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European debt crisis leaves market in limbo

Top Day Recommendations

10.26.11

In many respects, the market continues to be held hostage in the fog of the European debt crisis. The summit meeting is now underway. Of course yesterdays headlines that the European finance ministers had canceled their meeting sent waves through the trading session but the effect dissipated when it became realized that the summit was still on. Yesterday we did see gold and the dollar become simultaneously strong which was a flight to safety further underscored by a move higher in the bond market. Where does this leave us? Welcome to limbo.

Signals to the market that China has stopped incrementally raising interest rates was a positive to the emerging markets while US equities had to absorb some negative misses including Netflix, Amazon and 3M. Showing a bipolar tendency, retail sales are good but consumer confidence is negative.

Like the rest of the world, we will be sitting in our dinghy in the middle of the sea trying to estimate from which direction the storm will roll in.

There will be economic releases in the form of durable goods (came in at - 0.8% but the minutia weren’t quite so negative) and home sales and also we get the inventory numbers for crude oil. Oil has consolidated its recent gains. Seasonality is also at play here with spreads between heating oil and gasoline.

Week of October 24 - October 28

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Oct 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Aug   -4.0% -3.5% -4.11%  
25 Index    
             
Oct 10:00 Consumer Confidence Oct   46.0 46.0 45.4  
25    
               
Oct 10:00 FHFA Housing Price Aug   NA NA 0.8%  
25 Index    
             
Oct 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 10/22   NA NA -14.9%  
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
26                
Oct 08:30 Durable Orders Sep   -1.5% -1.0% -0.1%  
26    
               
Oct 08:30 Durable Orders -ex Sep   -0.1% 0.4% 0.0% -0.1%
26 Transportation  
             
Oct 10:00 New Home Sales Sep   290K 300K 295K  
26    
               
Oct 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/22   NA NA -  
26   4.729M  
             
Oct 08:30 Initial Claims 10/22   400K 403K 403K  
27    
               
Oct 08:30 Continuing Claims 10/15   3700K 3700K 3719K  
27    
               
Oct 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q3   2.0% 2.2% 1.3%  
27    
               
Oct 08:30 GDP Deflator Q3   2.2% 2.5% 2.5%  
27    
               
Oct 10:00 Pending Home Sales Aug   0.0% -1.0% -1.2%  
27    
               
Oct 08:30 Personal Income Sep   0.4% 0.3% -0.1%  
28    
               
Oct 08:30 Personal Spending Sep   0.8% 0.6% 0.2%  
28    
               
Oct 08:30 PCE Prices - Core Sep   0.1% 0.1% 0.1%  
28    
               
Oct 08:30 Employment Cost Q3   0.6% 0.6% 0.7%  
28 Index    
             
Oct 09:55 Michigan Sentiment - Oct   57.0 57.5 57.5  
28 Final    
             

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance  
Trend WS2 W S1 DS DR

WR1 WR2

Dec Emini U 1168.5 1201.90 1213 1245 1252.25 1269.00
           
S+P   0          
             
Dec Emini U 2210.0 2272.00 2296 2367 2392 2450
0          
Naz            
             
Dec Yen U 128 129.75 131.26 132.25 132.70 133.90
           
               
Dec EC U 135.43 137.01 138.56 139.68 139.61 140.63
           
Dec 10 U 126.28 127.24 128.19 129.19 129.13 130.05
           
Year              
Dec 30 D 135.12 136.30 138.09 141.03 140.17 142.18
           
Year              
               
Nov D 11.58 11.85 12.16 12.35 12.55 12.99
           
Soybeans              
Dec Corn U 6.13 6.31 6.45 6.57 6.66 6.3
           
Dec Gold U 1556 1599 1658 1725 1691 1740
           
Dec Silver U 2858 2997 31.80 33.83 3271 3406
           
Dec U 281.50 303.30 334 352 346.50 368.00
           
Copper              
Dec U 81.67 84.60 9129 94.84 90.07 92.61
           
Crude              

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.