Top Day Recommendations
10.12.11
Another light news day. These days when there are news vacuums in Europe, (no news is good news) markets spin this as a positive. Investors believe, or hope, that Europe will aggressively deal with its sovereign debt crisis. Consequently, those traders who are short the EC are forced to aggressively cover their positions and as there is such congruence between markets, as there is such a high degree of correlation these days, everything moves in unison; overnight it’s dollar lower, EC higher, equities higher, bonds lower, crude higher. In short, nothing is acting independently. All of these markets are colors of the same fabric. Again we have a major debt repayment scheduled for Greece at the end of the week so markets may temper their enthusiasm this afternoon. And in reality, what sort of clarity has been achieved in Europe? A prospective plan on November 5th?
FOMC minutes will be released at two o’clock today, delayed one day because of the government holiday on Monday.
Week of October 10 - October 14
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Oct | 14:00 | FOMC Minutes | Sep. | |||||
| 11 | 21 | |||||||
| Oct | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 10/08 | NA | NA | -4.3% | ||
| 12 | ||||||||
| Oct | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 10/08 | 400K | 406K | 401K | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
| Oct | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 10/01 | 3700K | 3700K | 3700K | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
| Oct | 08:30 | Trade Balance | Aug | -$45.5B | -$46.1B | - | ||
| 13 | $44.8B | |||||||
| Oct | 11:00 | Crude Inventories | 10/08 | NA | NA | - | ||
| 13 | 4.679M | |||||||
| Oct | 14:00 | Treasury Budget | Sep | -$64.0B | -$67.0B | - | ||
| 13 | $34.6B | |||||||
| Oct | 08:30 | Retail Sales | Sep | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | ||
| 14 | ||||||||
| Oct | 08:30 | Retail Sales ex-auto | Sep | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | ||
| 14 | ||||||||
| Oct | 08:30 | Export Prices ex-ag. | Sep | NA | NA | 0.3% | ||
| 14 | ||||||||
| Oct | 08:30 | Import Prices ex-oil | Sep | NA | NA | 0.2% | ||
| 14 | ||||||||
| Oct | 09:55 | Mich Sentiment | Oct | 60.0 | 60.0 | 59.4 | ||
| 14 | ||||||||
| Oct | 10:00 | Business Inventories | Aug | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | ||
| 14 | ||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
| Daily Support and Resistance | ||||
| Trend | S2 | S1 | DS | DR |
| R1 | R2 |
| Dec Emini | P | 1026.5 | 1090.75 | 1182 | 1202.50 | 1196.50 | 1238.00 |
| 0 | |||||||
| S+P | |||||||
| Dec Emini | P | 1963.5 | 2082.50 | 2268 | 2316.50 | 2273.00 | 2346.00 |
| 0 | |||||||
| Naz | |||||||
| Dec Yen | P | 128.72 | 129.50 | 130.82 | 130.28 | 130.87 | 131.64 |
| Dec EC | P | 129.71. | 131.76 | 135.81 | 137.50 | 135.86 | 137.23 |
| Dec 10 | N | 126.12 | 128.09 | 127.17 | 128.16 | 130.22 | 132.16 |
| Year | |||||||
| Dec 30 | N | 136.15 | 138.28 | 138.24 | 140.16 | 145.02 | 148.27 |
| Year | |||||||
| Nov | PRD | 11.28 | 11.43 | 11.91 | 12.62 | 11.84 | 12.04 |
| Soybeans | (U) | ||||||
| Dec Corn | PRD | 5.51 | 5.75 | 6.14 | 6.60 | 6.20 | 6.41 |
| (U) | |||||||
| Dec Gold | P | 1552 | 1598.7 | 1648.7 | 1699 | 1683.6 | 1725.0 |
| 0 | |||||||
| Dec Silver | N | 26.42 | 28.82 | 31.37 | 33.20 | 33.24 | 35.25 |
| Dec | P | 286 | 307 | 321 | 345 | 341 | 354 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Nov | P | 71.55 | 77.21 | 8430 | 8697 | 86.26 | 89.65 |
| Crude |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.