Top Day Recommendations
9.21.11
Today is the second day and final day of the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The communiqué will be released at its usually prescribed time 2:15 in the afternoon. It’s universally anticipated that interest rates will remain unchanged and that the Fed will announce operation Twist. This operation would rearrange their portfolio so that they would be selling short dated maturities and buying long dated maturities thereby flattening the yield curve. An unintended result of this would be to flatten the margins of profit for banks. As far as overnight action, in front of the FOMC meeting action has been choppy, range bound, almost predictable. There is a high degree of probability that the market is at this point so confused about the euro zone crisis and the moment to moment changing responses of the EU, ECB and IMF (also known as the troika) that the proper response in terms of market position changes so frequently that the market ends up chopping around producing whitecaps signifying nothing.
Of course the usual caveat must be stated with the FOMC meeting concluding; reduce exposures as the market will have some sort of violent inexplicable response, fill all stops and probably closed unchanged.
Week of September 19 - September 23
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Briefing.com |
Prior |
Revised |
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Forecast |
Consensus |
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From |
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|
Sep |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing |
Sep |
|
15 |
15 |
15 |
|
|
|
19 |
Market Index |
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Sep |
08:30 |
Aug |
575K |
592K |
604K |
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|
20 |
|
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|
|
Sep |
08:30 |
Aug |
575K |
588K |
597K |
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Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Briefing.com |
Prior |
Revised |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forecast |
Consensus |
|
From |
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|
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sep |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
09/17 |
|
NA |
NA |
+6.3% |
|
|
|
21 |
|
|
|
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|
Sep |
10:00 |
Aug |
|
4.50M |
4.70M |
4.67M |
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|
21 |
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Sep |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
09/17 |
|
NA |
NA |
-6.7M |
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|
21 |
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Sep |
14:15 |
FOMC Rate Decision |
Sep |
|
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
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|
21 |
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Sep |
08:30 |
09/17 |
|
412K |
417K |
428K |
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|
22 |
|
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Sep |
08:30 |
09/10 |
|
3710K |
3730K |
3726K |
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|
22 |
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Sep |
10:00 |
FHFA Housing Price |
Jul |
|
NA |
NA |
0.9% |
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22 |
Index |
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Sep |
10:00 |
Aug |
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
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|
22 |
|
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Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is strong support
S1 is good support DS is Daily Support DR DailyResistance Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR
R1 R2
|
Dec |
PRD |
1092.2 |
1152.00 |
1182.5 |
1212.00 |
1243.00 |
12 74.25 |
|
|
5 |
|
0 |
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Eminifile |
(D) |
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S+P |
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Dec Emini |
P |
2053 |
2180 |
2276 |
2324 |
2371 |
2435 |
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Naz |
|
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Dec Yen |
P |
128.30 |
129.28 |
130.65 |
131.34 |
131.02 |
131.78 |
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Dec EC |
P |
133.12 |
135.47 |
135.96 |
137.49 |
139.71 |
141.60 |
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Dec 10 |
N |
127.27 |
128.22 |
130.5 |
130.23 |
134.24 |
131.31 |
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Year |
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Dec 30 |
P |
136.24 |
138.03 |
140.24 |
141.3 |
141.12 |
143.10 |
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Year |
|
|
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|
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|
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Nov |
N |
12.97 |
13.26 |
13.32 |
13.47 |
14.08 |
14.61 |
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Soybeans |
|
|
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Dec Corn |
N |
6.53 |
6.72 |
6.85 |
6.99 |
7.30 |
7.68 |
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Dec Gold |
P |
1715.3 |
1765.10 |
1782.5 |
1824.90 |
1864.90 |
1914.90 |
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0 |
|
0 |
|
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Dec Silver |
N |
38.36 |
39.53 |
39.45 |
40.59 |
41.73 |
42.76 |
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|
Dec |
N |
380 |
387 |
368 |
379 |
401 |
408 |
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Copper |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Nov |
P |
8252 |
8530 |
85.55 |
87.98 |
9073 |
9338 |
|
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Crude |
|
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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
******************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.