Top Day Recommendations
10.18.11
Overnight, Chinese growth, as measured by real gross domestic product, contracted to 9.1% year on year as opposed to last quarters 9.5%. This indicates to some observers that China is headed for a soft landing. Goldman Sachs reported earnings that were less than expected. It’s only the second quarterly loss for Goldman since 1999. Other than that we have a skewed (confused) market with the dollar stronger, bonds higher, NASDAQ higher, S&P lower, crude oil slightly lowered and gold lower as well due to the stronger dollar and lower EC. At 830 we get the release for the producer price index and the core producer price index forecast to come in at 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. We also get net long-term TIC flows or foreign investment in US debt securities. Moody’s credit examination of France combined with fears of euro zone sovereign debt contagion plus German economic contraction and soft demand for euro debt of all work to strengthen the dollar this morning.
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
is Positive N is Negative
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good Resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend S2 S1 DS DR
R1 R2
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Dec Emini |
P |
1134 |
1176 |
1181.2 |
1218.50 |
1241 |
1264 |
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5 |
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S+P |
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Dec Emini |
P |
2147 |
2257 |
2295.0 |
2367 |
2423 |
2479 |
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0 |
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Naz |
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Dec Yen |
P |
127.89 |
128.75 |
129.44 |
130.91 |
130.83 |
132.05 |
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Dec EC |
P |
1319 |
1353 |
135.97 |
138.54 |
1404 |
1422 |
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Dec 10 |
N |
126.25 |
127.14 |
128.00 |
129.15 |
128.22 |
129.18 |
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Year |
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Dec 30 |
N |
135.20 |
137.01 |
138.05 |
141.13 |
140.20 |
142.26 |
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Year |
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Nov |
P |
11.17 |
11.93 |
12.36 |
12.66 |
13.11 |
13.52 |
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Soybeans |
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Dec Corn |
N |
5.74 |
6.07 |
6.29 |
6.46 |
6.63 |
6.87 |
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Dec Gold |
P |
1617 |
1649 |
1648 |
1693 |
1703 |
1735 |
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Dec Silver |
N |
30.27 |
31.22 |
30.79 |
32.50 |
33.11 |
34.05 |
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Dec |
P |
316 |
329 |
325 |
345 |
342 |
357 |
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Copper |
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Nov |
P |
81.14 |
84.21 |
84.50 |
87.74 |
88.88 |
90.48 |
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Crude |
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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.