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Phone: 312.920.0212
Fax: 855.994.4111


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9247 Broadway
Suite EE
Merrillville, IN 46410

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Climbing a wall of worry

Top Day Recommendations

10.25.11

The focus yesterday was on the Chinese purchasing manager’s index which came in with a reading of 50, the first expansion in four months. This sparked rallies and crude oil, copper and US equities. As long as Europe keeps kicking the sovereign debt crisis can down the road and continues to have meetings to draw plans about other meetings to plan other meetings to come up with a plan there is room for equities to continue to drift higher. This is called climbing a wall of worry. Theoretical upside projections unless the current pattern is broken are somewhat surprising with the S&P looking at 1307, the EC looking at 145 and crude oil trading above $100 a barrel.

Oil, which has broken out to the upside, will be highly sensitive to tonight’s release of the American Petroleum Institute numbers and tomorrow’s Department of Energy figures.

Today we get the Case-Schiller report on housing activity then consumer confidence at 10 o’clock.

Week of October 24 - October 28

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Oct 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Aug   -4.0% -3.5% -4.11%  
25 Index    
             
Oct 10:00 Consumer Confidence Oct   46.0 46.0 45.4  
25    
               
Oct 10:00 FHFA Housing Price Aug   NA NA 0.8%  
25 Index    
             
Oct 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 10/22   NA NA -14.9%  
26    
               
Oct 08:30 Durable Orders Sep   -1.5% -1.0% -0.1%  
26    
               
Oct 08:30 Durable Orders -ex Sep   -0.1% 0.4% 0.0% -0.1%
26 Transportation  
             
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Oct 10:00 New Home Sales Sep   290K 300K 295K  
26    
               
Oct 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/22   NA NA -  
26   4.729M  
             
Oct 08:30 Initial Claims 10/22   400K 403K 403K  
27    
               
Oct 08:30 Continuing Claims 10/15   3700K 3700K 3719K  
27    
               
Oct 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q3   2.0% 2.2% 1.3%  
27    
               
Oct 08:30 GDP Deflator Q3   2.2% 2.5% 2.5%  
27    
               
Oct 10:00 Pending Home Sales Aug   0.0% -1.0% -1.2%  
27    
               
Oct 08:30 Personal Income Sep   0.4% 0.3% -0.1%  
28    
               
Oct 08:30 Personal Spending Sep   0.8% 0.6% 0.2%  
28    
               
Oct 08:30 PCE Prices - Core Sep   0.1% 0.1% 0.1%  
28    
               
Oct 08:30 Employment Cost Q3   0.6% 0.6% 0.7%  
28 Index    
             
Oct 09:55 Michigan Sentiment - Oct   57.0 57.5 57.5  
28 Final    
             

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance  
Trend WS2 W S1 DS DR

WR1 WR2

Dec Emini U 1168.5 1201.90 1232 1257 1252.25 1269.00
           
S+P   0          
             
Dec Emini U 2210.0 2272.00 2235.0 2400.00 2392 2450
    0      
Naz   0        
             
Dec Yen U 128 129.75 131.04 131.91 132.70 133.90
           
               
Dec EC U 135.43 137.01 138.53 139.87 139.61 140.63
           
Dec 10 U 126.28 127.24 127.29 .20 8.23 129.13 130.05
           
Year              
Dec 30 D 135.12 136.30 137.06 138.26 140.17 142.18
           
Year              
               
Nov D 11.58 11.85 12.10 12.41 12.55 12.99
           
Soybeans              
Dec Corn U 6.13 6.31 6.44 6.59 6.66 6.3
           
Dec Gold PRD 1556 1599 1638 1677 1691 1740
           
  (U)            
Dec Silver PRD 2858 2997 31.23 32.04 3271 3406
           
  (u)            
Dec U 281.50 303.30 329 358 346.50 368.00
           
Copper              
Dec U 81.67 84.60 88.22 94.93 90.07 92.61
           
Crude              

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.