Top Day Recommendations
10.31.11
Intervention overnight by the BOJ sent a shiver through the FX world and dollar strengthened on this. EU inflation and unemployment both higher than expected and this took the dollar higher against the EC. Meanwhile, millions still without power on the East Coast and temperatures are well below seasonal levels.
The only data point of the day is Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45.
Stock market is holding out hope for good performance today so that it can claim its best monthly performance since 1974.
Volatility is expected to continue with a 2 day Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the unemployment report at week’s end. This should supply something for everyone.
Week of October 31 - November 04
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Oct | 09:45 | Chicago PMI | Oct | 60.0 | 58.9 | 60.4 | ||
| 31 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | ISM Index | Oct | 53.0 | 52.1 | 51.6 | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Construction | Sep | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.4% | ||
| 01 | Spending | |||||||
| Nov | 15:00 | Auto Sales | Nov | NA | NA | 4.07M | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Nov | 15:00 | Truck Sales | Nov | NA | NA | 5.97M | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Nov | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 10/29 | NA | NA | 4.9% | ||
| 02 | ||||||||
| Nov | 07:30 | Challenger Job Cuts | Oct | NA | NA | - | ||
| 02 | 211.5% | |||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Nov | 08:15 | ADP Employment | Oct | 130K | 100K | 91K | ||
| 02 | Change | |||||||
| Nov | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 10/29 | NA | NA | 4.735M | ||
| 02 | ||||||||
| Nov | 12:30 | FOMC Rate Decision | Nov | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | ||
| 02 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 10/29 | 400K | 402K | 402K | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 10/22 | 3700K | 3675K | 3645K | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Productivity-Prel | Q3 | 2.8% | 2.8% | -0.7% | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Unit Labor Costs -Prel | Q3 | -1.0% | -1.1% | 3.3% | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Factory Orders | Sep | -0.5% | -0.2% | -0.2% | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | ISM Services | Oct | 53.0 | 53.7 | 53.0 | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Nonfarm Payrolls | Oct | 100K | 88K | 103K | ||
| 04 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Nonfarm Private | Oct | 130K | 114K | 137K | ||
| 04 | Payrolls | |||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Unemployment Rate | Oct | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | ||
| 04 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Hourly Earnings | Oct | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||
| 04 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Average Workweek | Oct | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.3 | ||
| 04 | ||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
| Daily Support and Resistance | ||||
| Trend | WS2 | W S1 | DS | DR |
WR1 WR2
| Dec Emini | U | 1189.5 | 1235.25 | 1267 | 1285 | 1308.00 | 1335.00 |
| S+P | 0 | ||||||
| Dec Emini | U | 2242.0 | 2319.25 | 2369 | 2406 | 2441.25 | 2486.00 |
| 0 | |||||||
| Naz | |||||||
| Dec Yen | U | 130.30 | 131.20 | 131.43 | 132 | 132.63 | 133.45 |
| Dec EC | U | 136.11 | 138.79 | 140.87 | 141.86 | 143.28 | 145.09 |
| Dec 10 | U | 126.27 | 127.15 | 127.27 | 128.27 | 128.15 | 128.27 |
| Year | |||||||
| Dec 30 | D | 134.15 | 135.22 | 135.22 | 138.07 | 137.26 | 138.07 |
| Year | |||||||
| Nov | D | 11.98 | 12.07 | 11.98 | 12.34 | 12.24 | 12.51 |
| Soybeans | |||||||
| Dec Corn | U | 6.40 | 6.47 | 6.40 | 6.59 | 6.59 | 6.64 |
| Dec Gold | U | 1691.3 | 1735.40 | 1723.7 | 1756 | 1758.40 | 1765.70 |
| 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Dec Silver | U | 32.24 | 34.76 | 34.25 | 35.75 | 35.75 | 36.21 |
| Dec | U | 355 | 363 | 355.60 | 376.55 | 377 | 382 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Dec | U | 91.16 | 92.24 | 92.24 | 94.16 | 94.15 | 95.00 |
| Crude |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
*******************************************
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.