Top Day Recommendations
11.16.11
Today’s a fairly busy day in terms of economic releases. We get the consumer price index, net long-term tic flows which indicates foreign appetite for US debt, industrial production and capacity utilization here in the United States and crude oil inventory numbers. With the recent volatility in crude oil, the supply figures will be closely observed.
Overnight, more curious statements. Merkel says that the ECB doesn’t have the option to solve the problems of the euro zone; its mandate doesn’t authorize it. Does that mean that the ECB has the option to see the euro zone swirl down the drain? And speaking of being under pressure, new Greek Prime Minister Papademos is already facing a confidence vote. Is his chair warm yet? And finally notes from the Bank of England regarding systemic risk in the euro zone stalled out an overnight rally. Expect the market to remain bipolar.
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | PPI | Oct | -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.8% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Core PPI | Oct | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Retail Sales | Oct | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Retail Sales ex-auto | Oct | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Empire Manufacturing | Nov | 0.0 | 0.0 | -8.48 | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Business Inventories | Sep | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Nov | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 11/12 | NA | NA | 10.3% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | CPI | Oct | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Core CPI | Oct | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Nov | 09:00 | Net Long-Term TIC | Sep | NA | NA | $57.9B | ||
| 16 | Flows | |||||||
| Nov | 09:15 | Industrial Production | Oct | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Nov | 09:15 | Capacity Utilization | Oct | 77.6% | 77.6% | 77.4% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | NAHB Housing | Nov | 18 | 18 | 18 | ||
| 16 | Market Index | |||||||
| Nov | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 11/12 | NA | NA | - | ||
| 16 | 1.370M | |||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 11/12 | 400K | 400K | 390K | ||
| 17 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 11/05 | 3650K | 3648K | 3615K | ||
| 17 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Housing Starts | Oct | 575K | 603K | 658K | ||
| 17 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Building Permits | Oct | 600K | 603K | 594K | ||
| 17 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Philadelphia Fed | Nov | 5.0 | 7.5 | 8.7 | ||
| 17 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Leading Indicators | Oct | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | ||
| 18 | ||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Dec ES | D | 1195.00 | 1228.00 | 1222 | 1266 | 1285.00 | 1308.50 |
| Dec | U | 2232.50 | 2291.00 | 2321 | 2386 | 2404.50 | 2458.50 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Dec | U | 127.29 | 128.46 | 129.12 | 130.38 | 130.34 | 131.05 |
| Yen | |||||||
| Dec EC | D | 133.23 | 135.35 | 134.18 | 136.23 | 139.08 | 140.69 |
| Dec 10 | U | 128.27 | 129.10 | 130.02 | 131.02 | 130.20 | 131.15 |
| Year | |||||||
| Dec 30 | U | 138.10 | 139.12 | 140.30 | 143.07 | 142.10 | 144.06 |
| Year | |||||||
| Jan | U | 11.324 | 11.54 | 11.83 | 12.11 | 12.10 | 12.44 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| Dec | D | 6.174 | 6.28 | 6.35 | 6.50 | 6.57 | 6.76 |
| Corn | |||||||
| Dec | U | 1708.80 | 1748.9 | 1750 | 1793 | 1816.7 | 1844.40 |
| Gold | |||||||
| Dec | U | 32.15 | 33.39 | 33.85 | 34.94 | 35.61 | 36.59 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Dec | U | 315 | 331 | 342 | 353 | 365 | 382 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Dec | U | 91.11 | 95.16 | 96.58 | 100.30 | 101.33 | 103.45 |
| Crude | |||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.