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Phone: 312.920.0212
Fax: 855.994.4111


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Merrillville, IN 46410

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Stay optimistic

Top Day Recommendations

11.18.11

Overnight, new Greek Prime Minister Papdemos gets cabinet approval for a Greek budget calling for a 5.4% deficit. This at least has calmed markets momentarily. Yesterday was not pretty with focus been applied to European bond yields, especially the fact that Spain sold 10 year paper with a 7% yield. 7% seems to be the tipping point. Above this level, governments will find it very difficult to fund themselves.

Gold’s weakness yesterday was due to the possibility of IMF sales.

Occupy Wall Street is becoming virulent. The escalating frustration of everyone involved is leading to actions the actors ultimately regret. The First Amendment is being badly interpreted. It gives the right to free speech and the right to congregate to express that speech but it doesn’t supply the right to occupy or the right to riotously express speech or damage property in that expression or threaten the common weal. Hindering the commerce of this city is counterproductive for everyone and comes with a societal cost no one can afford to pay.

Stay optimistic. Enjoy the weekend.

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Nov 08:30 PPI Oct   -0.2% -0.2% 0.8%  
15    
               
Nov 08:30 Core PPI Oct   0.2% 0.1% 0.2%  
15    
               
Nov 08:30 Retail Sales Oct   0.6% 0.4% 1.1%  
15    
               
Nov 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Oct   0.3% 0.2% 0.6%  
15    
               
Nov 08:30 Empire Manufacturing Nov   0.0 0.0 -8.48  
15    
               
Nov 10:00 Business Inventories Sep   0.0% 0.1% 0.5%  
15    
               
Nov 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 11/12   NA NA 10.3%  
16    
               
Nov 08:30 CPI Oct   0.1% 0.0% 0.3%  
16    
               
Nov 08:30 Core CPI Oct   0.1% 0.1% 0.1%  
16    
               
Nov 09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Sep   NA NA $57.9B  
16 Flows    
             
Nov 09:15 Industrial Production Oct   0.2% 0.4% 0.2%  
16    
               
Nov 09:15 Capacity Utilization Oct   77.6% 77.6% 77.4%  
16    
               
Nov 10:00 NAHB Housing Nov   18 18 18  
16 Market Index    
             
Nov 10:30 Crude Inventories 11/12   NA NA -  
16   1.370M  
             
Nov 08:30 Initial Claims 11/12   400K 400K 390K  
17    
               
Nov 08:30 Continuing Claims 11/05   3650K 3648K 3615K  
17    
               
Nov 08:30 Housing Starts Oct   575K 603K 658K  
17    
               
Nov 08:30 Building Permits Oct   600K 603K 594K  
17    
               
Nov 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Nov   5.0 7.5 8.7  
17    
               
Nov 10:00 Leading Indicators Oct   0.3% 0.6% 0.2%  
18    
               

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

  Trend WS2 WS1 DS DR WR1 WR2
Dec ES D 1195.00 1228.00 1200.25 1235.00 1285.00 1308.50
           
Dec PRD 2232.50 2291.00 2238.50 2315.00 2404.50 2458.50
           
Nasdaq (D)            
Dec U 127.29 128.46 129.84 130.28 130.34 131.05
           
Yen              
Dec EC D 133.23 135.35 134.09 135.29 139.08 140.69
           
Dec 10 U 128.27 129.10 130.13 131.03 130.20 131.15
           
Year              
               
Dec 30 U 138.10 139.12 142.07 144.02 142.10 144.06
           
Year              
Jan U 11.324 11.54 11.56 11.86 12.10 12.44
           
Soybea              
ns              
Dec D 6.174 6.28 6.02 6.34 6.57 6.76
           
Corn              
Dec PRD 1708.80 1748.9 1698 1755 1816.7 1844.40
           
Gold (D)            
Dec PRD 32.15 33.39 30.36 33.30 35.61 36.59
           
Silver (D)            
Dec PRD 315 331 332 346 365 382
           
Copper (D)            
Jan U 91.11 95.16 97.05 102.08 101.33 103.45
           
Crude              
               

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.