Top Day Recommendations
10.17.11
Markets had been higher with the hope that the European Union will come up with a strategy to end the sovereign debt crisis within a week. The G-20 meeting concluded this weekend after endorsing parts of a plan to avoid a Greek default and insulate banks. The nascent plan has yet to be made public. It may include the devaluation of Greek bonds by as much as 50%. The European Financial Stability Facility stands at 611 billion and may be increased. Banks may have to hold a 9% reserve fund, up from 5% previously.
Difficulties remain as Greek PM Papandreou will ask parliament this week for bigger wage and pension cuts and may even ask for the dismissal of 30 thousand state workers.
Gains were pared when a German official expressed skepticism that the plan at the end of the week will result in a quick resolution to outstanding problems.
At 9:15 Industrial production is expected to show a fifth straight month of expansion while the Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected to show a contraction.
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
P is Positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is strong support S1 is good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance R1 is Good Resistance R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR
R1 R2
|
Dec Emini S+P |
P |
1134 |
1176 |
1201 |
1230 |
1241 |
1264 |
|
Dec Emini |
P |
2147 |
2257 |
2335 |
2384 |
2423 |
2479 |
|
Naz |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec Yen |
P |
127.89 |
128.75 |
129.14 |
130.15 |
130.83 |
132.05 |
|
Dec EC |
P |
1319 |
1353 |
139.32 |
137.50 |
1404 |
1422 |
|
Dec 10 Year |
N |
126.25 |
127.14 |
127.23 |
128.17 |
128.22 |
129.18 |
|
Dec 30 Year |
N |
135.20 |
137.01 |
137.19 |
139.14 |
140.20 |
142.26 |
|
Nov Soybeans |
P |
11.17 |
11.93 |
12.38 |
12.80 |
13.11 |
13.52 |
|
Dec Corn |
N |
5.74 |
6.07 |
6.32 |
6.48 |
6.63 |
6.87 |
|
Dec Gold |
P |
1617 |
1649 |
1668.5 0 |
1694.50 |
1703 |
1735 |
|
Dec Silver |
N |
30.27 |
31.22 |
31.40 |
32.75 |
33.11 |
34.05 |
|
Dec Copper |
P |
316 |
329 |
333 |
345 |
342 |
357 |
|
Nov Crude |
P |
81.14 |
84.21 |
84.57 |
88.16 |
88.88 |
90.48 |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.