11.08.2013
Top Day Market News
The big, dreaded unemployment day is upon us. Something wicked this way comes and it’s the attendant volatility that’s triggered by the jobs number. The consensus number is for an add of just 85 thousand to payrolls. Whisper number is 100K. Also, U of Michigan consumer sentiment at 9:55.
Yesterday’s first estimate of GDP was higher than expected but wasn’t as strong at first blanche as the better number was triggered by an increase in inventories. A reduction is income and spending and an increase in inventories is a negative economic combination.
Although the structure of the market yesterday at 7:45 suggested that there was only a 4% chance that the ECB would cut rates, they, of course, did lower the cost of short term money. As mentioned in yesterday’s report, the ECB had room and motive to lower rates and with unemployment running at 12% and the strong EC hurting exports, cut they did. It was a minimal shock to the system as the EC fell precipitously and the Yen soared on crosses as the US stock market legged lower. Also, as mentioned yesterday, the fact that the Nasdaq wasn’t keeping pace with the S+P was a sign that a selloff should be expected. Some substantial things happened in the market yesterday, actually noteworthy, but the Twitter IPO served as a distraction to the bigger story.
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Week of November 04 - November 08 |
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Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
|
Nov 04 |
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
Aug |
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
-2.4% |
|
|
|
Nov 04 |
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
Sep |
|
1.5% |
1.8% |
NA |
|
|
|
Nov 05 |
10:00 |
ISM Services |
Oct |
|
55.0 |
54.0 |
54.4 |
|
|
|
Nov 06 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
11/02 |
|
NA |
NA |
6.4% |
|
|
|
Nov 06 |
10:00 |
Leading Indicators |
Sep |
|
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
|
|
Nov 06 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
11/02 |
|
NA |
NA |
4.087 |
|
|
|
Nov 07 |
07:30 |
Challenger Job Cuts |
Oct |
|
NA |
NA |
19.1% |
|
|
|
Nov 07 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
11/02 |
|
335K |
335K |
340K |
|
|
|
Nov 07 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
10/26 |
|
2875K |
2863K |
2881K |
|
|
|
Nov 07 |
08:30 |
GDP-Adv. |
Q3 |
|
2.4% |
1.9% |
2.5% |
|
|
|
Nov 07 |
08:30 |
Chain Deflator-Adv. |
Q3 |
|
2.0% |
1.4% |
0.6% |
|
|
|
Nov 07 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
11/02 |
|
NA |
NA |
38 bcf |
|
|
|
Nov 07 |
15:00 |
Consumer Credit |
Sep |
|
$13.0B |
$11.0B |
$13.6B |
|
|
|
Nov 08 |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
Oct |
|
85K |
100K |
148K |
|
|
|
Nov 08 |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Private Payrolls |
Oct |
|
110K |
110K |
126K |
|
|
|
Nov 08 |
08:30 |
Unemployment Rate |
Oct |
|
7.4% |
7.3% |
7.2% |
|
|
|
Nov 08 |
08:30 |
Hourly Earnings |
Oct |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
Nov 08 |
08:30 |
Average Workweek |
Oct |
|
34.5 |
34.4 |
34.5 |
|
|
|
Nov 08 |
08:30 |
Personal Income |
Sep |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
Nov 08 |
08:30 |
Personal Spending |
Sep |
|
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
Nov 08 |
08:30 |
PCE Prices - Core |
Sep |
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
Nov 08 |
09:55 |
Mich Sentiment |
Nov |
|
75.0 |
75.3 |
73.2 |
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MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Dec ES |
D |
1732 |
1743 |
1733.50 |
1765.75 |
1769 |
1784 |
|
Dec Nasdaq |
PRD(D) |
3331 |
3350 |
3293.50 |
3366.00 |
3394 |
3420 |
|
Dec Yen |
PRD(U) |
100.22 |
100.74 |
101.03 |
102.89 |
102.21 |
103.16 |
|
Dec EC |
D |
132.50 |
133.75 |
133.04 |
135.47 |
167.07 |
139.36 |
|
DEC 10 Year |
PRD(U) |
125.25 |
126.09 |
126.27 |
127.13 |
127.21 |
128.17 |
|
Dec 30 Year |
PRD(U) |
132.09 |
133.00 |
133.02 |
134.03 |
135.03 |
136.05 |
|
Jan Soybeans |
U |
12.21 |
12.31 |
12.53 |
12.71 |
12.80 |
13.09 |
|
Dec Corn |
D |
4.16 |
4.24 |
4.18 |
4.23 |
4.36 |
4.45 |
|
DEC Gold |
D |
1271 |
1303 |
1294.30 |
1324.00 |
1349 |
1383 |
|
Dec Silver |
D |
20.82 |
21.34 |
21.34 |
21.98 |
22.73 |
23.60 |
|
Dec Copper |
D |
320.50 |
325 |
323 |
327 |
333 |
357 |
|
Dec Crude |
D |
92.16 |
93.03 |
93.56 |
95.17 |
97.49 |
100.38 |
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