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Italian bond market now in spotlight

Top Day Recommendations

11.09.11

There’s an old adage which doesn’t exist which should exist: equity markets make people happy or sad while bond markets can change fiscal policy and governments. Now that Greece has given up the spotlight, the Italian bond market is now blinded by the light. Italian bond yields have almost doubled overnight in the wake of the Berlusconi resignation, non resignation, resignation. The market is having a hard time seeing a new Italian leadership hammering through austerity measures. Because of that, fears of a European recession have resurfaced and this whirlpool of fear is dragging down equities worldwide while strengthening the dollar and punishing the oil market.

It’s easy to say that both crude oil and equities had gotten ahead of themselves over the past three weeks. The ascent line or speed line on the charts was a little too steep and a crack back correction should not be that much of a surprise.

We’re still in this theater of time where one-day it’s throwing caution to the winds while the next day is spent in bed nursing a hangover. This bipolar environment will continue into Q1.

Week of November 07 - November 11

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Nov 15:00 Consumer Credit Sep   $5.0B $5.0B -$9.5B  
07    
               
Nov 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 11/05   NA NA +0.2%  
09    
               
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Nov 10:00 Wholesale Sep   0.9% 0.6% 0.4%  
09 Inventories    
             
Nov 10:30 Crude Inventories 11/05   NA NA 1.826M  
09    
               
Nov 08:30 Initial Claims 11/05   400K 400K 397K  
10    
               
Nov 08:30 Continuing Claims 10/29   3700K 3690K 3683K  
10    
               
Nov 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Oct   NA NA 0.3%  
10    
               
Nov 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Oct   NA NA 0.2%  
10    
               
Nov 08:30 Trade Balance Sep   -$46.0B -$45.8B -$45.6B  
10    
               
Nov 14:00 Treasury Budget Oct   NA -$105B -  
10   $140.4B  
             
Nov 09:55 Mich Sentiment Nov   60.0 61.5 60.9  
11    
               

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance        
Levels are for the most active futures contract    
    Daily Support and Resistance  
               
  Trend WS2 WS1 DS DR WR1 WR2
Dec ES PRD 1174.50 1212.75 1239 1282 1285.00 1319.00
           
  (U)            
Dec U 2223.50 2287.50 2338 2410 2406.50 2461.50
           
Nasdaq              
Dec U 122.00 125.01 128.28 129.12 131.50 135.60
           
Yen              
Dec EC D 132.85 135.30 136.78 138.83 140.90 144.00
           
Dec 10 U 126.24 128.16 129.23 130.28 131.14 132.20
           
Year              
               
Dec 30 U 133.21 137.11 140.03 142.18 143.29 146.25
           
Year              
Jan D 11.72 11.96 11.89 12.14 12.38 12.55
           
Soybea              
ns              
Dec U 6.20 6.38 6.53 6.65 6.66 6.77
           
Corn              
Dec U 1647 1701 1767 1809 1777 1823
           
Gold              
Dec U 30.55 32.35 34.15 35.50 35.69 37.24
           
Silver              
Dec D 331 347 346 358 371 387
           
Copper              
Dec U 87.08 90.75 94.52 97.51 96.51 98.60
           
Crude              

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

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