 |
1451 |
1415.5 0 |
1425.25 |
|
Sept Nasdaq |
D |
2702 |
2745 |
2785 |
2870 |
2796.0 0 |
2821.00 |
|
Sept Yen |
U |
126.39 |
127.03 |
125.91 |
127.42 |
128.12 |
128.57 |
|
Sept EC |
U |
123.90 |
124.86 |
125.88 |
127.13 |
126.59 |
127.36 |
|
DEC Sept 10 Year |
D |
132.06 |
132.30 |
148.03 |
150.14 |
134.18 |
135.00 |
|
Dec 30 Year |
D |
147.29 |
149.21 |
132.05 |
133.06 |
152.14 |
153.15 |
|
Nov Soybeans |
D |
16.72 |
17.14 |
17.13 |
17.58 |
17.84 |
18.13 |
|
Dec Corn |
D |
7.78 |
7.89 |
7.90 |
8.10 |
8.14 |
8.28 |
|
DEC Gold |
U |
1630.00 |
1661.3 |
1682.2 |
1717.0 |
1709.7 |
1726.8 |
|
Dec Silver |
U |
29.74 |
30.76 |
31.85 |
33.06 |
32.26 |
32.84 |
|
Dec Copper |
U |
335 |
340 |
349 |
356 |
351 |
356 |
|
Oct Crude |
D |
92.30 |
94.43 |
92.82 |
97.29 |
98.20 |
98.84 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
