10.27.2014
Top Day Market News
Lots of event risk this upcoming week. The market will first absorb the already released ECB bank stress tests on Sunday night, It’s been widely disseminated that 25 banks failed the test and 11 others are borderline. Then on Monday we get the ECB asset purchase plan. Previously this was a catalyst for an equity market rally. US consumer confidence comes in on Tuesday. The biggest event occurs Wednesday with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, its rate decision and communique. At this point in the cycle, the Fed and its response is highly calibrated to stock market performance.
Whenever the market cracks, the Fed turns dovish while the more it rallies it sees less reason to be accommodative. The speed line of the recovery after the 9% correction is too steep so the lows should be eventually revisited.
|
Week |
of |
October 27 - October 31 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Oct 27 |
10:00 |
Pending Home Sales |
Sep |
|
1.0% |
0.5% |
-1.0% |
|
|
Oct 28 |
08:30 |
Durable Orders |
Sep |
|
0.5% |
0.7% |
-18.4% |
-18.2% |
|
Oct 28 |
08:30 |
Durable Goods –ex transportation |
Sep |
|
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
Oct 28 |
09:00 |
Case-Shiller 20-city Index |
Aug |
|
5.5% |
5.5% |
6.7% |
|
|
Oct 28 |
10:00 |
Consumer Confidence |
Oct |
|
87.0 |
87.2 |
86.0 |
|
|
Oct 29 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
10/25 |
|
NA |
NA |
NA |
|
|
Oct 29 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
10/25 |
|
NA |
NA |
7.111M |
|
|
Oct 29 |
14:00 |
FOMC Rate Decision |
Oct |
|
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
|
Oct 30 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
10/25 |
|
295K |
284K |
283K |
|
|
Oct 30 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
10/18 |
|
2375K |
2375K |
2351K |
|
|
Oct 30 |
08:30 |
GDP-Adv. |
Q3 |
|
2.3% |
3.0% |
4.6% |
|
|
Oct 30 |
08:30 |
Chain Deflator-Adv. |
Q3 |
|
2.0% |
1.5% |
2.1% |
|
|
Oct 30 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
10/25 |
|
NA |
NA |
94 bcf |
|
|
Oct 31 |
08:30 |
Personal Income |
Sep |
|
0.4% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
Oct 31 |
08:30 |
Personal Spending |
Sep |
|
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
|
Oct 31 |
08:30 |
PCE Prices - Core |
Sep |
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
Oct 31 |
08:30 |
Employment Cost Index |
Q3 |
|
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
|
Oct 31 |
09:45 |
Chicago PMI |
Oct |
|
58.0 |
60.0 |
60.5 |
|
|
Oct 31 |
09:55 |
Michigan Sentiment - Final |
Oct |
|
85.5 |
86.4 |
86.4 |
|
Numbers below are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Support and Resistance Grid
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Dec ES |
U |
1842 |
1901 |
1940 |
1970 |
1990 |
2020 |
|
Dec Nasdaq |
U |
3711 |
3874 |
3990 |
4058 |
4119 |
4201 |
|
Dec Yen |
D |
91.16 |
91.82 |
92.35 |
92.79 |
93.65 |
94.52 |
|
Dec EC |
U |
124.84 |
125.79 |
126.37 |
127.30 |
128.07 |
129.40 |
|
Dec 10 Year Note |
D |
125.29 |
126.15 |
126.22 |
127.10 |
127.29 |
128.26 |
|
Dec 30 Year Bond |
D |
139.23 |
140.25 |
141.02 |
142.09 |
143.11 |
144.27 |
|
Nov Soybeans |
U |
9.05 |
9.41 |
9.59 |
9.84 |
10.07 |
10.37 |
|
Dec Corn |
U |
3.30 |
3.41 |
3.44 |
3.56 |
3.64 |
3.76 |
|
Dec Gold |
D |
1208.40 |
1219.80 |
1225.70 |
1234 |
1249.1 |
1267.00 |
|
Dec Silver |
D |
16.67 |
16.83 |
17.00 |
17.31 |
17.55 |
17.74 |
|
Dec Copper |
U |
293 |
298.50 |
301.30 |
305.50 |
307.70 |
311.40 |
|
Dec Crude |
D |
78.32 |
79.81 |
79.61 |
82.04 |
83.06 |
84.74 |
|
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