Top Day Recommendations
In an attempt to restore confidence in the US Banking system, the Federal Reserve will be conducting stress tests on 31 leading economic institutions. The test will determine how well these institutions could weather stock prices back at 2008 lows, unemployment at 13% and housing values 21% lower than current levels. Of course these tests give the market the impression of the inevitability of these conditions in the real world and consequently, with the defacto four day holiday looming, risk is definitely off the table this morning. Overnight, a German bond auction did not go off as well as planned in terms of bid to cover ratios and the EC and oil are lower consequently. French and Belgium interest rates higher overnight.
There may be earlier closings for markets you trade today so check with trading desks. Friday is also a short session. Of course the Pac Rim and Europe will be humming.
Lots of eco figures today with claims, spending, orders and oil supply all released.
Be thankful for Thanksgiving. The history of Thanksgiving makes for interesting reading. Who knew that Abraham Lincoln would be involved?
Week of November 21 - November 25
|Nov||10:00||Existing Home Sales||Oct||5.00M||4.85M||4.91M|
|Nov||08:30||GDP - Second||Q3||2.3%||2.5%||2.5%|
|Nov||08:30||GDP Deflator -||Q3||2.5%||2.5%||2.5%|
|Nov||14:00||FOMC Minutes||Nov. 2|
|Nov||07:00||MBA Mortgage Index||11/19||NA||NA||-10.0%|
|Nov||08:30||PCE Prices - Core||Oct||0.1%||0.1%||0.1%|
|Nov||08:30||Durable Orders -ex||Oct||0.3%||0.0%||1.8%||1.7%|
|Nov||09:55||Michigan Sentiment -||Nov||63.5||64.2||64.2|
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
|R1 is Weekly Good Resistance|
|R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance|
|Levels are for the most active futures contract|
|Daily Support and Resistance|
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.