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Phone: 800.840.5617
Phone: 312.920.0212
Fax: 855.994.4111


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9247 Broadway
Suite EE
Merrillville, IN 46410

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Wall Street is just a bit busy this morning

Top Day Recommendations

11.17.11

Wall Street is just a bit busy this morning. First, there’s a huge movie shoot on the steps of the Customs House building at Bowling Green. Extras, cranes, klieg lights, cameras, action. Meanwhile, one block away, the Spartans are ready to take on the Persians as 10,000 demonstrators, give or take a few, descend on Wall Street. The stock exchange is cordoned off. Barricades are in place. Getting into Starbucks requires a pat down. Since anger is the clash of desires and no one seems to know what they want statistically something could go wrong today. Of course we hope cooler heads prevail but hope isn’t a plan.

Meanwhile, markets were very unusual yesterday, specifically the parabolic move in crude oil. The reason for it was a reversal or planned reversal of the pipeline between Cushing, Oklahoma and the Gulf Coast. This effectively reduces the glut of oil in Cushing and promotes the flow from Canada and the Midwest to the refineries in the Gulf Coast where more than half the refining capability of the United States is located. This crushed the spread between Brent crude oil and West Texas intermediate which had been over $20 to just nine dollars. Short positions established on the belief that a euro zone recession severely reduce the off take of oil had to cover those positions to regardless of price sending crude oil higher by 3.2% on the day while Brent was actually down a day. Overnight, the

cost of borrowing for France has gone up and this has concerned markets, strengthened the dollar. Higher rates are a major negative for the non-interest-rate bearing asset known as gold and that’s down approximately $31 at this moment. Yesterdays commentary by Fitch regarding the euro zone crisis and its potential impact on US institutions was poorly timed going into today’s debt auctions for France Spain and Italy. It seems as though the ratings agencies are making up for sins of omission during the housing crisis of 08.

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Nov 08:30 PPI Oct   -0.2% -0.2% 0.8%  
15    
               
Nov 08:30 Core PPI Oct   0.2% 0.1% 0.2%  
15    
               
Nov 08:30 Retail Sales Oct   0.6% 0.4% 1.1%  
15    
               
Nov 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Oct   0.3% 0.2% 0.6%  
15    
               
Nov 08:30 Empire Manufacturing Nov   0.0 0.0 -8.48  
15    
               
Nov 10:00 Business Inventories Sep   0.0% 0.1% 0.5%  
15    
               
Nov 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 11/12   NA NA 10.3%  
16    
               
Nov 08:30 CPI Oct   0.1% 0.0% 0.3%  
16    
               
Nov 08:30 Core CPI Oct   0.1% 0.1% 0.1%  
16    
               
Nov 09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Sep   NA NA $57.9B  
16 Flows    
             
Nov 09:15 Industrial Production Oct   0.2% 0.4% 0.2%  
16    
               
Nov 09:15 Capacity Utilization Oct   77.6% 77.6% 77.4%  
16    
               
Nov 10:00 NAHB Housing Nov   18 18 18  
16 Market Index    
             
Nov 10:30 Crude Inventories 11/12   NA NA -  
16   1.370M  
             
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Nov 08:30 Initial Claims 11/12   400K 400K 390K  
17    
               
Nov 08:30 Continuing Claims 11/05   3650K 3648K 3615K  
17    
               
Nov 08:30 Housing Starts Oct   575K 603K 658K  
17    
               
Nov 08:30 Building Permits Oct   600K 603K 594K  
17    
               
Nov 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Nov   5.0 7.5 8.7  
17    
               
Nov 10:00 Leading Indicators Oct   0.3% 0.6% 0.2%  
18    
               

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

    Daily Support and Resistance  
               
  Trend WS2 WS1 DS DR WR1 WR2
Dec ES D 1195.00 1228.00 1221 1249 1285.00 1308.50
           
Dec U 2232.50 2291.00 2293.50 2352 2404.50 2458.50
           
Nasdaq              
Dec U 127.29 128.46 129.50 130.25 130.34 131.05
           
Yen              
Dec EC D 133.23 135.35 133.69 135.70 139.08 140.69
           
Dec 10 U 128.27 129.10 130.08 131.00 130.20 131.15
           
Year              
               
Dec 30 U 138.10 139.12 141.18 143.03 142.10 144.06
           
Year              
Jan U 11.324 11.54 11.79 11.99 12.10 12.44
           
Soybea              
ns              
Dec D 6.174 6.28 6.37 6.48 6.57 6.76
           
Corn              
Dec U 1708.80 1748.9 1741 1788 1816.7 1844.40
           
Gold              
Dec U 32.15 33.39 33.38 34.44 35.61 36.59
           
Silver              
Dec U 315 331 343 353 365 382
           
Copper              
Dec U 91.11 95.16 99.69 104.19 101.33 103.45
           
Crude              
               

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.