Top Day Recommendations
11.14.11
No eco data releases this morning. Overnight, the focus has been on the Italian bond auction of five year notes. They went off at 6.29% versus 5.32% previously. Crude is lower on the idea of eco contraction with a soft economic landing in China and the possible occurrence of a recession in Europe if can’t contain its sovereign debt problem. Copper showing some strength this morning is support for equities.
The market will continue to trade headline to headline with Europe being the focus. As for the US, the PPI, CPI and retail sales will move the needle.
Week of November 14 - November 18
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | PPI | Oct | -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.8% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Core PPI | Oct | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Retail Sales | Oct | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Retail Sales ex-auto | Oct | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Empire Manufacturing | Nov | 0.0 | 0.0 | -8.48 | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Business Inventories | Sep | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Nov | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 11/12 | NA | NA | 10.3% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | CPI | Oct | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Core CPI | Oct | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | ||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Nov | 09:00 | Net Long-Term TIC | Sep | NA | NA | $57.9B | ||
| 16 | Flows | |||||||
| Nov | 09:15 | Industrial Production | Oct | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Nov | 09:15 | Capacity Utilization | Oct | 77.6% | 77.6% | 77.4% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | NAHB Housing | Nov | 18 | 18 | 18 | ||
| 16 | Market Index | |||||||
| Nov | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 11/12 | NA | NA | - | ||
| 16 | 1.370M | |||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 11/12 | 400K | 400K | 390K | ||
| 17 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 11/05 | 3650K | 3648K | 3615K | ||
| 17 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Housing Starts | Oct | 575K | 603K | 658K | ||
| 17 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Building Permits | Oct | 600K | 603K | 594K | ||
| 17 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Philadelphia Fed | Nov | 5.0 | 7.5 | 8.7 | ||
| 17 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Leading Indicators | Oct | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | ||
| 18 | ||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Dec ES | D | 1195.00 | 1228.00 | 1242 | 1273 | 1285.00 | 1308.50 |
| Dec | U | 2232.50 | 2291.00 | 2314.50 | 2373.50 | 2404.50 | 2458.50 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Dec | U | 127.29 | 128.46 | 128.99 | 130.08 | 130.34 | 131.05 |
| Yen | |||||||
| Dec EC | D | 133.23 | 135.35 | 136.19 | 138.36 | 139.08 | 140.69 |
| Dec 10 | U | 128.27 | 129.10 | 129.16 | 130.06 | 130.20 | 131.15 |
| Year | |||||||
| Dec 30 | PRD | 138.10 | 139.12 | 140.01 | 141.05 | 142.10 | 144.06 |
| Year | (D) | ||||||
| Jan | D | 11.324 | 11.54 | 11.68 | 11.87 | 12.10 | 12.44 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| Dec | D | 6.174 | 6.28 | 6.33 | 6.47 | 6.57 | 6.76 |
| Corn | |||||||
| Dec | U | 1708.80 | 1748.9 | 1758.3 | 1804.4 | 1816.7 | 1844.40 |
| Gold | |||||||
| Dec | U | 32.15 | 33.39 | 33.94 | 35.13 | 35.61 | 36.59 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Dec | D | 315 | 331 | 337 | 357 | 365 | 382 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Dec | U | 91.11 | 95.16 | 97.76 | 99.81 | 101.33 | 103.45 |
| Crude | |||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.