Top Day Recommendations
10.25.11
The focus yesterday was on the Chinese purchasing manager’s index which came in with a reading of 50, the first expansion in four months. This sparked rallies and crude oil, copper and US equities. As long as Europe keeps kicking the sovereign debt crisis can down the road and continues to have meetings to draw plans about other meetings to plan other meetings to come up with a plan there is room for equities to continue to drift higher. This is called climbing a wall of worry. Theoretical upside projections unless the current pattern is broken are somewhat surprising with the S&P looking at 1307, the EC looking at 145 and crude oil trading above $100 a barrel.
Oil, which has broken out to the upside, will be highly sensitive to tonight’s release of the American Petroleum Institute numbers and tomorrow’s Department of Energy figures.
Today we get the Case-Schiller report on housing activity then consumer confidence at 10 o’clock.
Week of October 24 - October 28
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Oct | 09:00 | Case-Shiller 20-city | Aug | -4.0% | -3.5% | -4.11% | ||
| 25 | Index | |||||||
| Oct | 10:00 | Consumer Confidence | Oct | 46.0 | 46.0 | 45.4 | ||
| 25 | ||||||||
| Oct | 10:00 | FHFA Housing Price | Aug | NA | NA | 0.8% | ||
| 25 | Index | |||||||
| Oct | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 10/22 | NA | NA | -14.9% | ||
| 26 | ||||||||
| Oct | 08:30 | Durable Orders | Sep | -1.5% | -1.0% | -0.1% | ||
| 26 | ||||||||
| Oct | 08:30 | Durable Orders -ex | Sep | -0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.1% | |
| 26 | Transportation | |||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Oct | 10:00 | New Home Sales | Sep | 290K | 300K | 295K | ||
| 26 | ||||||||
| Oct | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 10/22 | NA | NA | - | ||
| 26 | 4.729M | |||||||
| Oct | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 10/22 | 400K | 403K | 403K | ||
| 27 | ||||||||
| Oct | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 10/15 | 3700K | 3700K | 3719K | ||
| 27 | ||||||||
| Oct | 08:30 | GDP-Adv. | Q3 | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | ||
| 27 | ||||||||
| Oct | 08:30 | GDP Deflator | Q3 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | ||
| 27 | ||||||||
| Oct | 10:00 | Pending Home Sales | Aug | 0.0% | -1.0% | -1.2% | ||
| 27 | ||||||||
| Oct | 08:30 | Personal Income | Sep | 0.4% | 0.3% | -0.1% | ||
| 28 | ||||||||
| Oct | 08:30 | Personal Spending | Sep | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | ||
| 28 | ||||||||
| Oct | 08:30 | PCE Prices - Core | Sep | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | ||
| 28 | ||||||||
| Oct | 08:30 | Employment Cost | Q3 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | ||
| 28 | Index | |||||||
| Oct | 09:55 | Michigan Sentiment - | Oct | 57.0 | 57.5 | 57.5 | ||
| 28 | Final | |||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
| Daily Support and Resistance | ||||
| Trend | WS2 | W S1 | DS | DR |
WR1 WR2
| Dec Emini | U | 1168.5 | 1201.90 | 1232 | 1257 | 1252.25 | 1269.00 |
| S+P | 0 | ||||||
| Dec Emini | U | 2210.0 | 2272.00 | 2235.0 | 2400.00 | 2392 | 2450 |
| 0 | |||||||
| Naz | 0 | ||||||
| Dec Yen | U | 128 | 129.75 | 131.04 | 131.91 | 132.70 | 133.90 |
| Dec EC | U | 135.43 | 137.01 | 138.53 | 139.87 | 139.61 | 140.63 |
| Dec 10 | U | 126.28 | 127.24 | 127.29 | .20 8.23 | 129.13 | 130.05 |
| Year | |||||||
| Dec 30 | D | 135.12 | 136.30 | 137.06 | 138.26 | 140.17 | 142.18 |
| Year | |||||||
| Nov | D | 11.58 | 11.85 | 12.10 | 12.41 | 12.55 | 12.99 |
| Soybeans | |||||||
| Dec Corn | U | 6.13 | 6.31 | 6.44 | 6.59 | 6.66 | 6.3 |
| Dec Gold | PRD | 1556 | 1599 | 1638 | 1677 | 1691 | 1740 |
| (U) | |||||||
| Dec Silver | PRD | 2858 | 2997 | 31.23 | 32.04 | 3271 | 3406 |
| (u) |
| Dec | U | 281.50 | 303.30 | 329 | 358 | 346.50 | 368.00 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Dec | U | 81.67 | 84.60 | 88.22 | 94.93 | 90.07 | 92.61 |
| Crude |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.