Top Day Recommendations
In many respects, the market continues to be held hostage in the fog of the European debt crisis. The summit meeting is now underway. Of course yesterdays headlines that the European finance ministers had canceled their meeting sent waves through the trading session but the effect dissipated when it became realized that the summit was still on. Yesterday we did see gold and the dollar become simultaneously strong which was a flight to safety further underscored by a move higher in the bond market. Where does this leave us? Welcome to limbo.
Signals to the market that China has stopped incrementally raising interest rates was a positive to the emerging markets while US equities had to absorb some negative misses including Netflix, Amazon and 3M. Showing a bipolar tendency, retail sales are good but consumer confidence is negative.
Like the rest of the world, we will be sitting in our dinghy in the middle of the sea trying to estimate from which direction the storm will roll in.
There will be economic releases in the form of durable goods (came in at - 0.8% but the minutia weren’t quite so negative) and home sales and also we get the inventory numbers for crude oil. Oil has consolidated its recent gains. Seasonality is also at play here with spreads between heating oil and gasoline.
Week of October 24 - October 28
|Oct||10:00||FHFA Housing Price||Aug||NA||NA||0.8%|
|Oct||07:00||MBA Mortgage Index||10/22||NA||NA||-14.9%|
|Oct||08:30||Durable Orders -ex||Sep||-0.1%||0.4%||0.0%||-0.1%|
|Oct||10:00||New Home Sales||Sep||290K||300K||295K|
|Oct||10:00||Pending Home Sales||Aug||0.0%||-1.0%||-1.2%|
|Oct||08:30||PCE Prices - Core||Sep||0.1%||0.1%||0.1%|
|Oct||09:55||Michigan Sentiment -||Oct||57.0||57.5||57.5|
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
|Daily Support and Resistance|
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.