Top Day Recommendations
11.02.11
It’s the second day of the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting and the communiqué will be released at 1230. There will also be a following press conference with the Fed Chairman.
After the dollar strengthened yesterday in the wake of the surprise announcement by Greek Prime Minister Papandreou that he would submit the euro zone bailout package for Greece to a referendum, the dollar was weaker this morning with the idea that the Fed will leave short-term rates unchanged and that the chairman will characterize the economy is continuing to be soft with areas of modest growth. The important thing is that he will not dispel the notion of a possible QE3. If this were to happen would probably be in Q1. Because of this markets are inflating in front of his expected dovish comments.
The EFSF has postponed a bond sale for reasons that remain unclear. Also it seems that Merkel and Sarkozy are anxious to pressure Papandreou into making his end of the deal work.
ADP private jobs forecast out at 8:15. It came in at +110 with a prior month downward revision.
Gold has been a curious trade lately. It’s as if it doesn’t know it wants to be. It’s as if it’s at a Halloween costume party with three different costumes. First it’s depressed because it’s an MF global victim of long liquidation only pressures, then it’s a dollar proxy, then it’s the stock market proxy, then it’s…
Volatility remains exhausting.
Week of October 31 - November 04
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Oct | 09:45 | Chicago PMI | Oct | 60.0 | 58.9 | 60.4 | ||
| 31 | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | ISM Index | Oct | 53.0 | 52.1 | 51.6 | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Construction | Sep | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.4% | ||
| 01 | Spending | |||||||
| Nov | 15:00 | Auto Sales | Nov | NA | NA | 4.07M | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Nov | 15:00 | Truck Sales | Nov | NA | NA | 5.97M | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Nov | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 10/29 | NA | NA | 4.9% | ||
| 02 | ||||||||
| Nov | 07:30 | Challenger Job Cuts | Oct | NA | NA | - | ||
| 02 | 211.5% | |||||||
| Nov | 08:15 | ADP Employment | Oct | 130K | 100K | 91K | ||
| 02 | Change | |||||||
| Nov | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 10/29 | NA | NA | 4.735M | ||
| 02 | ||||||||
| Nov | 12:30 | FOMC Rate Decision | Nov | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | ||
| 02 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 10/29 | 400K | 402K | 402K | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 10/22 | 3700K | 3675K | 3645K | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Productivity-Prel | Q3 | 2.8% | 2.8% | -0.7% | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Unit Labor Costs -Prel | Q3 | -1.0% | -1.1% | 3.3% | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Factory Orders | Sep | -0.5% | -0.2% | -0.2% | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | ISM Services | Oct | 53.0 | 53.7 | 53.0 | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Nonfarm Payrolls | Oct | 100K | 88K | 103K | ||
| 04 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Nonfarm Private | Oct | 130K | 114K | 137K | ||
| 04 | Payrolls | |||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Unemployment Rate | Oct | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | ||
| 04 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Hourly Earnings | Oct | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||
| 04 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Average Workweek | Oct | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.3 | ||
| 04 | ||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
| Daily Support and Resistance | ||||
| Trend | WS2 | W S1 | DS | DR |
WR1 WR2
| Dec Emini | D | 1189.5 | 1235.25 | 1206.0 | 1245.50 | 1308.00 | 1335.00 |
| 0 | 0 | ||||||
| S+P | |||||||
| Dec Emini | PRD | 2242.0 | 2319.25 | 2272 | 2345 | 2441.25 | 2486.00 |
| Naz | (D) | 0 | |||||
| Dec Yen | PRD | 130.30 | 131.20 | 126.89 | 128.54 | 132.63 | 133.45 |
| (D) | |||||||
| Dec EC | D | 136.11 | 138.79 | 135.85 | 138.47 | 143.28 | 145.09 |
| Dec 10 | U | 126.27 | 127.15 | 129.15 | 130.25 | 128.15 | 128.27 |
| Year | |||||||
| Dec 30 | U | 134.15 | 135.22 | 139.31 | 143.13 | 137.26 | 138.07 |
| Year | |||||||
| Nov | D | 11.98 | 12.07 | 11.77 | 12.09 | 12.24 | 12.51 |
| Soybeans | |||||||
| Dec Corn | U | 6.40 | 6.47 | 6.37 | 6.65 | 6.59 | 6.64 |
| Dec Gold | PRD | 1691.3 | 1735.40 | 1686 | 1750 | 1758.40 | 1765.70 |
| 0 | |||||||
| (D) | |||||||
| Dec Silver | PRD | 32.24 | 34.76 | 31.65 | 34.26 | 35.75 | 36.21 |
| (D) | |||||||
| Dec | PRD | 355 | 363 | 342 | 362 | 377 | 382 |
| Copper | (D) | ||||||
| Dec | D | 91.16 | 92.24 | 89.94 | 95.12 | 94.15 | 95.00 |
| Crude |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.