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China growth headed for soft landing

Top Day Recommendations

10.18.11

Overnight, Chinese growth, as measured by real gross domestic product, contracted to 9.1% year on year as opposed to last quarters 9.5%. This indicates to some observers that China is headed for a soft landing. Goldman Sachs reported earnings that were less than expected. It’s only the second quarterly loss for Goldman since 1999. Other than that we have a skewed (confused) market with the dollar stronger, bonds higher, NASDAQ higher, S&P lower, crude oil slightly lowered and gold lower as well due to the stronger dollar and lower EC. At 830 we get the release for the producer price index and the core producer price index forecast to come in at 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. We also get net long-term TIC flows or foreign investment in US debt securities. Moody’s credit examination of France combined with fears of euro zone sovereign debt contagion plus German economic contraction and soft demand for euro debt of all work to strengthen the dollar this morning.

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

  is Positive N is Negative

PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good Resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

 

Daily Support and Resistance

 

                                Trend              S2                  S1                 DS                    DR

R1                R2

Dec Emini

P

1134

1176

1181.2

1218.50

1241

1264

 

 

 

5

 

 

 

 

S+P

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec Emini

P

2147

2257

2295.0

2367

2423

2479

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

Naz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec Yen

P

127.89

128.75

129.44

130.91

130.83

132.05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec EC

P

1319

1353

135.97

138.54

1404

1422

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec 10

N

126.25

127.14

128.00

129.15

128.22

129.18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec 30

N

135.20

137.01

138.05

141.13

140.20

142.26

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nov

P

11.17

11.93

12.36

12.66

13.11

13.52

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Soybeans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec Corn

N

5.74

6.07

6.29

6.46

6.63

6.87

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec Gold

P

1617

1649

1648

1693

1703

1735

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec Silver

N

30.27

31.22

30.79

32.50

33.11

34.05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec

P

316

329

325

345

342

357

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Copper

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nov

P

81.14

84.21

84.50

87.74

88.88

90.48

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crude

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.