Top Day Recommendations
9.15.11
Today is a really busy day in terms of economic releases. First we have initial and continuing jobless claims. Initial claims have remained steadfastly above 400,000 for an annoyingly long time. At the exact same time we have the release of the consumer price index and the core CPI. Inflationary pressures seem to be minimal to say the most, at least in the United States. If that’s not enough data all at one second we also have the release of the Empire State Manufacturing index which saw contraction last month. After digesting this we have the 9:15 release of industrial production capacity utilization. Then there’s the highly dissected release of the Philadelphia Fed index at 10 o’clock. Last month’s release of the Philly Fed sparked debate about a severe recession. Last month the reading was -30.7. That sounded like a depression. The expectation is for -15.
Assurances yesterday from Markozy lifted stock markets and put selling pressure on gold. The precious metal continues to be offered this morning as central banks are raising cash.
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Briefing.com |
Prior |
Revised |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
Forecast |
Consensus |
|
From |
|
|
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sep |
08:30 |
Aug |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
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|
14 |
|
|
|
||||||
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|
|
|
Sep |
08:30 |
Aug |
|
-0.5% |
0.2% |
0.5% |
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|
|
14 |
|
|
|
||||||
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|
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|
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|
|
|
Sep |
08:30 |
Aug |
|
-0.2% |
0.3% |
0.5% |
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|
|
14 |
|
|
|
||||||
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|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
Sep |
10:00 |
Jul |
|
0.4% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
|
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|
|
14 |
|
|
|
||||||
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|
Sep |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
09/10 |
|
NA |
NA |
- |
|
|
|
14 |
|
3.963M |
|
|
|||||
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|
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|
|
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|
||
|
Sep |
08:30 |
09/10 |
|
410K |
410K |
414K |
|
|
|
|
15 |
|
|
|
||||||
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|
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|
|
|
Sep |
08:30 |
09/03 |
|
3700K |
3700K |
3717K |
|
|
|
|
15 |
|
|
|
||||||
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
Sep |
08:30 |
CPI |
Aug |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
|
|
15 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
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|
|
Sep |
08:30 |
Aug |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
15 |
|
|
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||||||
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|
Sep |
08:30 |
Empire Manufacturing |
Sep |
|
-5.0 |
-4.0 |
-7.7 |
|
|
|
15 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sep |
08:30 |
Current Account |
Q2 |
|
-$121.0B |
-$121.5B |
-$119.3 |
|
|
|
15 |
Balance |
|
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|||||
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||
|
Sep |
09:15 |
Aug |
|
-0.2% |
0.0% |
0.9% |
|
|
|
|
15 |
|
|
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||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sep |
09:15 |
Aug |
|
77.0% |
77.4% |
77.5% |
|
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|
|
15 |
|
|
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Sep |
10:00 |
Sep |
|
-15.0 |
-10.0 |
-30.7 |
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|
15 |
|
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Sep |
09:00 |
Net Long-Term TIC |
Jul |
|
NA |
NA |
$3.7B |
|
|
|
16 |
Flows |
|
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||
|
Sep |
09:55 |
Sep |
|
53.0 |
56.3 |
55.7 |
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16 |
|
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Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR
R1 R2
|
Dec Emini |
P |
1098.2 |
1134 |
1161 |
1209.25 |
1195 |
1233.50 |
|
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|
S+P |
|
5 |
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec Emini |
P |
2038 |
2103.50 |
2204 |
2289 |
2293.25 |
2309.50 |
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|
Naz |
|
|
|
|
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Yen |
P |
127.34 |
128.22 |
129.95 |
130.74 |
130.19 |
131.28 |
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EC |
P |
131.97 |
134.27 |
136.32 |
138.24 |
140.85 |
145.13 |
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|
Dec 10 |
N |
129.07 |
130.02 |
129.17 |
130.12 |
131.12 |
131.27 |
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|
Year |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 30 |
P |
138.04 |
139.23 |
139.19 |
140.31 |
142.13 |
143.16 |
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Year |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
Nov |
N |
13.96 |
14.11 |
13.74 |
13.93 |
14.38 |
14.49 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Soybeans |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec Corn |
PRD |
7.09 |
7.22 |
7.11 |
7.29 |
7.57 |
7.78 |
|
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|
(D) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec Gold |
P |
1729 |
1795 |
1792 |
1845 |
1925 |
1989 |
|
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|
Dec Silver |
N |
38.69 |
40.06 |
40.09 |
41.19 |
43.12 |
44.81 |
|
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|
Dec |
N |
388 |
394.50 |
385 |
397 |
411.00 |
421.80 |
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|
Copper |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nov |
P |
79.60 |
83.30 |
88.09 |
90.11 |
90.59 |
94.17 |
|
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|
Crude |
|
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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not foreveryone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
******************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.