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Greece bailout in the works

Top Day Recommendations

11.01.11

Prosecutors have an adage; never ask a question you don’t know the answer to. The Greek Prime Minister Papandreou has, in his wisdom, decided to call a referendum on the five day old bailout package that had been cobbled together to save Greece. Of course no one knows how this referendum will turn out but there are two possibilities and one of them is really bad. This decision has caught France and Germany like a left hook they never saw coming. Because of this new introduction of an unknown, the EC is now at a three-week low against the dollar. If the Greek people do not back the Astarte measures and the Papandreou government this could trigger a default. Yesterday, the liquidation only measures imposed by the exchanges on MF global were in themselves enough to put a cap, temporarily, on the October run. Now the market awaits some clarity about this new issue before it will be deemed safe to add risk.

Week of October 31 - November 04

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Oct 09:45 Chicago PMI Oct   60.0 58.9 60.4  
31    
               
Nov 10:00 ISM Index Oct   53.0 52.1 51.6  
01    
               
Nov 10:00 Construction Sep   0.8% 0.3% 1.4%  
01 Spending    
             
Nov 15:00 Auto Sales Nov   NA NA 4.07M  
01    
               
Nov 15:00 Truck Sales Nov   NA NA 5.97M  
01    
               
Nov 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 10/29   NA NA 4.9%  
02    
               
Nov 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts Oct   NA NA -  
02   211.5%  
             
Nov 08:15 ADP Employment Oct   130K 100K 91K  
02 Change    
             
Nov 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/29   NA NA 4.735M  
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
02                
Nov 12:30 FOMC Rate Decision Nov   0.25% 0.25% 0.25%  
02    
               
Nov 08:30 Initial Claims 10/29   400K 402K 402K  
03    
               
Nov 08:30 Continuing Claims 10/22   3700K 3675K 3645K  
03    
               
Nov 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q3   2.8% 2.8% -0.7%  
03    
               
Nov 08:30 Unit Labor Costs -Prel Q3   -1.0% -1.1% 3.3%  
03    
               
Nov 10:00 Factory Orders Sep   -0.5% -0.2% -0.2%  
03    
               
Nov 10:00 ISM Services Oct   53.0 53.7 53.0  
03    
               
Nov 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Oct   100K 88K 103K  
04    
               
Nov 08:30 Nonfarm Private Oct   130K 114K 137K  
04 Payrolls    
             
Nov 08:30 Unemployment Rate Oct   9.2% 9.1% 9.1%  
04    
               
Nov 08:30 Hourly Earnings Oct   0.2% 0.2% 0.2%  
04    
               
Nov 08:30 Average Workweek Oct   34.3 34.3 34.3  
04    
               

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance  
Trend WS2 W S1 DS DR

WR1 WR2

Dec Emini PRD 1189.5 1235.25 1223 1258 1308.00 1335.00
0          
S+P (D)          
           
Dec Emini U 2242.0 2319.25 2320 2383 2441.25 2486.00
0          
Naz            
             
Dec Yen U 130.30 131.20 125.14 131.96 132.63 133.45
           
               
Dec EC PRD 136.11 138.79 136.25 141.16 143.28 145.09
           
  (D)            
Dec 10 U 126.27 127.15 128.05 130.14 128.15 128.27
           
Year              
Dec 30 PRD 134.15 135.22 137.02 141.31 137.26 138.07
           
Year (U)            
               
Nov D 11.98 12.07 11.81 12.19 12.24 12.51
           
Soybeans              
Dec Corn U 6.40 6.47 6.29 6.55 6.59 6.64
           
Dec Gold U 1691.3 1735.40 1685 1745 1758.40 1765.70
           
    0          
Dec Silver U 32.24 34.76 33.26 35.17 35.75 36.21
           
Dec U 355 363 347 372 377 382
           
Copper              
Dec PRD 91.16 92.24 90.34 94.20 94.15 95.00
           
Crude (D)            

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.