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Market trades from headline to headline

Top Day Recommendations

11.07.11

The Greek government goes into reorganization over the weekend throwing speculation now on Italy and Berlusconi’s tenure. The decline in European stocks this morning is being pinned to concern over Italy’s sovereign debt situation. Should Berlusconi either resign or lose a vote of confidence it would be viewed as a positive. His majority is falling apart in front of a parliamentary vote tomorrow on budget. Meanwhile back in Greece, Papandreou has agreed to step down to allow a new national unity government to be formed to help secure new international financing with the idea of saving the economy from collapse.

There are no economic data points today. And volatility is going to continue anyway. The market continues to trade from headline to headline. Again, the only way to deal with this is to reduce the size of your position and tighten stops.

Week of November 07 - November 11

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Nov 15:00 Consumer Credit Sep   $5.0B $5.0B -$9.5B  
07    
               
Nov 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 11/05   NA NA +0.2%  
09    
               
Nov 10:00 Wholesale Sep   0.9% 0.6% 0.4%  
09 Inventories    
             
Nov 10:30 Crude Inventories 11/05   NA NA 1.826M  
09    
               
Nov 08:30 Initial Claims 11/05   400K 400K 397K  
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
10                
Nov 08:30 Continuing Claims 10/29   3700K 3690K 3683K  
10    
               
Nov 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Oct   NA NA 0.3%  
10    
               
Nov 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Oct   NA NA 0.2%  
10    
               
Nov 08:30 Trade Balance Sep   -$46.0B -$45.8B -$45.6B  
10    
               
Nov 14:00 Treasury Budget Oct   NA -$105B -  
10   $140.4B  
             
Nov 09:55 Mich Sentiment Nov   60.0 61.5 60.9  
11    
               

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

    Daily Support and Resistance  
               
  Trend WS2 WS1 DS DR WR1 WR2
Dec ES D 1174.50 1212.75 1224 1261 1285.00 1319.00
           
Dec U 2223.50 2287.50 2301 2368 2406.50 2461.50
           
Nasdaq              
Dec U 122.00 125.01 127.79 128.29 131.50 135.60
           
Yen              
Dec EC D 132.85 135.30 136.15 138.65 140.90 144.00
           
Dec 10 U 126.24 128.16 129.24 130.19 131.14 132.20
           
Year              
               
Dec 30 U 133.21 137.11 139.30 141.25 143.29 146.25
           
Year              
Jan D 11.72 11.96 12.11 12.28 12.38 12.55
           
Soybea              
ns              
Dec U 6.20 6.38 6.47 6.60 6.66 6.77
           
Corn              
Dec U 1647 1701 1748 1774 1777 1823
           
Gold              
Dec U 30.55 32.35 33.36 34.61 35.69 37.24
           
Silver              
Dec U 331 347 348 363 371 387
           
Copper              
Dec U 87.08 90.75 91.96 95.17 96.51 98.60
           
Crude              

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.