Top Day Recommendations
11.11.11
The above date only occurs once a century, so enjoy it. It is also Armistice Day, the day of remembrance for the end of hostilities on the Western front of World War I. It’s a government holiday and consequently the government bond market is closed. Italy approves its budget deal now paving the way for the probable (as having been previously promised) exit for Berlusconi. Italy did sell $5 billion of one-year bonds yesterday but at a rate of 6%, up from 3.5% just one month ago. European sovereign debt is the new subprime market. Crude oil is up $.68 in early trade and is heading for its best one-week run since 2009. Crude oil is just one of many contradictions that are currently in play.
Tie up your loose ends and enjoy the weekend.
Week of November 07 - November 11
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Nov | 15:00 | Consumer Credit | Sep | $5.0B | $5.0B | -$9.5B | ||
| 07 | ||||||||
| Nov | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 11/05 | NA | NA | +0.2% | ||
| 09 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Wholesale | Sep | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | ||
| 09 | Inventories | |||||||
| Nov | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 11/05 | NA | NA | 1.826M | ||
| 09 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 11/05 | 400K | 400K | 397K | ||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| 10 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 10/29 | 3700K | 3690K | 3683K | ||
| 10 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Export Prices ex-ag. | Oct | NA | NA | 0.3% | ||
| 10 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Import Prices ex-oil | Oct | NA | NA | 0.2% | ||
| 10 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Trade Balance | Sep | -$46.0B | -$45.8B | -$45.6B | ||
| 10 | ||||||||
| Nov | 14:00 | Treasury Budget | Oct | NA | -$105B | - | ||
| 10 | $140.4B | |||||||
| Nov | 09:55 | Mich Sentiment | Nov | 60.0 | 61.5 | 60.9 | ||
| 11 | ||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Dec ES | D | 1174.50 | 1212.75 | 1222 | 1260 | 1285.00 | 1319.00 |
| Dec | U | 2223.50 | 2287.50 | 2278 | 2336 | 2406.50 | 2461.50 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Dec | U | 122.00 | 125.01 | 128.54 | 129.42 | 131.50 | 135.60 |
| Yen | |||||||
| Dec EC | D | 132.85 | 135.30 | 134.93 | 137.42 | 140.90 | 144.00 |
| Dec 10 | U | 126.24 | 128.16 | 129.27 | 130.27 | 131.14 | 132.20 |
| Year | |||||||
| Dec 30 | U | 133.21 | 137.11 | 140.07 | 142.21 | 143.29 | 146.25 |
| Year | |||||||
| Jan | D | 11.72 | 11.96 | 11.59 | 11.83 | 12.38 | 12.55 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| Dec | U | 6.20 | 6.38 | 6.39 | 6.56 | 6.66 | 6.77 |
| Corn | |||||||
| Dec | U | 1647 | 1701 | 1738 | 1778 | 1777 | 1823 |
| Gold | |||||||
| Dec | U | 30.55 | 32.35 | 33.37 | 34.58 | 35.69 | 37.24 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Dec | D | 331 | 347 | 331 | 342 | 371 | 387 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Dec | U | 87.08 | 90.75 | 95.87 | 99.02 | 96.51 | 98.60 |
| Crude | |||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.