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Phone: 800.840.5617
Phone: 312.920.0212
Fax: 855.994.4111


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United Futures Trading Company, Inc.
9247 Broadway
Suite EE
Merrillville, IN 46410

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Busy day in economic releases

Top Day Recommendations

9.15.11

 

Today is a really busy day in terms of economic releases. First we have initial and continuing jobless claims. Initial claims have remained steadfastly above 400,000 for an annoyingly long time. At the exact same time we have the release of the consumer price index and the core CPI. Inflationary pressures seem to be minimal to say the most, at least in the United States. If that’s not enough data all at one second we also have the release of the Empire State Manufacturing index which saw contraction last month. After digesting this we have the 9:15 release of industrial production capacity utilization. Then there’s the highly dissected release of the Philadelphia Fed index at 10 o’clock. Last month’s release of the Philly Fed sparked debate about a severe recession. Last month the reading was -30.7. That sounded like a depression. The expectation is for -15.

 

Assurances yesterday from Markozy lifted stock markets and put selling pressure on gold. The precious metal continues to be offered this morning as central banks are raising cash.

 

 

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com  Briefing.com

Prior

Revised

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast

Consensus

 

From

 

14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

08:30

 Core PPI

Aug

 

0.2%

0.2%

0.4%

 

 

14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

08:30

 Retail Sales

Aug

 

-0.5%

0.2%

0.5%

 

 

14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

08:30

 Retail Sales ex-auto

Aug

 

-0.2%

0.3%

0.5%

 

 

14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

10:00

 Business Inventories

Jul

 

0.4%

0.5%

0.3%

 

 

14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

10:30

Crude Inventories

09/10

 

NA

NA

-

 

 

14

 

3.963M

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

08:30

 Initial Claims

09/10

 

410K

410K

414K

 

 

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

08:30

 Continuing Claims

09/03

 

3700K

3700K

3717K

 

 

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

08:30

CPI

Aug

 

0.2%

0.2%

0.5%

 

 

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

08:30

 Core CPI

Aug

 

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

08:30

Empire Manufacturing

Sep

 

-5.0

-4.0

-7.7

 

 

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

08:30

Current Account

Q2

 

-$121.0B

-$121.5B

-$119.3

 

 

15

Balance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

09:15

 Industrial Production

Aug

 

-0.2%

0.0%

0.9%

 

 

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

09:15

 Capacity Utilization

Aug

 

77.0%

77.4%

77.5%

 

 

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

10:00

 Philadelphia Fed

Sep

 

-15.0

-10.0

-30.7

 

 

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

09:00

Net Long-Term TIC

Jul

 

NA

NA

$3.7B

 

 

16

Flows

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

09:55

 Mich Sentiment

Sep

 

53.0

56.3

55.7

 

 

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

 

Legend

 

P is Positive

 

N is Negative

 

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

 

S2 is strong support

 

S1 is good support

 

DS is Daily Support

 

DR is Daily Resistance

 

R1 is Good Resistance

 

R2 is Strong Resistance

 

Levels are for the most active futures contract

 

Daily Support and Resistance

 

Trend              S2                  S1                 DS                    DR

R1                R2

Dec Emini

P

1098.2

1134

1161

1209.25

1195

1233.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

S+P

 

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec Emini

P

2038

2103.50

2204

2289

2293.25

2309.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Naz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yen

P

127.34

128.22

129.95

130.74

130.19

131.28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EC

P

131.97

134.27

136.32

138.24

140.85

145.13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec 10

N

129.07

130.02

129.17

130.12

131.12

131.27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec 30

P

138.04

139.23

139.19

140.31

142.13

143.16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nov

N

13.96

14.11

13.74

13.93

14.38

14.49

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Soybeans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec Corn

PRD

7.09

7.22

7.11

7.29

7.57

7.78

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(D)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec Gold

P

1729

1795

1792

1845

1925

1989

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec Silver

N

38.69

40.06

40.09

41.19

43.12

44.81

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec

N

388

394.50

385

397

411.00

421.80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Copper

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nov

P

79.60

83.30

88.09

90.11

90.59

94.17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crude

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

 

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

 

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

 

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not foreveryone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 Charles Kespert

******************

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

 

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.