Top Day Recommendations
11.08.11
Usually, markets don’t like uncertainty. This morning, faced with the uncertainty over budget vote in Italy and the ramifications for the political life of Berlusconi and while waiting for the name of the new Greek Prime Minister, equity markets are buoyant. The belief is that Europe is avoiding potential recession. That remains to be seen, obviously. Yields in the United States are backing up. Crude oil remains strong, overall, although overbought. Gold rallied strongly yesterday as the alternative currency. It curiously slammed on the brakes just below $1800 an ounce and failed to breach that level overnight.
Today is yet again an open day in terms of economic releases. Stocks will continue to be bought on breaks. With all the turmoil, the EC persists in its resilience. Perception is reality. Price is truth.
Week of November 07 - November 11
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Nov | 15:00 | Consumer Credit | Sep | $5.0B | $5.0B | -$9.5B | ||
| 07 | ||||||||
| Nov | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 11/05 | NA | NA | +0.2% | ||
| 09 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Wholesale | Sep | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | ||
| 09 | Inventories | |||||||
| Nov | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 11/05 | NA | NA | 1.826M | ||
| 09 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 11/05 | 400K | 400K | 397K | ||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| 10 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 10/29 | 3700K | 3690K | 3683K | ||
| 10 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Export Prices ex-ag. | Oct | NA | NA | 0.3% | ||
| 10 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Import Prices ex-oil | Oct | NA | NA | 0.2% | ||
| 10 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Trade Balance | Sep | -$46.0B | -$45.8B | -$45.6B | ||
| 10 | ||||||||
| Nov | 14:00 | Treasury Budget | Oct | NA | -$105B | - | ||
| 10 | $140.4B | |||||||
| Nov | 09:55 | Mich Sentiment | Nov | 60.0 | 61.5 | 60.9 | ||
| 11 | ||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Dec ES | D | 1174.50 | 1212.75 | 1240 | 1267 | 1285.00 | 1319.00 |
| Dec | U | 2223.50 | 2287.50 | 2335 | 2405 | 2406.50 | 2461.50 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Dec | U | 122.00 | 125.01 | 128 | 128.51 | 131.50 | 135.60 |
| Yen | |||||||
| Dec EC | D | 132.85 | 135.30 | 137 | 138.34 | 140.90 | 144.00 |
| Dec 10 | U | 126.24 | 128.16 | 129.19 | 130.29 | 131.14 | 132.20 |
| Year | |||||||
| Dec 30 | U | 133.21 | 137.11 | 140.20 | 142.29 | 143.29 | 146.25 |
| Year | |||||||
| Jan | D | 11.72 | 11.96 | 11.92 | 12.17 | 12.38 | 12.55 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| Dec | U | 6.20 | 6.38 | 6.48 | 6.57 | 6.66 | 6.77 |
| Corn | |||||||
| Dec | U | 1647 | 1701 | 1763 | 1809 | 1777 | 1823 |
| Gold | |||||||
| Dec | U | 30.55 | 32.35 | 34.11 | 35.27 | 35.69 | 37.24 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Dec | U | 331 | 347 | 363 | 376 | 371 | 387 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Dec | U | 87.08 | 90.75 | 93.79 | 96.67 | 96.51 | 98.60 |
| Crude | |||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.