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German bond falls to record low

Top Day Recommendations

9.08.11

 

Sorry for the delay. Yes, it’s still raining. Yes, it’s still flooding. I’m looking for directions to the arc. Overnight, the 10 year German bond falls to a record low of 1.823% while debt spreads against the peripherals widen. Trichet says growth may contract. Inflation is not as much of a risk but must be strictly monitored. ECB cuts growth forecasts. Weekly jobless claims come in higher than expected at 414K. ECB leaves benchmark unchanged at 1.5%. BOE leaves policy unchanged.

 

Of course, the main focus will be on the President’s speech. As mentioned yesterday, he will not mention repatriation of multinational profits to finance domestic R+D and job creation and this will probably disappoint the Street.

 

 

Week of September 05 - September 09

 

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com  Briefing.com

Prior

Revised

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast

Consensus

 

From

 

Sep

10:00

 ISM Services

Aug

 

52.0

51.0

52.7

 

 

06

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

07:00

MBA Mortgage Index

09/03

 

NA

NA

-9.6%

 

 

07

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

14:00

Fed's Beige Book

Sep

 

 

 

 

 

 

07

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

08:30

 Initial Claims

09/03

 

400K

400K

409K

 

 

08

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

08:30

 Continuing Claims

08/27

 

3700K

3700K

3735K

 

 

08

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

08:30

 Trade Balance

Jul

 

-$51.0B

-$51.5B

-

 

 

08

 

$53.1B

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

11:00

Crude Inventories

09/03

 

NA

NA

5.281M

 

 

08

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

15:00

 Consumer Credit

Jul

 

$5.0B

$5.0B

$15.5B

 

 

08

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com  Briefing.com

Prior

Revised

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast

Consensus

 

From

 

Sep

10:00

Wholesale

Jul

 

0.7%

0.7%

0.6%

 

 

09

Inventories

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

 

Legend

 

P is Positive

 

N is Negative

 

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

 

S2 is strong support

 

S1 is good support

 

DS is Daily Support

 

DR is Daily Resistance

 

R1 is Good Resistance

 

R2 is Strong Resistance

 

Levels are for the most active futures contract

 

 

Daily Support and Resistance

 

Trend                                        S2                S1                DS                DR

R1                 R2

Sept Emini

N

1127

1148

1175.2

1211.25

1209

1250

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

S+P

 

 

 

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Emini Naz

P

2084

2124

2183

2242

2223

2309

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yen

P

128.77

125.94

128.74

129.85

130.98

131.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EC

N

139.32

140.50

139.18

141.61

143.31

146.78

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec 10

N

127.25

129.02

129.22

130.16

131.01

131.23

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec 30

P

133.07

136.25

138.30

140.12

142.05

143.31

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nov

PRD

13.98

14.22

14.03

14.32

14.67

14.88

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Soybeans

(D)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec Corn

P

7.17

7.38

7.39

7.60

7.80

8.003

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec Gold

PRD

1741

1814

1869

1779

1923

1960

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(D)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec Silver

N

39.22

41.26

40.50

42.52

44.41

45.53

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec

N

399

405

402.50

416

420

428

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Copper

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oct

P

82.43

84.54

86.90

91.16

89.33

92.01

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crude

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

 

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

 

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

 

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not foreveryone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 Charles Kespert

******************

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

 

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.