Top Day Recommendations
11.22.11
Today is a pretty active day for this holiday shortened week. Gross domestic product comes out at 830 along with the deflator or the implied rate of inflation. Then at two o’clock we get the minutes from the last Federal Reserve open market committee meeting which provides anecdotal evidence and a look into the mind of the committee. Crude oil got a bit of a bump higher overnight as United States expands sanctions against Iran. The crud can trade to 99.26 before heading lower again. Stocks are kind of a mess with the S&P unchanged and the NASDAQ lower. Gold was under pressure yesterday from margin considerations, forced liquidations in the stronger dollar as those technical considerations. As mentioned 1658 is weekly support.
Q3 GDP is 2.0%, a contraction against a prior estimate of 2.5%. Prices or the deflator is steady. Consumption was slightly lower.
Week of November 21 - November 25
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Existing Home Sales | Oct | 5.00M | 4.85M | 4.91M | ||
| 21 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | GDP - Second | Q3 | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | ||
| 22 | Estimate | |||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | GDP Deflator - | Q3 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | ||
| 22 | Second Estimate | |||||||
| Nov | 14:00 | FOMC Minutes | Nov. 2 | |||||
| 22 | ||||||||
| Nov | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 11/19 | NA | NA | -10.0% | ||
| 23 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 11/19 | 400K | 391K | 388K | ||
| 23 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 11/12 | 3650K | 3620K | 3608K | ||
| 23 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Personal Income | Oct | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | ||
| 23 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Personal Spending | Oct | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | ||
| 23 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | PCE Prices - Core | Oct | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | ||
| 23 | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Durable Orders | Oct | -1.0% | -1.0% | -0.6% | -0.8% | |
| 23 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Durable Orders -ex | Oct | 0.3% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | |
| 23 | Transportation | |||||||
| Nov | 09:55 | Michigan Sentiment - | Nov | 63.5 | 64.2 | 64.2 | ||
| 23 | Final | |||||||
| Nov | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 11/19 | NA | NA | - | ||
| 23 | 1.056M | |||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Dec ES | D | 1166.50 | 1206 | 1178 | 1206.25 | 1254 | 1294.50 |
| Dec | D | 2165.75 | 2238.75 | 2185.50 | 2242.50 | 2333.00 | 2416.25 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Dec | U | 128.02 | 129.01 | 129.70 | 130.27 | 130.83 | 131.66 |
| Yen | |||||||
| Dec EC | D | 132.011 | 133.57 | 134.50 | 135.50 | 137.31 | 139.49 |
| Dec 10 | U | 128.29 | 129.19 | 130.11 | 130.24 | 130.31 | 131.20 |
| Year | |||||||
| Dec 30 | U | 138.18 | 140.22 | 142.31 | 144.03 | 144.09 | 145.24 |
| Year | |||||||
| Jan | D | 11.22 | 11.45 | 11.37 | 11.66 | 11.98 | 12.29 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| Dec | D | 5.73 | 6.06 | 5.902 | 6.082 | 6.38 | 6.66 |
| Corn | |||||||
| Dec | U | 1658 | 1692 | 1654.60 | 1714.00 | 1778 | 1831 |
| Gold | |||||||
| Dec | U | 28.76 | 30.59 | 30.37 | 32.13 | 34.58 | 36.75 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Dec | U | 318 | 329 | 324 | 338 | 354 | 369 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Jan | D | 92.61 | 95.20 | 95.48 | 98.10 | 101.87 | 105.95 |
| Crude | |||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.