Top Day Recommendations
10.20.11
Lots of activity overnight. It is all centered on prospects for the resolution of the Greek debt crisis. The Greek Parliament is voting on a new round of austerity measures today while at the same time there appears to be about 100,000 people demonstrating outside of the Parliament building. The protests have turned violent with Communists battling anarchists. Market volatility should continue. It’s difficult to have a lot of conviction going into the weekend and the EU foreign ministers meeting. Yesterday we had a hopeful morning as it appeared that France and Germany have agreed on how to leverage the European bailout fund which only became a dismal afternoon when it appeared that there was no such agreement in place. Also oil had a huge range yesterday as it was up early on the inventory numbers showing a drawdown but lower later as traders realized that demand was very soft. Also the notes of the Federal Reserve’s beige book which includes the minutes of the last open market committee meeting indicated that the US economy is growing at a very slow pace and this helped to contribute to the decline in oil prices. So, the advice remains the same: reduce the size of your position, use tighter stops and let profits run. Easier said than done.
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend WS2 W S1 DS DR
WR1 WR2
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Dec Emini |
U |
1134 |
1176 |
1196.2 |
1220.00 |
1241 |
1264 |
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5 |
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S+P |
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Dec Emini |
U |
2147 |
2257 |
2393 |
2355 |
2423 |
2479 |
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Naz |
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Dec Yen |
U |
127.89 |
128.75 |
130.17 |
130.53 |
130.83 |
132.05 |
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Dec EC |
U |
1319 |
1353 |
136.83 |
138.28 |
1404 |
1422 |
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Dec 10 |
U |
126.25 |
127.14 |
128.13 |
129.05 |
128.22 |
129.18 |
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Year |
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Dec 30 |
D |
135.20 |
137.01 |
138.22 |
140.02 |
140.20 |
142.26 |
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Year |
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Nov |
D |
11.17 |
11.93 |
12.00 |
12.48 |
13.11 |
13.52 |
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Soybeans |
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Dec Corn |
D |
5.74 |
6.07 |
6.285 |
6.47 |
6.63 |
6.87 |
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Dec Gold |
D |
1617 |
1649 |
1625.8 |
1662.2 |
1703 |
1735 |
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Dec Silver |
D |
30.27 |
31.22 |
30.19 |
31.98 |
33.11 |
34.05 |
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Dec |
U |
316 |
329 |
310.90 |
335.50 |
342 |
357 |
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Copper |
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Dec |
U |
81.14 |
84.21 |
84.98 |
88.64 |
88.88 |
90.48 |
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Crude |
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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.