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Fed will announce operation twist

Top Day Recommendations

 

9.21.11

 

Today is the second day and final day of the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The communiqué will be released at its usually prescribed time 2:15 in the afternoon. It’s universally anticipated that interest rates will remain unchanged and that the Fed will announce operation Twist. This operation would rearrange their portfolio so that they would be selling short dated maturities and buying long dated maturities thereby flattening the yield curve. An unintended result of this would be to flatten the margins of profit for banks. As far as overnight action, in front of the FOMC meeting action has been choppy, range bound, almost predictable. There is a high degree of probability that the market is at this point so confused about the euro zone crisis and the moment to moment changing responses of the EU, ECB and IMF (also known as the troika) that the proper response in terms of market position changes so frequently that the market ends up chopping around producing whitecaps signifying nothing.

 

Of course the usual caveat must be stated with the FOMC meeting concluding; reduce exposures as the market will have some sort of violent inexplicable response, fill all stops and probably closed unchanged.

 

Week of September 19 - September 23

 

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com  Briefing.com

Prior

Revised

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast

Consensus

 

From

 

Sep

10:00

NAHB Housing

Sep

 

15

15

15

 

 

19

Market Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

08:30

 Housing Starts

Aug

575K

592K

604K

 

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

08:30

 Building Permits

Aug

575K

588K

597K

 


 

 

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com  Briefing.com

Prior

Revised

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast

Consensus

 

From

 

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

07:00

MBA Mortgage Index

09/17

 

NA

NA

+6.3%

 

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

10:00

 Existing Home Sales

Aug

 

4.50M

4.70M

4.67M

 

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

10:30

Crude Inventories

09/17

 

NA

NA

-6.7M

 

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

14:15

FOMC Rate Decision

Sep

 

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

 

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

08:30

 Initial Claims

09/17

 

412K

417K

428K

 

 

22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

08:30

 Continuing Claims

09/10

 

3710K

3730K

3726K

 

 

22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

10:00

FHFA Housing Price

Jul

 

NA

NA

0.9%

 

 

22

Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

10:00

 Leading Indicators

Aug

 

0.0%

0.1%

0.5%

 

 

22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

 

Legend

 

P is Positive N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is strong support

S1 is good support DS is Daily Support DR DailyResistance  Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance

 

R2 is Strong Resistance

 

Levels are for the most active futures contract

 

Daily Support and Resistance

 

Trend              S2                  S1                 DS                    DR

R1                R2

Dec

PRD

1092.2

1152.00

1182.5

1212.00

1243.00

12 74.25

 

5

 

0

 

 

 

 

Eminifile

(D)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

S+P

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec Emini

P

2053

2180

2276

2324

2371

2435

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Naz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec Yen

P

128.30

129.28

130.65

131.34

131.02

131.78

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec EC

P

133.12

135.47

135.96

137.49

139.71

141.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec 10

N

127.27

128.22

130.5

130.23

134.24

131.31

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec 30

P

136.24

138.03

140.24

141.3

141.12

143.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nov

N

12.97

13.26

13.32

13.47

14.08

14.61

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Soybeans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec Corn

N

6.53

6.72

6.85

6.99

7.30

7.68

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec Gold

P

1715.3

1765.10

1782.5

1824.90

1864.90

1914.90

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

 

0

 

 

 

 

Dec Silver

N

38.36

39.53

39.45

40.59

41.73

42.76

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec

N

380

387

368

379

401

408

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Copper

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nov

P

8252

8530

85.55

87.98

9073

9338

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crude

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

 

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

 

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 Charles Kespert

******************

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

 

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.