Top Day Recommendations
11.04.11
Welcome to jobless Friday. The most important number of the month is the US unemployment number. The anticipated number is for the economy to have added 100,000 jobs. The ADP number, a private jobs forecast, came in slightly stronger on Wednesday but the correlation between the two is sketchy at best. The markets have tanked a bit just now on news out of Europe through Angela Merkel that the G- 20 which is meeting in Cannes (a great place to watch movies and fall in love with the wrong person) has failed to come to agreement regarding IMF resources to fund the European bail out package. This could be a significant development and a negative one at that.
With this new news and the fact this is unemployment Friday and it’s the weekend, the suggestion is to get out of the way, trade retracements of developing trends in the wake of the data and be flat over the weekend given European fluidity.
Stay optimistic and have a good weekend.
Week of October 31 - November 04
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Oct | 09:45 | Chicago PMI | Oct | 60.0 | 58.9 | 60.4 | ||
| 31 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | ISM Index | Oct | 53.0 | 52.1 | 51.6 | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Construction | Sep | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.4% | ||
| 01 | Spending | |||||||
| Nov | 15:00 | Auto Sales | Nov | NA | NA | 4.07M | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Nov | 15:00 | Truck Sales | Nov | NA | NA | 5.97M | ||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Nov | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 10/29 | NA | NA | 4.9% | ||
| 02 | ||||||||
| Nov | 07:30 | Challenger Job Cuts | Oct | NA | NA | - | ||
| 02 | 211.5% | |||||||
| Nov | 08:15 | ADP Employment | Oct | 130K | 100K | 91K | ||
| 02 | Change | |||||||
| Nov | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 10/29 | NA | NA | 4.735M | ||
| 02 | ||||||||
| Nov | 12:30 | FOMC Rate Decision | Nov | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | ||
| 02 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 10/29 | 400K | 402K | 402K | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 10/22 | 3700K | 3675K | 3645K | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Productivity-Prel | Q3 | 2.8% | 2.8% | -0.7% | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Unit Labor Costs -Prel | Q3 | -1.0% | -1.1% | 3.3% | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Factory Orders | Sep | -0.5% | -0.2% | -0.2% | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | ISM Services | Oct | 53.0 | 53.7 | 53.0 | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Nonfarm Payrolls | Oct | 100K | 88K | 103K | ||
| 04 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Nonfarm Private | Oct | 130K | 114K | 137K | ||
| 04 | Payrolls | |||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Unemployment Rate | Oct | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | ||
| 04 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Hourly Earnings | Oct | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||
| 04 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Average Workweek | Oct | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.3 | ||
| 04 | ||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR |
WR1 WR2
| Dec Emini | PRD | 1189.5 | 1235.25 | 1226.2 | 1272.50 | 1308.00 | 1335.00 |
| 0 | 5 | ||||||
| S+P | (U) | ||||||
| Dec Emini | U | 2242.0 | 2319.25 | 2304.5 | 2392.00 | 2441.25 | 2486.00 |
| 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Naz | |||||||
| Dec Yen | U | 130.30 | 131.20 | 127.99 | 128.44 | 132.63 | 133.45 |
| Dec EC | PRD | 136.11 | 138.79 | 137.03 | 139.05 | 143.28 | 145.09 |
| (U) | |||||||
| Dec 10 | U | 126.27 | 127.15 | 129.19 | 130.22 | 128.15 | 128.27 |
| Year |
| Dec 30 | U | 134.15 | 135.22 | 139.24 | 142.12 | 137.26 | 138.07 |
| Year | |||||||
| Jan | PRD | 11.98 | 12.07 | 12.08 | 12.38 | 12.24 | 12.51 |
| Soybeans | (U) | ||||||
| Dec Corn | U | 6.40 | 6.47 | 6.43 | 6.61 | 6.59 | 6.64 |
| Dec Gold | U | 1691.3 | 1735.40 | 1736 | 1781 | 1758.40 | 1765.70 |
| 0 | |||||||
| Dec Silver | U | 32.24 | 34.76 | 33.54 | 35.17 | 35.75 | 36.21 |
| Dec | U | 355 | 363 | 351 | 364 | 377 | 382 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Dec | PRD | 91.16 | 92.24 | 91.75 | 95.49 | 94.15 | 95.00 |
| Crude | (U) |
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.