Top Day Recommendations
10.21.11
Lots of overnight sound and fury probably signifying next to nothing. It’s difficult to hold positions going into this weekend given the ongoing, fluid, confusing situation in the euro zone. First there’s a summit meeting to address the expansion of the European bail out fund, then there’s not a meeting, or at least not a definitive meeting, or maybe the real meeting will be held on Wednesday, than France and Germany have come to a conclusion about how to leverage the bailout fund, then they haven’t come to a conclusion about how to leverage the bailout fund, etc. etc. etc. and tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow creeps into this petty pace of day-to-day. The euro zone crisis is the crisis of 2011 to try men’s souls. Before it is solved it will drive us all mad
No eco data points today.
Look for crude oil to stall out at 8735 and the NASDAQ to stall out at 2333 even though Verizon doubled its profits.
Week of October 17 - October 21
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Briefing.com |
Prior |
Revised |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forecast |
Consensus |
|
From |
|
|
Oct |
08:30 |
Empire Manufacturing |
Oct |
|
-5.0 |
-4.0 |
-8.82 |
|
|
|
17 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
09:15 |
Sep |
|
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
17 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
09:15 |
Sep |
|
77.5% |
77.5% |
77.4% |
|
|
|
|
17 |
|
|
|
||||||
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
08:30 |
PPI |
Sep |
|
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
18 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
08:30 |
Sep |
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
18 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
09:00 |
Net Long-Term TIC |
Aug |
|
NA |
NA |
$9.5B |
|
|
|
18 |
Flows |
|
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|
|||||
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||
|
Oct |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing |
Oct |
|
14 |
14 |
14 |
|
|
|
18 |
Market Index |
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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||
|
Oct |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
10/15 |
|
NA |
NA |
+1.3% |
|
|
|
19 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
08:30 |
CPI |
Sep |
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
19 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
08:30 |
Sep |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
19 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
08:30 |
Sep |
|
575k |
595k |
571K |
|
|
|
|
19 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
08:30 |
Sep |
|
600k |
610k |
620K |
|
|
|
|
19 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
10/15 |
|
NA |
NA |
1.344M |
|
|
|
19 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
14:00 |
Fed's Beige Book |
Oct |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19 |
|
|
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|
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|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
08:30 |
10/15 |
|
400k |
404k |
404K |
|
|
|
|
20 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
08:30 |
10/08 |
|
3700k |
3690k |
3670K |
|
|
|
|
20 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
10:00 |
Sep |
|
5.10M |
4.94M |
5.03M |
|
|
|
|
20 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
10:00 |
Oct |
|
-5.0 |
-9.6 |
-17.5 |
|
|
|
|
20 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
10:00 |
Sep |
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
20 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
Trend WS2 W S1 DS DR
WR1 WR2
|
Dec Emini |
U |
1134 |
1176 |
1196.2 |
1230.00 |
1241 |
1264 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
S+P |
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec Emini |
PRD |
2147 |
2257 |
2268 |
2333 |
2423 |
2479 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Naz |
(D) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec Yen |
U |
127.89 |
128.75 |
129.84 |
130.90 |
130.83 |
132.05 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec EC |
U |
1319 |
1353 |
136.62 |
138.50 |
1404 |
1422 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Dec 10 |
U |
126.25 |
127.14 |
128.10 |
129.04 |
128.22 |
129.18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Year |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 30 |
D |
135.20 |
137.01 |
138.12 |
139.29 |
140.20 |
142.26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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||
|
Year |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nov |
D |
11.17 |
11.93 |
12.08 |
12.42 |
13.11 |
13.52 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Soybeans |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec Corn |
D |
5.74 |
6.07 |
6.37 |
6.63 |
6.63 |
6.87 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Dec Gold |
D |
1617 |
1649 |
1596.2 |
1663 |
1703 |
1735 |
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec Silver |
D |
30.27 |
31.22 |
29.68 |
31.97 |
33.11 |
34.05 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Dec |
D |
316 |
329 |
298 |
331 |
342 |
357 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Copper |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec |
PRD |
81.14 |
84.21 |
84.48 |
87.38 |
88.88 |
90.48 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Crude |
(D) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.