Top Day Recommendations
11.17.11
Wall Street is just a bit busy this morning. First, there’s a huge movie shoot on the steps of the Customs House building at Bowling Green. Extras, cranes, klieg lights, cameras, action. Meanwhile, one block away, the Spartans are ready to take on the Persians as 10,000 demonstrators, give or take a few, descend on Wall Street. The stock exchange is cordoned off. Barricades are in place. Getting into Starbucks requires a pat down. Since anger is the clash of desires and no one seems to know what they want statistically something could go wrong today. Of course we hope cooler heads prevail but hope isn’t a plan.
Meanwhile, markets were very unusual yesterday, specifically the parabolic move in crude oil. The reason for it was a reversal or planned reversal of the pipeline between Cushing, Oklahoma and the Gulf Coast. This effectively reduces the glut of oil in Cushing and promotes the flow from Canada and the Midwest to the refineries in the Gulf Coast where more than half the refining capability of the United States is located. This crushed the spread between Brent crude oil and West Texas intermediate which had been over $20 to just nine dollars. Short positions established on the belief that a euro zone recession severely reduce the off take of oil had to cover those positions to regardless of price sending crude oil higher by 3.2% on the day while Brent was actually down a day. Overnight, the
cost of borrowing for France has gone up and this has concerned markets, strengthened the dollar. Higher rates are a major negative for the non-interest-rate bearing asset known as gold and that’s down approximately $31 at this moment. Yesterdays commentary by Fitch regarding the euro zone crisis and its potential impact on US institutions was poorly timed going into today’s debt auctions for France Spain and Italy. It seems as though the ratings agencies are making up for sins of omission during the housing crisis of 08.
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | PPI | Oct | -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.8% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Core PPI | Oct | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Retail Sales | Oct | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Retail Sales ex-auto | Oct | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Empire Manufacturing | Nov | 0.0 | 0.0 | -8.48 | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Business Inventories | Sep | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Nov | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 11/12 | NA | NA | 10.3% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | CPI | Oct | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Core CPI | Oct | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Nov | 09:00 | Net Long-Term TIC | Sep | NA | NA | $57.9B | ||
| 16 | Flows | |||||||
| Nov | 09:15 | Industrial Production | Oct | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Nov | 09:15 | Capacity Utilization | Oct | 77.6% | 77.6% | 77.4% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | NAHB Housing | Nov | 18 | 18 | 18 | ||
| 16 | Market Index | |||||||
| Nov | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 11/12 | NA | NA | - | ||
| 16 | 1.370M | |||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 11/12 | 400K | 400K | 390K | ||
| 17 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 11/05 | 3650K | 3648K | 3615K | ||
| 17 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Housing Starts | Oct | 575K | 603K | 658K | ||
| 17 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Building Permits | Oct | 600K | 603K | 594K | ||
| 17 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Philadelphia Fed | Nov | 5.0 | 7.5 | 8.7 | ||
| 17 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Leading Indicators | Oct | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | ||
| 18 | ||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Dec ES | D | 1195.00 | 1228.00 | 1221 | 1249 | 1285.00 | 1308.50 |
| Dec | U | 2232.50 | 2291.00 | 2293.50 | 2352 | 2404.50 | 2458.50 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Dec | U | 127.29 | 128.46 | 129.50 | 130.25 | 130.34 | 131.05 |
| Yen | |||||||
| Dec EC | D | 133.23 | 135.35 | 133.69 | 135.70 | 139.08 | 140.69 |
| Dec 10 | U | 128.27 | 129.10 | 130.08 | 131.00 | 130.20 | 131.15 |
| Year | |||||||
| Dec 30 | U | 138.10 | 139.12 | 141.18 | 143.03 | 142.10 | 144.06 |
| Year | |||||||
| Jan | U | 11.324 | 11.54 | 11.79 | 11.99 | 12.10 | 12.44 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| Dec | D | 6.174 | 6.28 | 6.37 | 6.48 | 6.57 | 6.76 |
| Corn | |||||||
| Dec | U | 1708.80 | 1748.9 | 1741 | 1788 | 1816.7 | 1844.40 |
| Gold | |||||||
| Dec | U | 32.15 | 33.39 | 33.38 | 34.44 | 35.61 | 36.59 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Dec | U | 315 | 331 | 343 | 353 | 365 | 382 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Dec | U | 91.11 | 95.16 | 99.69 | 104.19 | 101.33 | 103.45 |
| Crude | |||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.