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Merrillville, IN 46410

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Gold was under pressure yesterday

Top Day Recommendations

11.22.11

Today is a pretty active day for this holiday shortened week. Gross domestic product comes out at 830 along with the deflator or the implied rate of inflation. Then at two o’clock we get the minutes from the last Federal Reserve open market committee meeting which provides anecdotal evidence and a look into the mind of the committee. Crude oil got a bit of a bump higher overnight as United States expands sanctions against Iran. The crud can trade to 99.26 before heading lower again. Stocks are kind of a mess with the S&P unchanged and the NASDAQ lower. Gold was under pressure yesterday from margin considerations, forced liquidations in the stronger dollar as those technical considerations. As mentioned 1658 is weekly support.

Q3 GDP is 2.0%, a contraction against a prior estimate of 2.5%. Prices or the deflator is steady. Consumption was slightly lower.

Week of November 21 - November 25

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Nov 10:00 Existing Home Sales Oct   5.00M 4.85M 4.91M  
21    
               
Nov 08:30 GDP - Second Q3   2.3% 2.5% 2.5%  
22 Estimate    
             
Nov 08:30 GDP Deflator - Q3   2.5% 2.5% 2.5%  
22 Second Estimate    
             
Nov 14:00 FOMC Minutes Nov. 2          
22          
               
Nov 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 11/19   NA NA -10.0%  
23    
               
Nov 08:30 Initial Claims 11/19   400K 391K 388K  
23    
               
Nov 08:30 Continuing Claims 11/12   3650K 3620K 3608K  
23    
               
Nov 08:30 Personal Income Oct   0.3% 0.3% 0.1%  
23    
               
Nov 08:30 Personal Spending Oct   0.5% 0.3% 0.6%  
23    
               
Nov 08:30 PCE Prices - Core Oct   0.1% 0.1% 0.1%  
23    
               
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Nov 08:30 Durable Orders Oct   -1.0% -1.0% -0.6% -0.8%
23  
               
Nov 08:30 Durable Orders -ex Oct   0.3% 0.0% 1.8% 1.7%
23 Transportation  
             
Nov 09:55 Michigan Sentiment - Nov   63.5 64.2 64.2  
23 Final    
             
Nov 10:30 Crude Inventories 11/19   NA NA -  
23   1.056M  
             

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

    Daily Support and Resistance  
               
  Trend WS2 WS1 DS DR WR1 WR2
Dec ES D 1166.50 1206 1178 1206.25 1254 1294.50
           
Dec D 2165.75 2238.75 2185.50 2242.50 2333.00 2416.25
           
Nasdaq              
Dec U 128.02 129.01 129.70 130.27 130.83 131.66
           
Yen              
Dec EC D 132.011 133.57 134.50 135.50 137.31 139.49
           
Dec 10 U 128.29 129.19 130.11 130.24 130.31 131.20
           
Year              
               
Dec 30 U 138.18 140.22 142.31 144.03 144.09 145.24
           
Year              
Jan D 11.22 11.45 11.37 11.66 11.98 12.29
           
Soybea              
ns              
Dec D 5.73 6.06 5.902 6.082 6.38 6.66
           
Corn              
Dec U 1658 1692 1654.60 1714.00 1778 1831
           
Gold              
Dec U 28.76 30.59 30.37 32.13 34.58 36.75
           
Silver              
Dec U 318 329 324 338 354 369
           
Copper              
Jan D 92.61 95.20 95.48 98.10 101.87 105.95
           
Crude              
               

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.